Summary Background Preterm birth is the second largest direct cause of child deaths in children younger than 5 years. Yet, data regarding preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation) are not ...routinely collected by UN agencies, and no systematic country estimates nor time trend analyses have been done. We report worldwide, regional, and national estimates of preterm birth rates for 184 countries in 2010 with time trends for selected countries, and provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Methods We assessed various data sources according to prespecified inclusion criteria. National Registries (563 datapoints, 51 countries), Reproductive Health Surveys (13 datapoints, eight countries), and studies identified through systematic searches and unpublished data (162 datapoints, 40 countries) were included. 55 countries submitted additional data during WHO's country consultation process. For 13 countries with adequate quality and quantity of data, we estimated preterm birth rates using country-level loess regression for 2010. For 171 countries, two regional multilevel statistical models were developed to estimate preterm birth rates for 2010. We estimated time trends from 1990 to 2010 for 65 countries with reliable time trend data and more than 10 000 livebirths per year. We calculated uncertainty ranges for all countries. Findings In 2010, an estimated 14·9 million babies (uncertainty range 12·3–18·1 million) were born preterm, 11·1% of all livebirths worldwide, ranging from about 5% in several European countries to 18% in some African countries. More than 60% of preterm babies were born in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where 52% of the global livebirths occur. Preterm birth also affects rich countries, for example, USA has high rates and is one of the ten countries with the highest numbers of preterm births. Of the 65 countries with estimated time trends, only three (Croatia, Ecuador, and Estonia), had reduced preterm birth rates 1990–2010. Interpretation The burden of preterm birth is substantial and is increasing in those regions with reliable data. Improved recording of all pregnancy outcomes and standard application of preterm definitions is important. We recommend the addition of a data-quality indicator of the per cent of all live preterm births that are under 28 weeks' gestation. Distinguishing preterm births that are spontaneous from those that are provider-initiated is important to monitor trends associated with increased caesarean sections. Rapid scale up of basic interventions could accelerate progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival and beyond. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grants to Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme; March of Dimes; the Partnership for Maternal Newborn and Childe Health; and WHO, Department of Reproductive Health and Research.
Despite increasing attention and investment for maternal, neonatal, and child health, stillbirths remain invisible—not counted in the Millennium Development Goals, nor tracked by the UN, nor in the ...Global Burden of Disease metrics. At least 2·65 million stillbirths (uncertainty range 2·08 million to 3·79 million) were estimated worldwide in 2008 (≥1000 g birthweight or ≥28 weeks of gestation). 98% of stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries, and numbers vary from 2·0 per 1000 total births in Finland to more than 40 per 1000 total births in Nigeria and Pakistan. Worldwide, 67% of stillbirths occur in rural families, 55% in rural sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where skilled birth attendance and caesarean sections are much lower than that for urban births. In total, an estimated 1·19 million (range 0·82 million to 1·97 million) intrapartum stillbirths occur yearly. Most intrapartum stillbirths are associated with obstetric emergencies, whereas antepartum stillbirths are associated with maternal infections and fetal growth restriction. National estimates of causes of stillbirths are scarce, and multiple (>35) classification systems impede international comparison. Immediate data improvements are feasible through household surveys and facility audit, and improvements in vital registration, including specific perinatal certificates and revised International Classification of Disease codes, are needed. A simple, programme-relevant stillbirth classification that can be used with verbal autopsy would provide a basis for comparable national estimates. A new focus on all deaths around the time of birth is crucial to inform programmatic investment.
Summary The continuum of care has become a rallying call to reduce the yearly toll of half a million maternal deaths, 4 million neonatal deaths, and 6 million child deaths. The continuum for ...maternal, newborn, and child health usually refers to continuity of individual care. Continuity of care is necessary throughout the lifecycle (adolescence, pregnancy, childbirth, the postnatal period, and childhood) and also between places of caregiving (including households and communities, outpatient and outreach services, and clinical-care settings). We define a population-level or public-health framework based on integrated service delivery throughout the lifecycle, and propose eight packages to promote health for mothers, babies, and children. These packages can be used to deliver more than 190 separate interventions, which would be difficult to scale up one by one. The packages encompass three which are delivered through clinical care (reproductive health, obstetric care, and care of sick newborn babies and children); four through outpatient and outreach services (reproductive health, antenatal care, postnatal care and child health services); and one through integrated family and community care throughout the lifecycle. Mothers and babies are at high risk in the first days after birth, and the lack of a defined postnatal care package is an important gap, which also contributes to discontinuity between maternal and child health programmes. Similarly, because the family and community package tends not to be regarded as part of the health system, few countries have made systematic efforts to scale it up or integrate it with other levels of care. Building the continuum of care for maternal, newborn, and child health with these packages will need effectiveness trials in various settings; policy support for integration; investment to strengthen health systems; and results-based operational management, especially at district level.
Summary Background Every year, 1·1 million babies die from prematurity, and many survivors are disabled. Worldwide, 15 million babies are born preterm (<37 weeks' gestation), with two decades of ...increasing rates in almost all countries with reliable data. The understanding of drivers and potential benefit of preventive interventions for preterm births is poor. We examined trends and estimate the potential reduction in preterm births for countries with very high human development index (VHHDI) if present evidence-based interventions were widely implemented. This analysis is to inform a rate reduction target for Born Too Soon. Methods Countries were assessed for inclusion based on availability and quality of preterm prevalence data (2000–10), and trend analyses with projections undertaken. We analysed drivers of rate increases in the USA, 1989–2004. For 39 countries with VHHDI with more than 10 000 births, we did country-by-country analyses based on target population, incremental coverage increase, and intervention efficacy. We estimated cost savings on the basis of reported costs for preterm care in the USA adjusted using World Bank purchasing power parity. Findings From 2010, even if all countries with VHHDI achieved annual preterm birth rate reductions of the best performers for 1990–2010 (Estonia and Croatia), 2000–10 (Sweden and Netherlands), or 2005–10 (Lithuania, Estonia), rates would experience a relative reduction of less than 5% by 2015 on average across the 39 countries. Our analysis of preterm birth rise 1989–2004 in USA suggests half the change is unexplained, but important drivers include non-medically indicated labour induction and caesarean delivery and assisted reproductive technologies. For all 39 countries with VHHDI, five interventions modelling at high coverage predicted a 5% relative reduction of preterm birth rate from 9·59% to 9·07% of livebirths: smoking cessation (0·01 rate reduction), decreasing multiple embryo transfers during assisted reproductive technologies (0·06), cervical cerclage (0·15), progesterone supplementation (0·01), and reduction of non-medically indicated labour induction or caesarean delivery (0·29). These findings translate to roughly 58 000 preterm births averted and total annual economic cost savings of about US$3 billion. Interpretation We recommend a conservative target of a relative reduction in preterm birth rates of 5% by 2015. Our findings highlight the urgent need for research into underlying mechanisms of preterm births, and development of innovative interventions. Furthermore, the highest preterm birth rates occur in low-income settings where the causes of prematurity might differ and have simpler solutions such as birth spacing and treatment of infections in pregnancy than in high-income countries. Urgent focus on these settings is also crucial to reduce preterm births worldwide. Funding March of Dimes, USA, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and National Institutes of Health, USA.
Summary Universal coverage of essential interventions would reduce neonatal deaths by an estimated 71%, benefit women and children after the first month, and reduce stillbirths. However, the packages ...with the greatest effect (care around birth, care of small and ill newborn babies), have low and inequitable coverage and are the most sensitive markers of health system function. In eight of the 13 countries with the most neonatal deaths (55% worldwide), we undertook a systematic assessment of bottlenecks to essential maternal and newborn health care, involving more than 600 experts. Of 2465 bottlenecks identified, common constraints were found in all high-burden countries, notably regarding the health workforce, financing, and service delivery. However, bottlenecks for specific interventions might differ across similar health systems. For example, the implementation of kangaroo mother care was noted as challenging in the four Asian country workshops, but was regarded as a feasible aspect of preterm care by respondents in the four African countries. If all high-burden countries achieved the neonatal mortality rates of their region's fastest progressing countries, then the mortality goal of ten or fewer per 1000 livebirths by 2035 recommended in this Series and the Every Newborn Action Plan would be exceeded. We therefore examined fast progressing countries to identify strategies to reduce neonatal mortality. We identified several key factors: (1) workforce planning to increase numbers and upgrade specific skills for care at birth and of small and ill newborn babies, task sharing, incentives for rural health workers; (2) financial protection measures, such as expansion of health insurance, conditional cash transfers, and performance-based financing; and (3) dynamic leadership including innovation and community empowerment. Adapting from the 2005 Lancet Series on neonatal survival and drawing on this Every Newborn Series, we propose a country-led, data-driven process to sharpen national health plans, seize opportunities to address the quality gap for care at birth and care of small and ill newborn babies, and systematically scale up care to reach every mother and newborn baby, particularly the poorest.
Summary In this paper, we revisit the revolutionary principles—equity, social justice, and health for all; community participation; health promotion; appropriate use of resources; and intersectoral ...action—raised by the 1978 Alma-Ata Declaration, a historic event for health and primary health care. Old health challenges remain and new priorities have emerged (eg, HIV/AIDS, chronic diseases, and mental health), ensuring that the tenets of Alma-Ata remain relevant. We examine 30 years of changes in global policy to identify the lessons learned that are of relevance today, particularly for accelerated scale-up of primary health-care services necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, the modern iteration of the “health for all” goals. Health has moved from under-investment, to single disease focus, and now to increased funding and multiple new initiatives. For primary health care, the debate of the past two decades focused on selective (or vertical) versus comprehensive (horizontal) delivery, but is now shifting towards combining the strengths of both approaches in health systems. Debates of community versus facility-based health care are starting to shift towards building integrated health systems. Achievement of high and equitable coverage of integrated primary health-care services requires consistent political and financial commitment, incremental implementation based on local epidemiology, use of data to direct priorities and assess progress, especially at district level, and effective linkages with communities and non-health sectors. Community participation and intersectoral engagement seem to be the weakest strands in primary health care. Burgeoning task lists for primary health-care workers require long-term human resource planning and better training and supportive supervision. Essential drugs policies have made an important contribution to primary health care, but other appropriate technology lags behind. Revitalisng Alma-Ata and learning from three decades of experience is crucial to reach the ambitious goal of health for all in all countries, both rich and poor.
Summary We assessed progress for primary health care in countries since Alma-Ata. First we analysed life expectancy relative to national income and HIV prevalence to identify overachieving and ...underachieving countries. Then we focused on the 30 low-income and middle-income countries with the highest average yearly reduction of mortality among children less than 5 years of age, describing coverage and equity of primary health care as well as non-health sector actions. These 30 countries have scaled up selective primary health care (eg, immunisation, family planning), and 14 have progressed to comprehensive primary health care, marked by high coverage of skilled attendance at birth. Good governance and progress in non-health sectors are seen in almost all of the 14 countries identified with a comprehensive primary health care system. However, these 30 countries include those that are making progress despite very low income per person, political instability, and high HIV/AIDS prevalence. Thailand has the highest average yearly reduction in mortality among children less than 5 years of age (8·5%) and has achieved universal coverage of immunisation and skilled birth attendance, with low inequity. Lessons learned from all these countries include the need for a nationally agreed package of prioritised and phased primary health care that all stakeholders are committed to implementing, attention to district management systems, and consistent investment in primary health-care extension workers linked to the health system. More detailed analysis and evaluation within and across countries would be invaluable in guiding investments for primary health care, and expediting progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and “health for all”.
Summary Background Despite remarkable progress in the improvement of child survival between 1990 and 2015, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 target of a two-thirds reduction of under-5 ...mortality rate (U5MR) was not achieved globally. In this paper, we updated our annual estimates of child mortality by cause to 2000–15 to reflect on progress toward the MDG 4 and consider implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target for child survival. Methods We increased the estimation input data for causes of deaths by 43% among neonates and 23% among 1–59-month-olds, respectively. We used adequate vital registration (VR) data where available, and modelled cause-specific mortality fractions applying multinomial logistic regressions using adequate VR for low U5MR countries and verbal autopsy data for high U5MR countries. We updated the estimation to use Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate in place of malaria index in the modelling of malaria deaths; to use adjusted empirical estimates instead of modelled estimates for China; and to consider the effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and rotavirus vaccine in the estimation. Findings In 2015, among the 5·9 million under-5 deaths, 2·7 million occurred in the neonatal period. The leading under-5 causes were preterm birth complications (1·055 million 95% uncertainty range (UR) 0·935–1·179), pneumonia (0·921 million 0·812 −1·117), and intrapartum-related events (0·691 million 0·598 −0·778). In the two MDG regions with the most under-5 deaths, the leading cause was pneumonia in sub-Saharan Africa and preterm birth complications in southern Asia. Reductions in mortality rates for pneumonia, diarrhoea, neonatal intrapartum-related events, malaria, and measles were responsible for 61% of the total reduction of 35 per 1000 livebirths in U5MR in 2000–15. Stratified by U5MR, pneumonia was the leading cause in countries with very high U5MR. Preterm birth complications and pneumonia were both important in high, medium high, and medium child mortality countries; whereas congenital abnormalities was the most important cause in countries with low and very low U5MR. Interpretation In the SDG era, countries are advised to prioritise child survival policy and programmes based on their child cause-of-death composition. Continued and enhanced efforts to scale up proven life-saving interventions are needed to achieve the SDG child survival target. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.
Summary Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent ...Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures. GATHER comprises a checklist of 18 items that are essential for best reporting practice. A more detailed explanation and elaboration document, describing the interpretation and rationale of each reporting item along with examples of good reporting, is available on the GATHER website.
Summary Background Neonatal interventions are largely focused on reduction of mortality and progression towards Millennium Development Goal 4 (child survival). However, little is known about the ...global burden of long-term consequences of intrauterine and neonatal insults. We did a systematic review to estimate risks of long-term neurocognitive and other sequelae after intrauterine and neonatal insults, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. Methods We searched Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, the Cochrane Library, and Embase for studies published between Jan 1, 1966, and June 30, 2011, that reported neurodevelopmental sequelae after preterm or neonatal insult. For unpublished studies and grey literature, we searched Dissertation Abstracts International and the WHO library. We reviewed publications that had data for long-term outcome after defined neonatal insults. We summarised the results with medians and IQRs, and calculated the risk of at least one sequela after insult. Findings Of 28 212 studies identified by our search, 153 studies were suitable for inclusion, documenting 22 161 survivors of intrauterine or neonatal insults. The overall median risk of at least one sequela in any domain was 39·4% (IQR 20·0–54·8), with a risk of at least one severe impairment in any insult domain of 18·5% (7·7–33·3), of at least one moderate impairment of 5·0% (0·0–13·3%), and of at least one mild impairment of 10·0% (1·4–17·9%). The pooled risk estimate of at least one sequela (weighted mean) associated with one or more of the insults studied (excluding HIV) was 37·0% (95% CI 27·0–48·0%) and this risk was not significantly affected by region, duration of the follow-up, study design, or period of data collection. The most common sequelae were learning difficulties, cognition, or developmental delay (n=4032; 59%); cerebral palsy (n=1472; 21%); hearing impairment (n=1340; 20%); and visual impairment (n=1228; 18%). Only 40 (26%) studies included data for multidomain impairments. These studies included 2815 individuals, of whom 1048 (37%) had impairments, with 334 (32%) having multiple impairments. Interpretation Intrauterine and neonatal insults have a high risk of causing substantial long-term neurological morbidity. Comparable cohort studies in resource-poor regions should be done to properly assess the burden of these conditions, and long-term outcomes, such as chronic disease, and to inform policy and programme investments. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Saving Newborn Lives, and the Wellcome Trust.
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