The COVID-19 pandemic has undergone frequent and rapid changes in its local and global infection rates, driven by governmental measures or the emergence of new viral variants. The reproduction number
...indicates the average number of cases generated by an infected person at time
and is a key indicator of the spread of an epidemic. A timely estimation of
is a crucial tool to enable governmental organizations to adapt quickly to these changes and assess the consequences of their policies. The EpiEstim method is the most widely accepted method for estimating
But it estimates
with a significant temporal delay. Here, we propose a method, EpiInvert, that shows good agreement with EpiEstim, but that provides estimates of
several days in advance. We show that
can be estimated by inverting the renewal equation linking
with the observed incidence curve of new cases,
Our signal-processing approach to this problem yields both
and a restored
corrected for the "weekend effect" by applying a deconvolution and denoising procedure. The implementations of the EpiInvert and EpiEstim methods are fully open source and can be run in real time on every country in the world and every US state.
The COVID-19 pandemy has created a radically new situation where most countries provide raw measurements of their daily incidence and disclose them in real time. This enables new machine learning ...forecast strategies where the prediction might no longer be based just on the past values of the current incidence curve, but could take advantage of observations in many countries. We present such a simple global machine learning procedure using all past daily incidence trend curves. Each of the 27,418 COVID-19 incidence trend curves in our database contains the values of 56 consecutive days extracted from observed incidence curves across 61 world regions and countries. Given a current incidence trend curve observed over the past four weeks, its forecast in the next four weeks is computed by matching it with the first four weeks of all samples, and ranking them by their similarity to the query curve. Then the 28 days forecast is obtained by a statistical estimation combining the values of the 28 last observed days in those similar samples. Using comparison performed by the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub with the current state of the art forecast methods, we verify that the proposed global learning method, EpiLearn, compares favorably to methods forecasting from a single past curve.
The most common reported epidemic time series in epidemiological surveillance are the daily or weekly incidence of new cases, the hospital admission count, the ICU admission count, and the death ...toll, which played such a prominent role in the struggle to monitor the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that pairs of such curves are related to each other by a generalized renewal equation depending on a smooth time varying delay and a smooth ratio generalizing the reproduction number. Such a functional relation is also explored for pairs of simultaneous curves measuring the same indicator in two neighboring countries. Given two such simultaneous time series, we develop, based on a signal processing approach, an efficient numerical method for computing their time varying delay and ratio curves, and we verify that its results are consistent. Indeed, they experimentally verify symmetry and transitivity requirements and we also show, using realistic simulated data, that the method faithfully recovers time delays and ratios. We discuss several real examples where the method seems to display interpretable time delays and ratios. The proposed method generalizes and unifies many recent related attempts to take advantage of the plurality of these health data across regions or countries and time, providing a better understanding of the relationship between them. An implementation of the method is publicly available at the EpiInvert CRAN package.
Organic elements make up 99% of an organism but without the remaining inorganic bioessential elements, termed the metallome, no life could be possible. The metallome is involved in all aspects of ...life, including charge balance and electrolytic activity, structure and conformation, signaling, acid-base buffering, electron and chemical group transfer, redox catalysis energy storage and biomineralization. Here, we report the evolution with age of the metallome and copper and zinc isotope compositions in five mouse organs. The aging metallome shows a conserved and reproducible fingerprint. By analyzing the metallome in tandem with the phenome, metabolome and proteome, we show networks of interactions that are organ-specific, age-dependent, isotopically-typified and that are associated with a wealth of clinical and molecular traits. We report that the copper isotope composition in liver is age-dependent, extending the existence of aging isotopic clocks beyond bulk organic elements. Furthermore, iron concentration and copper isotope composition relate to predictors of metabolic health, such as body fat percentage and maximum running capacity at the physiological level, and adipogenesis and OXPHOS at the biochemical level. Our results shed light on the metallome as an overlooked omic layer and open perspectives for potentially modulating cellular processes using careful and selective metallome manipulation.
Objective
Improving mitochondrial function is a promising strategy for intervention in type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study investigated the preventive effects of sodium ferrous citrate (SFC) and ...5‐aminolevulinic acid phosphate (ALA) on several metabolic dysfunctions associated with obesity because they have been shown to alleviate abnormal glucose metabolism in humans.
Methods
Six‐week‐old male C57BL/6J mice were fed with a normal diet, a high‐fat diet, or a high‐fat diet supplemented with SFC and ALA for 15 weeks.
Results
The simultaneous supplementation of SFC + ALA to high‐fat diet‐fed mice prevented loss of muscle mass, improved muscle strength, and reduced obesity and insulin resistance. SFC + ALA prevented abnormalities in mitochondrial morphology and reverted the diet effect on the skeletal muscle transcriptome, including the expression of glucose uptake and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation‐related genes. In addition, SFC + ALA prevented the decline in mitochondrial DNA copy number by enhancing mitochondrial DNA maintenance and antioxidant transcription activity, both of which are impaired in high‐fat diet‐fed mice during long‐term fasting.
Conclusions
These findings suggest that SFC + ALA supplementation exerts its preventive effects in type 2 diabetes mellitus via improved skeletal muscle and mitochondrial health, further validating its application as a promising strategy for the prevention of obesity‐induced metabolic disorders.
The sanitary crisis of the past two years has focused the public's attention on quantitative indicators of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The daily reproduction number Rt, defined by the ...average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual at time
, is one of the best metrics for estimating the epidemic trend. In this paper, we provide a complete observation model for sampled epidemiological incidence signals obtained through periodic administrative measurements. The model is governed by the classic renewal equation using an empirical reproduction kernel, and subject to two perturbations: a time-varying gain with a weekly period and a white observation noise. We estimate this noise model and its parameters by extending a variational inversion of the model recovering its main driving variable Rt. Using Rt, a restored incidence curve, corrected of the weekly and festive day bias, can be deduced through the renewal equation. We verify experimentally on many countries that, once the weekly and festive days bias have been corrected, the difference between the incidence curve and its expected value is well approximated by an exponential distributed white noise multiplied by a power of the magnitude of the restored incidence curve.
Although antigen cross-presentation in dendritic cells (DCs) is critical to the initiation of most cytotoxic immune responses, the intracellular mechanisms and traffic pathways involved are still ...unclear. One of the most critical steps in this process, the export of internalized antigen to the cytosol, has been suggested to be mediated by Sec61. Sec61 is the channel that translocates signal peptide-bearing nascent polypeptides into the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), and it was also proposed to mediate protein retrotranslocation during ER-associated degradation (a process called ERAD). Here, we used a newly identified Sec61 blocker, mycolactone, to analyze Sec61's contribution to antigen cross-presentation, ERAD, and transport of internalized antigens into the cytosol. As shown previously in other cell types, mycolactone prevented protein import into the ER of DCs. Mycolactone-mediated Sec61 blockade also potently suppressed both antigen cross-presentation and direct presentation of synthetic peptides to CD8
T cells. In contrast, it did not affect protein export from the ER lumen or from endosomes into the cytosol, suggesting that the inhibition of cross-presentation was not related to either of these trafficking pathways. Proteomic profiling of mycolactone-exposed DCs showed that expression of mediators of antigen presentation, including MHC class I and β2 microglobulin, were highly susceptible to mycolactone treatment, indicating that Sec61 blockade affects antigen cross-presentation indirectly. Together, our data suggest that the defective translocation and subsequent degradation of Sec61 substrates is the cause of altered antigen cross-presentation in Sec61-blocked DCs.
Mycolactone, an immunosuppressive macrolide released by the human pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans, was previously shown to impair Sec61-dependent protein translocation, but the underlying molecular ...mechanism was not identified. In this study, we show that mycolactone directly targets the α subunit of the Sec61 translocon to block the production of secreted and integral membrane proteins with high potency. We identify a single-amino acid mutation conferring resistance to mycolactone, which localizes its interaction site near the lumenal plug of Sec61α. Quantitative proteomics reveals that during T cell activation, mycolactone-mediated Sec61 blockade affects a selective subset of secretory proteins including key signal-transmitting receptors and adhesion molecules. Expression of mutant Sec61α in mycolactone-treated T cells rescued their homing potential and effector functions. Furthermore, when expressed in macrophages, the mycolactone-resistant mutant restored IFN-γ receptor-mediated antimicrobial responses. Thus, our data provide definitive genetic evidence that Sec61 is the host receptor mediating the diverse immunomodulatory effects of mycolactone and identify Sec61 as a novel regulator of immune cell functions.
Inflammatory gut disorders, including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), can be impacted by dietary, environmental, and genetic factors. While the incidence of IBD is increasing worldwide, we still ...lack a complete understanding of the gene-by-environment interactions underlying inflammation and IBD. Here, we profiled the colon transcriptome of 52 BXD mouse strains fed with a chow or high-fat diet (HFD) and identified a subset of BXD strains that exhibit an IBD-like transcriptome signature on HFD, indicating that an interplay of genetics and diet can significantly affect intestinal inflammation. Using gene co-expression analyses, we identified modules that are enriched for IBD-dysregulated genes and found that these IBD-related modules share cis-regulatory elements that are responsive to the STAT2, SMAD3, and REL transcription factors. We used module quantitative trait locus analyses to identify genetic loci associated with the expression of these modules. Through a prioritization scheme involving systems genetics in the mouse and integration with external human datasets, we identified Muc4 and Epha6 as the top candidates mediating differences in HFD-driven intestinal inflammation. This work provides insights into the contribution of genetics and diet to IBD risk and identifies two candidate genes, MUC4 and EPHA6, that may mediate IBD susceptibility in humans.
Mycolactone is a bacteria-derived macrolide that blocks the biogenesis of a large array of secretory and integral transmembrane proteins (TMP) through potent inhibition of the Sec61 translocon. Here, ...we used quantitative proteomics to delineate the direct and indirect effects of mycolactone-mediated Sec61 blockade in living cells. In T lymphocytes, dendritic cells and sensory neurons, Sec61 substrates downregulated by mycolactone were in order of incidence: secretory proteins (with a signal peptide but no transmembrane domain), TMPs with a signal peptide (Type I) and TMPs without signal peptide and a cytosolic N terminus (Type II). TMPs without a signal peptide and the opposite N terminus topology (Type III) were refractory to mycolactone inhibition. This rule applied comparably to single- and multi-pass TMPs, and extended to exogenous viral proteins. Parallel to its broad-spectrum inhibition of Sec61-mediated protein translocation, mycolactone rapidly induced cytosolic chaperones Hsp70/Hsp90. Moreover, it activated an atypical endoplasmic reticulum stress response, differing from conventional unfolded protein response by the down-regulation of Bip. In addition to refining our mechanistic understanding of Sec61 inhibition by mycolactone, our findings thus reveal that Sec61 blockade induces proteostatic stress in the cytosol and the endoplasmic reticulum.
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