Background Great progress has been made toward the elimination of trachoma as a public-health problem. Mathematical and statistical models have been used to forecast when the program will attain the ...goal of the elimination of active trachoma, defined as prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular in 1-9 year olds (TF.sub.1-9) <5%. Here we use program data to create an empirical model predicting the year of attaining global elimination of TF.sub.1-9. Methodology/Principal findings We calculated the mean number of years (95% CI) observed for an implementation unit (IU) to move from a baseline TF.sub.1-9 prevalence greater than or equal to5% to the elimination threshold, based on the region (Ethiopia vs. non-Ethiopia) and baseline prevalence category. Ethiopia IUs had significantly different rates of reaching the TF.sub.1-9 elimination threshold after a trachoma impact survey (TIS) compared to non-Ethiopia IUs across all baseline categories. We used those estimates to predict when remaining active trachoma-endemic IUs (TF.sub.1-9 greater than or equal to5%) would have their last round of mass drug administration (MDA) based on the mean number of years required and number of MDA rounds already completed. Our model predicts that elimination of TF.sub.1-9 will be achieved in 2028 in Ethiopia (95% CI: 2026-2033) and 2029 outside of Ethiopia (95% CI: 2023-2034), with some IUs in East Africa predicted to be the last requiring MDA globally. Conclusions/Significance Our empirical estimate is similar to those resulting from previous susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and mathematical models, suggesting that the forecast achievement of TF.sub.1-9 elimination is realistic with the caveat that although disease elimination progress can be predicted for most IUs, there is an important minority of IUs that is not declining or has not yet started trachoma elimination activities. These IUs represent an important barrier to the timely global elimination of active trachoma.
By sustaining transmission or causing malaria outbreaks, imported malaria undermines malaria elimination efforts. Few studies have examined the impact of travel on malaria epidemiology. We conducted ...a literature review and meta-analysis of studies investigating travel as a risk factor for malaria infection in sub-Saharan Africa using PubMed. We identified 22 studies and calculated a random-effects meta-analysis pooled odds ratio (OR) of 3.77 (95% CI: 2.49-5.70), indicating that travel is a significant risk factor for malaria infection. Odds ratios were particularly high in urban locations when travel was to rural areas, to more endemic/high transmission areas, and in young children. Although there was substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of association across the studies, the pooled estimate and directional consistency support travel as an important risk factor for malaria infection.
The Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma has set the target for eliminating trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. However, challenges remain, including socio-cultural issues. ...Districts in Northern Tanzania, predominantly inhabited by the Maasai ethnic group, remain endemic for trachoma. We explored socio-cultural factors that may impact the elimination of trachoma.
This study was nested within a larger ethnographic study of trachoma among Maasai in Northern Tanzania. We used stratified random sampling and semi-structured interviews to examine knowledge and understanding. Interviews were conducted and recorded in Maa, by a native Maa speaking trained interviewer. Transcripts were translated into English. A framework method for a content analysis was used. There was awareness of trachoma and basic symptoms. Yet understanding of etiology and prevention was poor. Trachoma was attributed to pollen, dust, and smoke. Water was recognized as beneficial, but seen as treatment and not prevention. Traditional medicines were most often used for treating conjunctival inflammation, with the most common being a rough leaf used to scratch the inside of the eyelid until it bleeds. Knowledge of mass drug administration (MDA) was inconsistent, although many thought it helped the community, but it was perceived as only for children and the sick. Many participants reported not taking azithromycin and some had no recollection of MDA six months earlier. There was little connection between childhood infection, trichiasis and related blindness. Trichiasis was often seen as a problem of old women, and treated locally by epilation.
Understanding indigenous knowledge may help guide control programs, tailor them to local contexts, address local beliefs and dispel misunderstandings. There is an essential need to understand the social, cultural and political context of the target community to deliver effective programs. Despite limited knowledge, the community recognized trachoma as a public health problem. Results have implications for disease control programs in other marginalized communities.
Trachoma is targeted for global elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Understanding individual, household, or community-associated factors that may lead to continued transmission or risk of ...recrudescence in areas where elimination has previously been achieved, is essential in reaching and maintaining trachoma elimination. We aimed to identify climatic, demographic, environmental, infrastructural, and socioeconomic factors associated in the literature with trachoma at community-level and assess the strength of their association with trachoma. Because of the potential power of geospatial analysis to delineate the variables most strongly associated with differences in trachoma prevalence, we then looked in detail at geospatial analysis methods used in previous trachoma studies.
We conducted a systematic literature review using five databases: Medline, Embase, Global Health, Dissertations & Theses Global, and Web of Science, including publications from January 1950 to January 2021. The review protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020191718).
Of 35 eligible studies, 29 included 59 different trachoma-associated factors, with eight studies also including spatial analysis methods. Six studies included spatial analysis methods only. Higher trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence was associated with areas that: had lower mean annual precipitation, lower mean annual temperatures, and lower altitudes; were rural, were less accessible, had fewer medical services, had fewer schools; and had lower access to water and sanitation. Higher trachomatous trichiasis (TT) prevalence was associated with higher aridity index and increased distance to stable nightlights. Of the 14 studies that included spatial methods, 11 used exploratory spatial data analysis methods, three used interpolation methods, and seven used spatial modelling methods.
Researchers and decision-makers should consider the inclusion and potential influence of trachoma-associated factors as part of both research activities and programmatic priorities. The use of geospatial methods in trachoma studies remains limited but offers the potential to define disease hotspots and areas of potential recrudescence to inform local, national, and global programmatic needs.
Millions of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) have been distributed as part of the global malaria control strategy. LLIN ownership, however, does not necessarily guarantee use. Thus, even ...in the ideal setting in which universal coverage with LLINs has been achieved, maximal malaria protection will only be achieved if LLINs are used both correctly and consistently. This study investigated the factors associated with net use, independent of net ownership. Data were collected during a household survey conducted in Ebonyi State in southeastern Nigeria in November 2011 following a statewide mass LLIN distribution campaign and, in select locations, a community-based social behavior change (SBC) intervention. Logistic regression analyses, controlling for household bed net ownership, were conducted to examine the association between individual net use and various demographic, environmental, behavioral and social factors. The odds of net use increased among individuals who were exposed to tailored SBC in the context of a home visit (OR = 17.11; 95% CI 4.45-65.79) or who received greater degrees of social support from friends and family (ptrend < 0.001). Factors associated with decreased odds of net use included: increasing education level (ptrend = 0.020), increasing malaria knowledge level (ptrend = 0.022), and reporting any disadvantage of bed nets (OR = 0.39; 95% CI 0.23-0.78). The findings suggest that LLIN use is significantly influenced by social support and exposure to a malaria-related SBC home visit. The malaria community should thus further consider the importance of community outreach, interpersonal communication and social support on adoption of net use behaviors when designing future research and interventions.
Ownership of insecticidal mosquito nets has dramatically increased in Ethiopia since 2006, but the proportion of persons with access to such nets who use them has declined. It is important to ...understand individual level net use factors in the context of the home to modify programmes so as to maximize net use.
Generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM) were used to investigate net use using individual level data from people living in net-owning households from two surveys in Ethiopia: baseline 2006 included 12,678 individuals from 2,468 households and a sub-sample of the Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) in 2007 included 14,663 individuals from 3,353 households. Individual factors (age, sex, pregnancy); net factors (condition, age, net density); household factors (number of rooms 2006 or sleeping spaces 2007, IRS, women's knowledge and school attendance 2007 only, wealth, altitude); and cluster level factors (rural or urban) were investigated in univariate and multi-variable models for each survey.
In 2006, increased net use was associated with: age 25-49 years (adjusted (a) OR = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.7) compared to children U5; female gender (aOR = 1.4; 95% CI 1.2-1.5); fewer nets with holes (Ptrend = 0.002); and increasing net density (Ptrend < 0.001). Reduced net use was associated with: age 5-24 years (aOR = 0.2; 95% CI 0.2-0.3). In 2007, increased net use was associated with: female gender (aOR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.6); fewer nets with holes (aOR all nets in HH good = 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.1); increasing net density (Ptrend < 0.001); increased women's malaria knowledge (Ptrend < 0.001); and urban clusters (aOR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.5-4.1). Reduced net use was associated with: age 5-24 years (aOR = 0.3; 95% CI 0.2-0.4); number of sleeping spaces (aOR per additional space = 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7); more old nets (aOR all nets in HH older than 12 months = 0.5; 95% CI 0.3-0.7); and increasing household altitude (Ptrend < 0.001).
In both surveys, net use was more likely by women, if nets had fewer holes and were at higher net per person density within households. School-age children and young adults were much less likely to use a net. Increasing availability of nets within households (i.e. increasing net density), and improving net condition while focusing on education and promotion of net use, especially in school-age children and young adults in rural areas, are crucial areas for intervention to ensure maximum net use and consequent reduction of malaria transmission.
Trachoma programs use annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) in evaluation units (EUs) that generally encompass 100,000-250,000 people. After one, three, or five MDA rounds, programs ...undertake impact surveys. Where impact survey prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1- to 9-year-olds is ≥ 5%, ≥ 1 additional MDA rounds are recommended before resurvey. Impact survey costs, and the proportion of impact surveys returning TF prevalence ≥ 5% (the failure rate or, less pejoratively, the MDA continuation rate), therefore influence the cost of eliminating trachoma. We modeled, for illustrative EU sizes, the financial cost of undertaking MDA with and without conducting impact surveys. As an example, we retrospectively assessed how conducting impact surveys affected costs in the United Republic of Tanzania for 2017-2018. For EUs containing 100,000 people, the median (interquartile range) cost of continuing MDA without doing impact surveys is USD 28,957 (17,581-36,197) per EU per year, whereas continuing MDA solely where indicated by impact survey results costs USD 17,564 (12,158-21,694). If the mean EU population is 100,000, then continuing MDA without impact surveys becomes advantageous in financial cost terms only when the continuation rate exceeds 71%. For the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017-2018, doing impact surveys saved enough money to provide MDA for > 1,000,000 people. Although trachoma impact surveys have a nontrivial cost, they generally save money, providing EUs have > 50,000 inhabitants, the continuation rate is not excessive, and they generate reliable data. If all EUs pass their impact surveys, then we have waited too long to do them.
Tanzania has made remarkable progress in reducing malaria burden and aims to transition from malaria control to sub-national elimination. In 2013, electronic weekly and monthly reporting platforms ...using the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) were introduced. Weekly reporting was implemented through the mobile phone-based Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (eIDSR) platform and progressively scaled-up from 67 to 7471 (100%) public and private health facilities between 2013 and 2020. This study describes the roll-out and large-scale implementation of eIDSR and compares the consistency between weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 malaria indicator data reporting, including an assessment of its usefulness for malaria outbreak detection and case-based surveillance (CBS) in low transmission areas.
The indicators included in the analysis were number of patients tested for malaria, number of confirmed malaria cases, and clinical cases (treated presumptively for malaria). The analysis described the time trends of reporting, testing, test positivity, and malaria cases between 2013 and 2021. For both weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 data, comparisons of annual reporting completeness, malaria cases and annualized incidence were performed for 2020 and 2021; additionally, comparisons were stratified by malaria epidemiological strata (parasite prevalence: very low < 1%, low 1 ≤ 5%, moderate 5 ≤ 30%, and high > 30%).
Weekly eIDSR reporting completeness steadily improved over time, with completeness being 90.2% in 2020 and 93.9% in 2021; conversely, monthly DHIS2 reporting completeness was 98.9% and 98.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Weekly eIDSR reporting completeness and timeliness were highest in the very low epidemiological stratum. Annualized malaria incidence as reported by weekly eIDSR was 17.5% and 12.4% lower than reported by monthly DHIS2 in 2020 and 2021; for both 2020 and 2021, annualized incidence was similar across weekly and monthly data in the very low stratum.
The concurrence of annualized weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 reporting completeness, malaria cases and incidence in very low strata suggests that eIDSR could be useful tool for early outbreak detection, and the eIDSR platform could reliably be expanded by adding more indicators and modules for CBS in the very low epidemiological stratum.
Over the past two decades, Zanzibar substantially reduced malaria burden. As malaria decreases, sustainable improvements in control interventions may increasingly depend on accurate knowledge of ...malaria risk factors to further target interventions. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with malaria infection in Zanzibar.
Surveillance data from Zanzibar's Malaria Case Notification system from August 2012 and December 2019 were analyzed. This system collects data on malaria cases passively detected and reported by all health facilities (index cases), and household-based reactive case detection (RCD) activities linked to those primary cases. All members of households of the index cases were screened for malaria using a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Individuals with a positive RDT were treated with artemisinin-based combination therapy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to investigate the association between RDT positivity among the household members and explanatory factors with adjustment for seasonality and clustering at Shehia level.
A total of 30,647 cases were reported of whom household RCD was completed for 21,443 (63%) index case households and 85,318 household members tested for malaria. The findings show that younger age (p-value for trend Ptrend < 0.001), history of fever in the last 2 weeks (odds ratio OR = 35.7; 95% CI 32.3-39.5), travel outside Zanzibar in the last 30 days (OR = 2.5; 95% CI 2.3-2.8) and living in Unguja (OR = 1.2; 95% CI 1.0-1.5) were independently associated with increased odds of RDT positivity. In contrast, male gender (OR=0.8; 95% CI 0.7-0.9), sleeping under an LLIN the previous night (OR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.7-0.9), having higher household net access (Ptrend < 0.001), and living in a household that received IRS in the last 12 months (OR = 0.8; 95% CI 0.7-0.9) were independently associated with reduced odds of RDT positivity. A significant effect modification of combining IRS and LLIN was also noted (OR = 0.7; 95% CI 0.6-0.8).
The findings suggest that vector control remains an important malaria prevention intervention: they underscore the need to maintain universal access to LLINs, the persistent promotion of LLIN use, and application of IRS. Additionally, enhanced behavioural change and preventive strategies targeting children aged 5-14 years and travellers are needed.
Malaria in pregnancy (MiP) remains a major public health challenge in areas of high malaria transmission. Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is ...recommended to prevent the adverse consequences of MiP. The effectiveness of SP for IPTp may be reduced in areas where the dhps581 mutation (a key marker of high level SP resistance) is found; this mutation was previously reported to be common in the Tanga Region of northern Tanzania, but there are limited data from other areas. The frequency of molecular markers of SP resistance was investigated in malaria parasites from febrile patients at health centres (HC) in seven regions comprising the Lake and Southern Zones of mainland Tanzania as part of the ongoing efforts to generate national-wide data of SP resistance.
A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the outpatient departments of 14 HCs in seven regions from April to June, 2015. 1750 dried blood spot (DBS) samples were collected (117 to 160 per facility) from consenting patients with positive rapid diagnostic tests for malaria, and no recent (within past 2 months) exposure to SP or related drugs. DNA was extracted from the DBS, pooled by HC, and underwent pooled targeted amplicon deep sequencing to yield estimates of mutated parasite allele frequency at each locus of interest.
The dhps540 mutation was common across all 14 sites, ranging from 55 to 98.4% of sequences obtained. Frequency of the dhps581 mutation ranged from 0 to 2.4%, except at Kayanga HC (Kagera Region, Lake Zone) where 24.9% of sequences obtained were mutated. The dhfr164 mutation was detected only at Kanyanga HC (0.06%).
By pooling DNA extracts, the allele frequency of mutations in 14 sites could be directly determined on a single deep-sequencing run. The dhps540 mutant was very common at all locations. Surprisingly, the dhps581 was common at one health center, but rare in all the others, suggesting that there is geographic micro-heterogeneity in mutant distribution and that accurate surveillance requires inclusion of multiple sites. A better understanding of the effect of the dhps581 mutant on the efficacy of IPTp-SP is needed.
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