Shrinking cities due to low birthrates and aging populations represent a significant urban planning issue. The research question of this study is: which economic, social, and educational factors ...affect population decline in Japanese shrinking cities? By modeling shrinking cities using the case of Japanese cities, this study aims to clarify the indicators that affect the population change rate. The study employed Bayesian network analysis, a machine learning technique, using a dataset of economic, social, and educational indicators. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that social and educational indicators affect the population decline rate. Surprisingly, the impact of educational indicators is more substantial than that of economic indicators such as the financial strength index. Considering the limitations in fiscal expenditures, increasing investment in education might help solve the problem of shrinking cities because of low birthrates and aging populations. The results provide essential insights and can function as a planning support system.
This study aimed to clarify the effect of walkability on urban sustainability, according to the types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan fringe area. For this purpose, this study ...analyzed the statistical causal relationship between the Walkability Index and the Ecological Footprint to Biocapacity (EF/BC) ratio of each residential cluster. The EF/BC ratio is the ratio of the ecological footprint of the biocapacity of the residential clusters. As a result, the effect of walkability on urban sustainability was clarified depending upon the types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan fringe area. Specifically, it was found that the Walkability Index negatively affects the EF/BC ratio in the sprawl cluster. This suggests that, in the sprawl cluster, active efforts to improve the Walkability Index can contribute to the realization of SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda). However, Walkability Index has a strong positive effect on the EF/BC ratio in the old new-town cluster, etc. For the residential clusters, the results of this study suggested that there is a necessity to improve urban sustainability through approaches other than improving Walkability.
This study aims to clarify the statistical causal relationship between the locations of urban facilities and forecasted population changes according to types of residential clusters in the Osaka ...Metropolitan Fringe areas. This paper’s background is the location optimization plan policy formulated by the Japanese MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in 2015. The methods combined urban ecological analysis, cohort analysis, and Bayesian network analysis. Using the Bayesian network analysis, the causal relationship between the forecasted population change ratio and the urban facility location was analyzed. The results suggest the location of urban facilities for each residential cluster that will prevent a rapid population decline in the future. Specifically, in the sprawl cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to medical facilities will sustain the future population, while in the old new-town cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to train stations will best sustain the future population. However, in the public housing cluster, residential areas more distant from regional resources will best sustain the future population. Therefore, it is worth considering different urban designs in the old new-town and public housing clusters, rather than the location optimization plan policy.
Control of human mobility is one of the most effective measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the imposition of emergency restrictions had significant ...negative impacts on citizens’ daily lives. As vaccination progresses, we need to consider more effective measures to control the spread of the infection. The research question of this study is as follows: Does the control of home range correlate with a reduction in the number of infected people during the COVID-19 pandemic? This study aims to clarify the correlation between home range and the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ibaraki City. Home ranges are analyzed by the Minimum Convex Polygon method using mobile phone GPS location history data. We analyzed the time series cross-correlation between home range lengths and the number of infected people. Results reveal a slight positive correlation between home range and the number of infected people after one week during the COVID-19 pandemic. Regarding home range length, the cross-correlation coefficient is 0.4030 even at a lag level of six weeks, which has the most significant coefficient. Thus, a decrease in the home range is a weak factor correlated with a reduction in the number of infected people. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature by evaluating key public health challenges from the perspective of controliing the spread of the COVID-19 infectuion. Its findings has implications for policy makers, practitioners, and urban scientists seeking to promote urban sustainability.
The results of this paper clarify that the residents evaluated the tourism-gentrification caused by guesthouses negatively in a case study of Shutoku District in the central area of Kyoto City. The ...tourism-gentrification caused by guesthouses is defined as a phenomenon in which traditional communities are destroyed as part of the process of tourism-related gentrification. Three points are confirmed by this research. First, gentrification occurred from 2015 to 2019. Second, the residents evaluated it negatively. Third, there is a possibility that residents and guesthouses can form a symbiotic relationship if methods such as the employment of 'resident managers' are utilised.
In Japan, where the population is declining and aging significantly, walkability has attracted attention as a way to improve residents’ lifestyles. Therefore, it is essential to identify the ...residential clusters where walkability improvement would contribute to the maintenance of the population in order to select urban areas for the implementation of walkable designs. This study aimed to identify the residential clusters in which walkability affects the future population from the perspective of real estate prices. The reason for focusing on real estate prices is that they are expected to be a confounding factor connecting walkability and the future population. The method we used was to analyze the structural equation modeling of the impact of walkability index, real estate prices, and future population change ratio. This analysis was based on the neighborhood association scale. This study clarified that effective residential clusters are the business center cluster and the sprawl cluster. In the business center cluster and the sprawl cluster, the price of apartments for sale is the real estate value, through which the walkability index positively impacts the future population change ratio. This means that it is expected to contribute to the maintenance of the future population through a combination of walkable designs and housing policies that encourage people to change their residence types to apartments for sale when rebuilding old building stock using the location optimization plan policy.
Tourism gentrification has become a social issue in tourist cities worldwide. This paper’s research question is as follows: has tourism gentrification caused a population decline in tourist cities? ...This study aims to clarify the statistical relationship between the population decline and the location of accommodation on the neighborhood association scale. It analyzes Kyoto City, which is one of the most famous tourist cities worldwide. The statistical relationship between two types of accommodation—hotels and simple accommodation—is analyzed, using geographic natural experiments. The study concludes that the neighborhood association with simple accommodation decreased the population more significantly than that without simple accommodation in the historical center of Kyoto City. This result indicates that the tourism gentrification had caused a population decline in the historical center of Kyoto City. Moreover, it was found that tourism gentrification has affected the outside center of Kyoto City. The population decline might be due to simple accommodation being converted from houses due to tourism gentrification. This study’s results suggest the need for urban policy to regulate zoning for the locations of simple accommodation.
This study aims to clarify the impact of the urban exodus triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic on shrinking cities in the Osaka metropolitan area, where a declining population is caused by population ...aging. Analyzing the Osaka metropolitan area enables us to clarify how cities are shrinking due to the urban exodus. This study analyzed the monthly population data of three types of municipalities: ordinance-designed/regional hub cities, ordinary cities, and towns/villages. In conclusion, the study clarified that population change due to the urban exodus occurred in the ordinance-designed/regional hub and ordinary cities from summer to autumn 2020. The most significant population increases occurred in the municipalities in the Osaka metropolitan fringe area, which are located more than 30 km away from the center of the Osaka metropolitan area. The conclusion is important because the population increased not only in the ordinance-designed cities but also in the ordinance-designed/regional hub cities, unlike the rest of the metropolitan area. The result is the new insights unique to the Osaka metropolitan area that this study clarified. The urban exodus contributes to the need for the local governments of shrinking cities to maintain the urban services necessary for people’s daily lives.
The purpose of this study was to identify the walkable streets where traffic behavior changed according to each residential cluster during the COVID-19 pandemic. By elucidating the changes, it is ...possible to identify streets that should be redesigned following the changes in traffic behavior in relation to human mobility. This study analyzed Ibaraki City, a suburban city located in the Osaka Metropolitan Area. The analysis compared the panel data of the GPS Location History for April 2020 and April 2019. The analysis method used was Empirical Bayesian kriging. The results show that the speed significantly increased in the dense, sprawl, mountain, and old NT clusters. It was also found that the number of cyclists increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest a need to design walkable streets according to each residential cluster for the post-COVID-19 pandemic era. For example, some car lanes need to be converted to bike lanes in the main neighborhood to create walkable streets in the clusters.
COVID-19 significantly impacted residents' health status and daily activities in suburban residential areas. This study elucidated the relationship between health scores, daily activities, and ...housing types. The method was a questionnaire survey of 378 residents of suburban residential estates in Teraikedai, Kongo District, Japan, during the COVID-19 self-isolation period. Since the survey cohort was New Town, the suburban residential area identified by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism was targeted. The questions included participant demographics, the Basic Survey on Japanese Social Life, and the SF-12v2. The Tukey-Kramer HSD test and stepwise decreasing logistic regression were used for the statistical analysis of the responses. The COVID-19 self-isolation led to lower physical and mental health scores than usual, and the health scores of residents living in detached houses were better than those of residents in apartments, both those over the age of 65 and those under the age of 65. There was also a correlation between residents' daily activities and their health scores. For those aged under 65 years, the health scores of residents living in detached houses were significantly better than those living in apartments, indicating that daily activities such as sports and recreational hobbies may contribute to health scores.
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