The incidence of vaccine preventable disease in Pakistan remains high despite a long-standing Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). We describe vaccine completeness, timeliness and determinants of ...coverage from a remote rural cohort (2012-2014). Vaccination histories were taken from EPI records. Vaccination was complete if all doses were received according to the EPI schedule and timely if doses were not ≥3 days early or ≥ 28 days late. Three models are presented: a multivariable logistic regression of household demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with complete vaccination, a multivariable mixed effects logistic regression assessing whether or not the vaccine was administered late (versus on-time), and a mixed effects multivariable Poisson regression model analysing the interval (in days) between vaccine doses. Of 959 enrolled children with full vaccination histories, 88.2 and 65.1% were fully vaccinated following either the pentavalent or DPT/HBV schedules if measles was excluded; coverage dropped to 50.0 and 27.1% when both doses of measles were included. Sixty-four (6.7%) were unvaccinated. Coverage and timeliness declined with subsequent doses. Migrating into the village after 1995 (95%CI 1.88 to 5.17) was associated with late vaccination. Being male, having an older father, and having parents with at least some formal education reduced the likelihood of a late dose. The interval between doses was consistent at 5 weeks (compared with the 4 weeks recommended by EPI). None of the socio-demographic variables were related to the likelihood of receiving full coverage. Vaccine coverage in Oshikhandass was higher than national averages. Measles vaccine coverage and timeliness were low; special consideration should be paid to this vaccine. The local vaccination schedule differed from the EPI, but the consistency suggests good local administration.
An epidemiologic systems analysis of diarrhea in children in Pakistan is presented. Application of additive Bayesian network modeling to 2005-2006 data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards ...Measurement Survey reveals the complexity of child diarrhea as a disease system. The key distinction between standard analytical approaches, such as multivariable regression, and Bayesian network analyses is that the latter attempt to not only identify statistically associated variables but also, additionally and empirically, separate these into those directly and indirectly dependent upon the outcome variable. Such discrimination is vastly more ambitious but has the potential to reveal far more about key features of complex disease systems. Additive Bayesian network analyses across 41 variables from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey identified 182 direct dependencies but with only 3 variables: 1) access to a dry pit latrine (protective; odds ratio = 0.67); 2) access to an atypical water source (protective; odds ratio = 0.49); and 3) no formal garbage collection (unprotective; odds ratio = 1.32), supported as directly dependent with the presence of diarrhea. All but 2 of the remaining variables were also, in turn, directly or indirectly dependent upon these 3 key variables. These results are contrasted with the use of a standard approach (multivariable regression).
Findings of the association between iron status and depressive symptoms in nonpregnant women of reproductive age (WRA) are equivocal, limited by a small sample size, or did not consistently control ...for confounders.
We tested the association between iron status and depressive symptoms in WRA with the NHANES data (2005-2010).
Nonpregnant WRA (20-44 y) with complete data on iron (ferritin and transferrin receptor (TfR)) and anemia (hemoglobin) biomarkers, depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-9), and sociodemographic variables were included. Logistic and negative binomial regressions were used to estimate presence (odds ratios) and magnitude (prevalence ratios), respectively, for depressive symptoms by iron deficiency (ID)/anemia/ID anemia in the total sample and stratified by poverty:income ratio (≤ 1.85 or >1.85).
Among 2516 females, the prevalence of ID was 8 to 16% (depending on the iron biomarker used), of anemia 8%, of which 52 to 65% were also ID. The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 10%. Crude logistic models showed that females with ID (TfR ≥ 8.3 mg/L or body iron <0 mg/kg) from the total sample had 1.82 (95% confidence interval CI: 1.24, 2.68) and 1.62 (95% CI: 1.05, 2.48), respectively, higher odds of depressive symptoms than females with iron sufficiency; these associations were attenuated after adjustments for confounders. Adjusted negative binomial models showed that females with ID (TfR ≥ 8.3 mg/L) from the total and low-income samples showed 1.19 (95% CI: 1:00, 1.40) and 1.27 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.58), respectively, higher prevalence ratios of depressive symptoms scores than females with iron sufficiency.
These nationally representative data indicate that nonpregnant WRA with ID (based on high TfR) in the United States have higher prevalence of somatic depressive symptoms scores than those with iron sufficiency, especially if they are of low income.
Diet norms are the shared social behaviours and beliefs about diets. In many societies, including the UK, these norms are typically linked to unhealthy diets and impede efforts to improve food ...choices. Social interactions that could influence one another's food choices, were highly disrupted during the lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. A return to workplaces and re-establishment of eating networks may present an opportunity to influence dietary norms by introducing minimum dietary standards to in workplaces, which could then spread through wider home and workplace networks.
An agent-based model was constructed to simulate a society reflecting the structure of a city population (1000 households) to explore changes in personal and social diet-related norms. The model tracked individual meal choices as agents interact in home, work or school settings and recorded changes in diet quality (range 1 to 100). Scenarios were run to compare individuals' diet quality with the introduction of minimum dietary standards with degrees of working from home.
The more people mixed at work the greater the impact of minimum standards on improving diet norms. Socially isolated households remained unaffected by minimum standards, whereas household members exposed directly, in workplaces or schools, or indirectly, influenced by others in the household, had a large and linear increase in diet quality in relation to minimum standards (0.48 95% CI 0.34, 0.62 per unit increase in minimum standards). Since individuals regressed to the new population mean, a small proportion of diets decreased toward lower population norms. The degree of return to work influenced the rate and magnitude of change cross the population (-2.4 points -2.40, -2.34 in mean diet quality per 20% of workers isolating).
These model results illustrate the qualitative impact social connectivity could have on changing diets through interventions. Norms can be changed more in a more connected population, and social interactions spread norms between contexts and amplified the influence of, for example, workplace minimum standards beyond those directly exposed. However, implementation of minimum standards in a single type of setting would not reach the whole population and in some cases may decrease diet quality. Any non-zero standard could yield improvements beyond the immediate adult workforce and this could spill between social contexts, but would be contingent on population connectivity.
Adolescence is a critical point in the realization of human capital, as health and educational decisions with long-term impacts are made. We examined the role of early childhood experiences on ...health, cognitive abilities, and educational outcomes of adolescents followed up from a longitudinal cohort study in Pakistan, hypothesizing that early childhood experiences reflecting poverty would manifest in reduced health and development in adolescence.
Adolescents/young adults previously followed as children aged under 5 years were interviewed. Childhood data were available on diarrhea, pneumonia, and parental/household characteristics. New data were collected on health, anthropometry, education, employment, and languages spoken; nonverbal reasoning was assessed. A multivariable Bayesian network was constructed to explore structural relationships between variables. Of 1,868 children originally enrolled, 1,463 (78.3%) were interviewed as adolescents (range 16.0-29.3 years, mean age 22.6 years); 945 (65%) lived in Oshikhandass. While 1,031 (70.5%) of their mothers and 440 (30.1%) of their fathers had received no formal education, adolescents reported a mean of 11.1 years of education. Childhood diarrhea (calculated as episodes/child-year) had no association with nonverbal reasoning score (an arc was supported in just 4.6% of bootstrap samples), health measures (with BMI, 1% of bootstrap samples; systolic and diastolic blood pressure, 0.1% and 1.6% of bootstrap samples, respectively), education (0.7% of bootstrap samples), or employment (0% of bootstrap samples). Relationships were found between nonverbal reasoning and adolescent height (arc supported in 63% of bootstrap samples), age (84%), educational attainment (100%), and speaking English (100%); speaking English was linked to the childhood home environment, mediated through maternal education and primary language. Speaking English (n = 390, 26.7% of adolescents) was associated with education (100% of bootstrap samples), self-reported child health (82%), current location (85%) and variables describing childhood socioeconomic status. The main limitations of this study were the lack of parental data to characterize the home setting (including parental mental and physical health, and female empowerment) and reliance on self-reporting of health status.
In this population, investments in education, especially for females, are associated with an increase in human capital. Against the backdrop of substantial societal change, with the exception of a small and indirect association between childhood malnutrition and cognitive scores, educational opportunities and cultural language groups have stronger associations with aspects of human capital than childhood morbidity.
Hydrodynamics on coral reefs vary with depth, reef morphology and seascape position. Differences in hydrodynamic regimes strongly influence the structure and function of coral reef ecosystems. ...Submerged coral reefs on steep-sided, conical bathymetric features like seamounts experience enhanced water circulation as a result of interactions between currents and the abrupt physical structure. There may also be similar interactions between smaller pinnacles and regional water currents in offshore locations (crests > 10 m), while shallow reefs (crests <10 m) may be more subject to surface currents driven by wind, waves and tide. Here we tested whether coral pinnacles experienced stronger and more variable currents compared to emergent reefs at the same depth in both nearshore and offshore positions. Current speeds and temperature were monitored for 12 months at 11 reefs, representing the three different reef categories: submerged offshore pinnacles, emergent offshore reefs and emergent nearshore reefs. We found different patterns in current speeds and temperature among reef types throughout the year and between seasons. Submerged pinnacles exhibited stronger, more variable current speeds compared to both near and offshore emergent reefs. We found seasonal changes in current speeds for pinnacle and nearshore reefs but no variation in current strength on offshore reefs. Whilst instantaneous current directions did reflect the seascape position of individual sites, there was no difference in the directional variability of current speeds between reef types. Annual daily average temperatures at all reef types were not strongly seasonal, changing by less than 2 °C throughout the year. Daily temperature ranges at specific sites however, exhibited considerable variability (annual range of up to 6.5 °C), particularly amongst offshore emergent reefs which experienced the highest temperatures despite greater exposure to regional-scale circulation patterns. Additionally, we found a consistent mismatch between satellite sea surface temperatures and in-situ temperature data, which was on average 2 °C cooler throughout the annual study period. Our results suggest that distinct hydrodynamic processes occur on smaller submerged structures that are physically analogous to seamounts. Our findings highlight important nuances in environmental processes that occur on morphologically distinct coral reef habitats and these are likely to be important drivers for the community dynamics of organisms that inhabit these reefs.
Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) have been associated with mildly inflammatory diarrhea in outbreaks and in travelers and have been increasingly recognized as enteric pathogens in young children with ...and without overt diarrhea. We examined the risk factors for EAEC infections and their associations with environmental enteropathy biomarkers and growth outcomes over the first two years of life in eight low-resource settings of the MAL-ED study.
EAEC infections were detected by PCR gene probes for aatA and aaiC virulence traits in 27,094 non-diarrheal surveillance stools and 7,692 diarrheal stools from 2,092 children in the MAL-ED birth cohort. We identified risk factors for EAEC and estimated the associations of EAEC with diarrhea, enteropathy biomarker concentrations, and both short-term (one to three months) and long-term (to two years of age) growth.
Overall, 9,581 samples (27.5%) were positive for EAEC, and almost all children had at least one detection (94.8%) by two years of age. Exclusive breastfeeding, higher enrollment weight, and macrolide use within the preceding 15 days were protective. Although not associated with diarrhea, EAEC infections were weakly associated with biomarkers of intestinal inflammation and more strongly with reduced length at two years of age (LAZ difference associated with high frequency of EAEC detections: -0.30, 95% CI: -0.44, -0.16).
Asymptomatic EAEC infections were common early in life and were associated with linear growth shortfalls. Associations with intestinal inflammation were small in magnitude, but suggest a pathway for the growth impact. Increasing the duration of exclusive breastfeeding may help prevent these potentially inflammatory infections and reduce the long-term impact of early exposure to EAEC.
Environmental enteric dysfunction increases the likelihood of micronutrient deficiencies among infants, but few studies have assessed the potential impact of gut health on urinary iodine ...concentration (UIC) among this vulnerable group.
We describe the trends of iodine status among infants from 6 to 24 mo old and examine the associations between intestinal permeability, inflammation, and UIC from 6 to 15 mo of age.
Data from 1557 children enrolled in this birth cohort study conducted in 8 sites were included in these analyses. UIC was measured at 6, 15, and 24 mo of age by using the Sandell-Kolthoff technique. Gut inflammation and permeability were assessed using the concentrations of fecal neopterin (NEO), myeloperoxidase (MPO) and alpha-1–antitrypsin (AAT), and lactulose–mannitol ratio (LM). A multinomial regression analysis was used to assess the classified UIC (deficiency or excess). Linear mixed regression was used to test the effect of interactions among biomarkers on logUIC.
All studied populations had adequate (≥100 μg/L) to excess (≥371 μg/L) median UIC at 6 mo. Between 6 and 24 mo, 5 sites displayed a significant decline in the infant’s median UIC. However, median UIC remained within the optimal range. An increase of NEO and MPO concentrations by +1 unit in ln scale reduced the risk of low UIC by 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78–0.97) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.77–0.95), respectively. AAT moderated the association between NEO and UIC (P < 0.0001). The shape of this association appears to be asymmetric and in a reverse J-shape, with a higher UIC observed at both lower NEO and AAT concentrations.
Excess UIC was frequent at 6 mo and tended to normalize at 24 mo. Aspects of gut inflammation and increased permeability appear to reduce the prevalence of low UIC in children aged 6 to 15 mo. Programs addressing iodine-related health should consider the role of gut permeability in vulnerable individuals.
There is an increasing need for processing and understanding relevant information generated by the systematic collection of public health data over time. However, the analysis of those time series ...usually requires advanced modeling techniques, which are not necessarily mastered by staff, technicians and researchers working on public health and epidemiology. Here a user-friendly tool, EPIPOI, is presented that facilitates the exploration and extraction of parameters describing trends, seasonality and anomalies that characterize epidemiological processes. It also enables the inspection of those parameters across geographic regions. Although the visual exploration and extraction of relevant parameters from time series data is crucial in epidemiological research, until now it had been largely restricted to specialists.
EPIPOI is freely available software developed in Matlab (The Mathworks Inc) that runs both on PC and Mac computers. Its friendly interface guides users intuitively through useful comparative analyses including the comparison of spatial patterns in temporal parameters.
EPIPOI is able to handle complex analyses in an accessible way. A prototype has already been used to assist researchers in a variety of contexts from didactic use in public health workshops to the main analytical tool in published research.
EPIPOI can assist public health officials and students to explore time series data using a broad range of sophisticated analytical and visualization tools. It also provides an analytical environment where even advanced users can benefit by enabling a higher degree of control over model assumptions, such as those associated with detecting disease outbreaks and pandemics.
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