•E-bike ownership in the Netherlands strongly reduces conventional bicycle use, but also car and public transport use.•E-bike ownership is negatively associated conventional bicycle ownership, but ...not with car ownership.•Car owners are more willing to use the e-bike as an alternative compared to the conventional bicycle or public transport.•E-bike ownership has a generative effect on the total distance travelled.
After Asian countries, the e-bike is now also on the rise in many Western countries. Related to this development, an important question posed by scholars is to what extent the adoption of the e-bike will lead to environmental and health benefits. These will be present if the e-bike replaces travel by motorized modes. Surveying the literature addressing this issue, empirical studies conducted to date do indeed reach the conclusion that the e-bike is substituting travel by car. However, a general shortcoming of empirical studies is that substitution is assessed by asking direct questions to e-bike owners. The aim of the present study is to address this limitation and statistically assess the effect of e-bike ownership on various indicators of travel behavior. To this end, a conceptual model is developed, which is specified as a structural equation model and estimated using data from the last three national mobility surveys in the Netherlands (2013, 2014 and 2015). The results show that e-bike ownership strongly reduces the use of the conventional bicycle, but also, to a lesser extent, car and public transport use. Secondly, e-bike owners reduce their car and public transport use more than conventional bicycle owners. And thirdly, on the level of vehicle ownership, the e-bike acts as a substitute for the conventional bicycle and does not act as a substitute for the car. Overall, the results shed some light on the health and environmental benefits of the uptake of e-bikes in the Netherlands.
The onset of autonomous driving has provided fertile ground for discussions about ethics in recent years. These discussions are heavily documented in the scientific literature and have mainly ...revolved around extreme traffic situations depicted as moral dilemmas, i.e. situations in which the autonomous vehicle (AV) is required to make a difficult moral choice. Quite surprisingly, little is known about the ethical issues in focus by the AV industry. General claims have been made about the struggles of companies regarding the ethical issues of AVs but these lack proper substantiation. As private companies are highly influential on the development and acceptance of AV technologies, a meaningful debate about the ethics of AVs should take into account the ethical issues prioritised by industry. In order to assess the awareness and engagement of industry on the ethics of AVs, we inspected the narratives in the official business and technical reports of companies with an AV testing permit in California. The findings of our literature and industry review suggest that: (i) given the plethora of ethical issues addressed in the reports, autonomous driving companies seem to be aware of and engaged in the ethics of autonomous driving technology; (ii) scientific literature and industry reports prioritise safety and cybersecurity; (iii) scientific and industry communities agree that AVs will not eliminate the risk of accidents; (iv) scientific literature on AV technology ethics is dominated by discussions about the trolley problem; (v) moral dilemmas resembling trolley cases are not addressed in industry reports but there are nuanced allusions that unravel underlying concerns about these extreme traffic situations; (vi) autonomous driving companies have different approaches with respect to the authority of remote operators; and (vii) companies seem invested in a lowest liability risk design strategy relying on rules and regulations, expedite investigations, and crash/collision avoidance algorithms.
In this paper, possible accessibility impacts of fully automated vehicles (AVs) are explored. A conceptual framework for those impacts is developed based on the model of four accessibility components ...(i.e. land use, transport, temporal and individual) of Geurs and van Wee (2004). Q-method is applied among a sample of seventeen international accessibility experts to explore heterogeneity among experts with respect to the impacts of AVs on accessibility, and study different views and clusters of experts. Q-method statements are deductively categorized according to four accessibility components of the conceptual framework. Three viewpoints were extracted, indicating that experts expect AVs to influence accessibility through all four accessibility components. Viewpoint A expects that accessibility benefits stemming from AVs will be highly uncertain, mainly because of induced travel demand that will likely cancel out travel time and cost savings of AVs in the long term. Viewpoint B anticipates that accessibility changes because of AVs will have two opposing implications for urban form: densification of city center and further urban sprawl. Finally, viewpoint C expects that those who can afford an AV will mainly enjoy AVs benefits, thus AVs will have more negative than positive implications for social equity.
•Accessibility impacts of fully automated vehicles (AVs) are explored.•Q-method is applied among a sample of seventeen international accessibility experts.•AVs accessibility benefits are highly uncertain.•AVs can induce densification of city center and further urban sprawl.•AVs accessibility benefits will not be equally distributed among different social groups.
Active travel (walking and cycling) is increasingly being recognised as a potentially effective means of increasing physical activity levels and thereby contribute to physical and mental health. To ...date, however, much of the empirical evidence related to the health benefits of active travel is based on cross-sectional data. As such, the direction of causation remains uncertain, i.e. does active travel lead to improved health or vice-versa, are healthier individuals more inclined to participate in active travel? This study aims to systematically assess the bidirectional relationships between active travel, on the one hand, and two relevant health outcomes on the other, namely body-mass index (BMI) and mental health.
To this end, random-intercept cross-lagged panel models are estimated using data from 10 waves (years) of the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social sciences panel, a panel that is representative for the Dutch population. Active travel was assessed using a measure of walking frequency and mental health was measured using the 5-item mental health inventory (MHI-5).
The results indicate that active travel does not affect later BMI levels, but, vice versa, BMI does negatively influence later levels of active travel, a pattern that is in line with earlier research related to general physical activity and BMI. Regarding mental health, the pattern is exactly opposite. In this case, the effect of active travel on mental health is significant, while the reverse effect is not (at the 5% level of statistical significance).
Overall, the results underline the notion that cross-sectional estimates of the effects between active travel and health outcomes should be interpreted with care, as they can be the result of effects in either direction. In addition, the results suggest that the uptake of active travel may be increased by decreasing BMI levels in the population, e.g. via dietary programs.
•The amount of active travel does not affect later BMI, while BMI does negatively influence later levels of active travel.•Active travel positively affects later mental health, while mental health does not influence later levels of active travel.•Cross-sectional estimates of the effects between active travel and health should be interpreted with care.•The uptake of active travel may be increased by decreasing BMI levels in the population.
Tourism experiences, also called vacations, are known to boost subjective well-being, although it has been argued that the effects are primarily affective in nature and short-lived. We argue that ...this is a methodological artifact due to the brief duration—1 year or less—of almost all extant longitudinal studies of tourism experience effects. Based on broaden-and-build and personal resource theories, we hypothesize that tourism experiences contribute to both affective and cognitive components of subjective well-being over a multi-year timespan. Using random intercept cross-lagged panel models, we tested these hypotheses in 8 years of panel data based on a representative sample of the population of the Netherlands. We found both between- and within-individual effects of vacation frequency on cognitive as well as affective well-being. More frequent vacationers experienced higher life satisfaction and lower negative affect, while the average participant also experienced slightly higher life satisfaction and positive affect following a year with higher vacation frequency. Increases in life satisfaction also predicted more frequent vacationing in a following year, consistent with an “upward spiral” pattern of improving well-being based on accumulation of positive experiences, as suggested by the broaden-and-build theory.
This paper focusses on travel socialisation by examining the effect of immigrant origin on cycling in two distinct European cycling cultures: Denmark and the Netherlands. Based on data from both ...countries’ national travel surveys, the empirical analyses show that people of immigrant origin cycle less compared to natives. While in Denmark this effect is significant only for people of non-Western origin, in the Netherlands it is also true for people of Western origin, probably because they originate to a greater extent from non-European countries (e.g., Indonesia). In the Netherlands, the effect of non-Western origin is larger for women than for men, while we do not find a significant gender interaction in the Danish data. Individuals with residence in neighbourhoods with a higher share of people of non-Western origin are less likely to cycle, probably as the national norm to cycle is less salient here. The results cannot be fully explained by differences in socioeconomic status, car access, or level of urbanisation. We assume that cultural norms mediated by parents play a relevant role. The results lend support to policies focused on stimulating the use of the bicycle among immigrants and especially women of non-Western origin.
In recent years, the e-bike has become increasingly popular in many European countries. With higher speeds and less effort needed, the e-bike is a promising mode of transport to many, and it is ...considered a good alternative for certain car trips by policy-makers and planners. A major limitation of many studies that investigate such substitution effects of the e-bike, is their reliance on cross-sectional data which do not allow an assessment of within-person travel mode changes. As a consequence, there is currently no consensus about the e-bike’s potential to replace car trips. Furthermore, there has been little research focusing on heterogeneity among e-bike users. In this respect, it is likely that different groups exist that use the e-bike for different reasons (e.g. leisure vs commute travel), something which will also influence possible substitution patterns. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways: (1) it presents a statistical analysis to assess the extent to which e-bike trips are substituting trips by other travel modes based on longitudinal data; (2) it reveals different user groups among the e-bike population. A Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model is estimated using five waves of data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel. Furthermore, a Latent Class Analysis is performed using data from the Dutch national travel survey. Results show that, when using longitudinal data, the substitution effects between e-bike and the competing travel modes of car and public transport are not as significant as reported in earlier research. In general, e-bike trips only significantly reduce conventional bicycle trips in the Netherlands, which can be regarded an unwanted effect from a policy-viewpoint. For commuting, the e-bike also substitutes car trips. Furthermore, results show that there are five different user groups with their own distinct behaviour patterns and socio-demographic characteristics. They also show that groups that use the e-bike primarily for commuting or education are growing at a much higher rate than groups that mainly use the e-bike for leisure and shopping purposes.
Europe recently experienced a large influx of refugees, spurring much public debate about the admission and integration of refugees and migrants into society. Previous research based on ...cross-sectional data found that European citizens generally favour asylum seekers with high employability, severe vulnerabilities, and Christians over Muslims. These preferences and attitudes were found to be homogeneous across countries and socio-demographic groups. Here, we do not study the general acceptance of asylum seekers, but the acceptance of refugee and migrant homes in citizens' vicinity and how it changes over time. Based on a repeated stated choice experiment on preferences for refugee and migrant homes, we show that the initially promoted "welcome culture" towards refugees in Germany was not reflected in the views of a majority of a sample of German citizens who rather disapproved refugee homes in their vicinity. Their preferences have not changed between November 2015, the peak of "welcome culture," and November 2016, after political debates, media reporting and public discourse had shifted towards limiting admission of immigrants. A minority of one fifth of the sample population, who were initially rather approving of refugee and migrant homes being established in their vicinity, were more likely to change their preferences towards a rather disapproving position in 2016. Experience of contact with refugees and migrants, higher education, and general pro-immigration attitudes explain acceptance of refugee and migrant homes as well as preference stability over time. Country of origin and religion of refugees and migrants are considered less important than decent housing conditions and whether refugee and migrants arrive as families or single persons. In this respect our results highlight the importance of humanitarian aspects of sheltering and integration of refugees and other migrants into society.
•Travel attitudes can change.•Attitude changes are ignored by conventional transport models.•Therefore ex ante evaluations of some policies can be flawed.•Innovative policies are likely ‘undervalued’
...The literature has increasingly recognized that people’s attitudes can change for many reasons. This paper argues that attitude changes can have important implications for modelling travel behaviour and ex ante evaluations of candidate policy options. Limiting ourselves to the transport system and the built environment, we discuss why attitudes could change, how these changes are not addressed in current aggregate travel behaviour models, mainly the four step model, and how they could influence the assessment of candidate policy options. We suggest related avenues for future research. The core point we want to make is that attitude changes are not included in aggregate models, which leads to an underestimation of the impacts (often: benefits) of unconventional transport policy options.
Much research has been devoted to assessing the effect of commute duration on the subjective well-being of people, but as of yet, the respective body or research has been inconclusive as to whether ...there is indeed a (large) negative effect or not. To control the spread of COVID-19 governments around the world have taken unprecedented measures to control the outbreak of the Corona-virus. Forcing or strongly advising people to work from home (i.e. at least those who can) is often one of these. The ensuing situation can be considered a natural experiment; the government’s intervention effectively cancels people’s commuting trip and can be considered completely exogenous. Should commuting time indeed have an adverse effect on well-being, it may be expected that those workers with long (pre-corona) commutes who have transitioned to working from home will experience an increase in their well-being. This idea is tested by combining several surveys -timed before and after the crisis- from the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social sciences (LISS) panel, a panel that is representative of the Dutch population. In line with expectations, the results indicate that workers with a long commuting duration who transitioned to working from home indeed increased their subjective well-being. However, this effect was found to be significant only for women and not for men. A more general finding of interest is that subjective well-being did not change much between the measurements before and during the corona-crisis.
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