An extensive urban agglomeration has occurred over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of East China as a result of rapid urbanization since the middle 1990s. In this study, a 44-yr (i.e., ...1975–2018) climatology of the summertime extreme hourly precipitation (EXHP; greater than the 90th percentile) over the YRD is analyzed, using historical land-use data, surface temperature, and hourly rain gauge observations, and then the relationship between rapid urbanization and EXHP changes is examined. Results show significant EXHP contrasts in diurnal variation and storm type roughly before and aftermiddle July. That is, tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 16.4% of the total EXHP hours, 80.5% of which occur during the late summer, whereas non-TC EXHP accounts for 94.7% and 66.2% during the early and late summer, respectively. Increasing trends in occurrence frequency and amount of the non-TC and TC-induced EXHP are detected over the urban agglomeration. Statistically significant larger increasing trends in both the EXHP and surface temperature are observed at urban stations than those at the nearby rural stations. An analysis of 113 locally developed non-TC extreme rainfall events during 2011–18 summers also suggests the contribution of the urban heat island effects to the more occurrences of EXHP, especially over a band-shaped urban region where several major cities are distributed. This study reveals a significant correlation between rapid urbanization and increased EXHP during the past two decades over the YRD region. The results have important implications for understanding the impact of urbanization on EXHP changes in a warming climate.
Abstract
In this study, a nocturnal extreme rainfall event induced by the urban heat island (UHI) effects of the coastal city of Guangzhou in South China on 7 May 2017 is examined using observational ...analyses and 18-h cloud-permitting simulations with the finest grid size of 1.33 km and the bottom boundary conditions nudged. Results show that the model reproduces convective initiation on Guangzhou’s downstream side (i.e., Huashan), where a shallow thermal mesolow is located, the subsequent back-building of convective cells as a larger-scale warm-moist southerly flow interacts with convectively generated cold outflows, and their eastward drifting and reorganization into a localized extreme-rain-producing storm near Jiulong under the influences of local orography. In particular, the model produces the maximum hourly, 3- and 12-hourly rainfall amounts of 146, 315, and 551 mm, respectively, at nearly the right location compared to their corresponding observed extreme amounts of 184, 382, and 542 mm. In addition, the model reproduces an intense meso-γ-scale vortex associated with the extreme-rain-producing Jiulong storm, as also captured by Doppler radar, with organized updrafts along cold outflow boundaries over a semicircle. A comparison of sensitivity and control simulations indicates that despite the occurrence of heavier rainfall amounts without the UHI effects than those without orography, the UHI effects appear to account directly for the convective initiation and heavy rainfall near Huashan, and indirectly for the subsequent formation of the Jiulong storm, while orography plays an important role in blocking cold outflows and enhancing cool pool strength for the sustained back-building of convective cells over the semicircle, thereby magnifying rainfall production near Jiulong.
Post-radiation nasopharyngeal necrosis (PRNN) is a severe adverse event following re-radiotherapy for patients with locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LRNPC) and associated with decreased ...survival. Biological heterogeneity in recurrent tumors contributes to the different risks of PRNN. Radiomics can be used to mine high-throughput non-invasive image features to predict clinical outcomes and capture underlying biological functions. We aimed to develop a radiogenomic signature for the pre-treatment prediction of PRNN to guide re-radiotherapy in patients with LRNPC.
This multicenter study included 761 re-irradiated patients with LRNPC at four centers in NPC endemic area and divided them into training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts. We built a machine learning (random forest) radiomic signature based on the pre-treatment multiparametric magnetic resonance images for predicting PRNN following re-radiotherapy. We comprehensively assessed the performance of the radiomic signature. Transcriptomic sequencing and gene set enrichment analyses were conducted to identify the associated biological processes.
The radiomic signature showed discrimination of 1-year PRNN in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts (area under the curve (AUC) 0.713-0.756). Stratified by a cutoff score of 0.735, patients with high-risk signature had higher incidences of PRNN than patients with low-risk signature (1-year PRNN rates 42.2-62.5% vs. 16.3-18.8%, P < 0.001). The signature significantly outperformed the clinical model (P < 0.05) and was generalizable across different centers, imaging parameters, and patient subgroups. The radiomic signature had prognostic value concerning its correlation with PRNN-related deaths (hazard ratio (HR) 3.07-6.75, P < 0.001) and all causes of deaths (HR 1.53-2.30, P < 0.01). Radiogenomics analyses revealed associations between the radiomic signature and signaling pathways involved in tissue fibrosis and vascularity.
We present a radiomic signature for the individualized risk assessment of PRNN following re-radiotherapy, which may serve as a noninvasive radio-biomarker of radiation injury-associated processes and a useful clinical tool to personalize treatment recommendations for patients with LANPC.
The initiation and organization of a quasi-linear extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) along a mei-yu front in east China during the midnight-to-morning hours of 8 July 2007 are ...studied using high-resolution surface observations and radar reflectivity, and a 24-h convection-permitting simulation with the nested grid spacing of 1.11 km. Both the observations and the simulation reveal that the quasi-linear MCS forms through continuous convective initiation and organization into westeast-oriented rainbands with life spans of about 410 h, and their subsequent southeastward propagation. Results show that the early convective initiation at the western end of the MCS results from moist southwesterly monsoonal flows ascending cold domes left behind by convective activity that develops during the previous afternoon-to-evening hours, suggesting a possible linkage between the early morning and late afternoon peaks of the mei-yu rainfall. Two scales of convective organization are found during the MCS's development: one is the east- to northeastward echo training of convective cells along individual rainbands, and the other is the southeastward band training of the rainbands along the quasi-linear MCS. The two organizational modes are similar within the context of training of convective elements, but they differ in their spatial scales and movement directions. It is concluded that the repeated convective backbuilding and the subsequent echo training along the same path account for the extreme rainfall production in the present case, whereas the band training is responsible for the longevity of the rainbands and the formation of the quasi-linear MCS.
Abstract
An afternoon heavy rainfall event occurred over coastal Nantong, an area of 70–100 km downstream from the Shanghai–Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou city belt over the Yangtze River Delta, under the ...influences of weak southwesterly monsoonal flows and lake/sea breezes on 26 July 2018. An observational analysis shows the emergence of pronounced urban heat island (UHI) effects along the city belt during the late morning hours. A series of nested-grid cloud-permitting model simulations with the finest grid spacing of 1 km are performed to examine the impacts of urbanization on convection initiation (CI) and the subsequent heavy rainfall event. Results reveal the generation of lake breezes and warm anomalies in the planetary boundary layer along the city belt and low-level convergence, thereby inducing upward motion for CI. The southwesterly flows of the monsoonal warm–moist air, enhanced by the UHI effects along the city belt, allow the development of convective cells along the city belt, some of which merge with convective clusters during their downstream propagation, and the ultimate generation of several distinct heavy rainfall centers by local convective clusters over coastal Nantong where atmospheric columns are more moist and potentially unstable under the influences of sea breezes. Sensitivity simulations show small contribution of Nantong’s UHI effects to the heavy rainfall event. The above findings help elucidate how the UHI effects could assist the CI in a weak-gradient environment, and explain why urbanization can contribute to increased downwind mean and extreme precipitation under the influences of favorable regional forcing conditions.
Significance Statement
The urban heat island (UHI) effects tend to produce more rainfall on its downwind side than that on the other sides, but alone could hardly account for the generation of heavy rainfall. This study examines the influences of the UHI effects associated with a city belt over the Yangtze River Delta on generating an afternoon heavy rainfall event over coastal Nantong that is 70–100 km downwind from the city belt. Results show (i) the downwind advection of the UHI effects; (ii) the initiation of convective storms along the city belt, and their subsequent downstream propagation, leading to the generation of heavy rainfall over Nantong; and (iii) an important role of sea breezes in generating the heavy rainfall event.
Abstract
In this study, high-resolution surface and radar observations are used to analyze 24 localized extreme hourly rainfall (EXHR; >60 mm h
−1
) events with strong urban heat island (UHI) effects ...over the Great Bay Area (GBA) in South China during the 2011–16 warm seasons. Quasi-idealized, convection-permitting ensemble simulations driven by diurnally varying lateral boundary conditions, which are extracted from the composite global analysis of 3–5 June 2013, are then conducted with a multilayer urban canopy model to unravel the influences of the UHI and various surface properties nearby on the EXHR generation in a complex geographical environment with sea–land contrast, topography, and vegetation variation. Results show that EXHR is mostly distributed over the urban agglomeration and within about 40 km on its downwind side, and produced during the afternoon-to-evening hours by short-lived meso-
γ
- to meso-
β
-scale storms. On the EXHR days, the GBA is featured by a weak gradient environment with abundant moisture, and a weak southwesterly flow prevailing in the boundary layer (BL). The UHI effects lead to the development of a deep mixed layer with “warm bubbles” over the urban agglomeration, in which the lower-BL convergence and BL-top divergence is developed, assisting in convective initiation. Such urban BL processes and associated convective development with moisture supply by the synoptic low-level southwesterly flow are enhanced by orographically increased horizontal winds and sea breezes under the influence of the herringbone coastline, thereby increasing the inhomogeneity and intensity of rainfall production over the “Π-shaped” urban clusters. Vegetation variations are not found to be an important factor in determining the EXHR production over the region.
Monsoon coastal cities often suffer from extreme rain-induced flooding and severe hazard. However, the associated physical mechanisms and detailed storm structures are poorly understood due to the ...lack of high-resolution data. This study presents an analysis of a thunderstorm that produces extreme hourly rainfall (EXHR) of 219 mm over the Guangzhou megacity on the southern coast of China using integrated multiplatform observations and a four-dimensional variational Doppler radar analysis system. Results indicate that weak environmental flows and convectively generated weak cold pool facilitate the formation of a quasi-stationary storm, while onshore warm and moist flows in the boundary layer (BL) provide the needed moisture supply. The 219-mm EXHR is attendant by a shallow meso-<inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">\gamma </tex-math></inline-formula>-scale vortex due to stretching of intense latent heating-induced convergence, which, in turn, helps organize convective updrafts into its core region. Lightning and dual-polarization radar observations reveal active warm-rain (but weak mixed-phase) microphysical processes, with raindrop size distribution (RSD) closer to marine convection. In contrast, another storm develops about 4 h earlier and only 35 km to the northwest, but with more lightning, higher cloud tops, more graupel and supercooled liquid water content, more continental RSD, little evidence of rotation, and much less rainfall; they are attributable to the presence of larger convective available potential energy resulting from the urban heat island effects and less moisture supply in the BL. These results highlight the importance of using multisource remote sensing data sets in understanding the microphysical and kinematic structures of EXHR-producing storms.
In this study, an extreme rainfall event of 451 mm in 20 hr that occurred in coastal South China on 11 May 2014 during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment is investigated using integrated ...observations from the dual‐Doppler radar pair, polarimetric radar, extensive mesonetwork, and enhanced upper‐air soundings. Results show the generation of the extreme rainfall by two consecutive mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) consisting of multiple meso‐β‐scale rainbands. The two MCSs are maintained by lifting southerly oceanic flows over a quasi‐stationary mesoscale outflow boundary (MOB) along the coastline that are enhanced by convectively generated weak cold pool. Northeastward “echo training” of convective cells, under the influence of environmental southwesterly flows, leads to the formation of the multiple rainbands in each MCS. Their subsequent propagations in a “rainband training” form, together with the echo training, along the coastline account for the production of extreme rainfall. The second MCS is characterized with a leading bowing rainband showing a process of rapid splitting and reestablishment (RSRE), which contributes to the formation of the rainband training. The occurrence of the RSRE process requires ample supply of unstable upstream oceanic air mass, the quasi‐stationary MOB, and a bowing rainband intersecting with the MOB. The second MCS produces more precipitation than the first one as a result of more rainbands, stronger convective intensity, and more moderate‐sized raindrops with larger maximal sizes. The above findings, especially the RSRE process and its associated storm internal circulation, appear to add new Insights into the formation and maintenance of training rainbands and their roles in heavy rainfall production.
Key Points
Two successive storms consisting of multiple meso‐β‐scale rainbands produce 451 mm rainfall in 20 hr over coastal South China
A surface mesoscale outflow boundary (MOB) exerts profound influences on convective initiation and the subsequent echo and rainband trainings in the storm
Interactions among the rear inflow, unstable oceanic flow, and MOB result in rapid splitting and rebuilding of a bowing rainband, favoring the rainband training
A sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020, showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum ...values, except on the first day. Results show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet (LLJ) in and to the southeast of the basin, which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the basin. The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal forcing. The nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was present. The convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the south. It was the slantwise lifting of the warm, moist airflow above the cold air, often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent, that released the convective instability and produced heavy rainfall.
Objectives: Epithelial‐mesenchymal transition (EMT) is an important process in tumor development, and several studies suggest that the Wnt/β‐catenin signal pathway may play an important role in EMT. ...However, there is no direct evidence showing that the Wnt/β‐catenin pathway actually determines the EMT induced by an exogenous signal. Our previous research has successfully proved that overexpression of hypoxia‐inducible factor‐1α (HIF‐1α) could induce EMT in LNCaP cells, but not in PC‐3. The present study aims to determine whether the signal of HIF‐1α for inducing prostate cancer cells to undergo EMT might possibly pass through the Wnt/β‐catenin pathway.
Methods: Epithelial‐mesenchymal transition associated proteins were detected in several human prostate carcinoma cell lines by Western blot, and then we distinguished the EMT positive cell lines from the EMT negative cell lines. Furthermore, we evaluated the possible correlation between potency of invasiveness and proliferation among these cell lines with different characteristics of EMT using Matrigel transwell and thiazolyl blue tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assays. Finally, the different expression of some critical proteins and genes in Wnt/β‐catenin signaling pathway were analyzed by Western blot and reverse transcription‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) in these cells with different characteristics of EMT.
Results: Among several prostate cancer cell lines, PC‐3, LNCaP and PC‐3/HIF‐1α are EMT negative cell lines, whereas LNCaP/HIF‐1α and IA8 have undergone the EMT process. EMT positive cells (LNCaP/HIF‐1α and IA8) exhibit much stronger potency of invasiveness and proliferation than those of PC‐3 and LNCaP, which belong to EMT negative cells. Interestingly, although PC‐3/HIF‐1α had not completed the EMT process, it still displayed stronger potency of invasion and proliferation, resembling EMT positive cells. The protein expression level of total glycogensynthase kinase 3β (GSK‐3β) and phospho‐GSK‐3β in LNCaP/HIF‐1α, IA8 and PC‐3/HIF‐1α cells significantly decreased; however, the relative ratios of p‐GSK3β/t‐GSK3β in LNCaP/HIF‐1α, IA8 and PC‐3/HIF‐1α cells were significantly higher than PC‐3 and LNCaP. Consistently, β‐catenin protein expression increased in LNCaP/HIF‐1α and IA8 cells, but not in PC‐3/HIF‐1α; RT‐PCR confirmed these results, except for the enhanced transcription activity of β‐catenin mRNA in PC‐3/HIF‐1α.
Conclusion: Our data suggests that activation of the Wnt/β‐catenin signaling pathway correlates with the characteristic of EMT and potency of invasiveness and proliferation. This may be the critical factor that directly controls the process of EMT induced by HIF‐1α in prostate cancer cells.
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