The future of employment Frey, Carl Benedikt; Osborne, Michael A
Technological forecasting & social change,
2017, January 2017, 2017-01-00, 20170101, Letnik:
114, Številka:
January
Journal Article
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Odprti dostop
We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using ...a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupations probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment.
Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A.; Girolami, Mark
Proceedings - Royal Society. Mathematical, physical and engineering sciences,
07/2015, Letnik:
471, Številka:
2179
Journal Article
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We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return ...uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.
Accurate on-board capacity estimation is of critical importance in lithium-ion battery applications. Battery charging/discharging often occurs under a constant current load, and hence voltage versus ...time measurements under this condition may be accessible in practice. This paper presents a data-driven diagnostic technique, Gaussian process regression for in situ capacity estimation (GP-ICE), which estimates battery capacity using voltage measurements over short periods of galvanostatic operation. Unlike previous works, GP-ICE does not rely on interpreting the voltage-time data as incremental capacity (IC) or differential voltage (DV) curves. This overcomes the need to differentiate the voltage-time data (a process that amplifies measurement noise), and the requirement that the range of voltage measurements encompasses the peaks in the IC/DV curves. GP-ICE is applied to two datasets, consisting of 8 and 20 cells, respectively. In each case, within certain voltage ranges, as little as 10 s of galvanostatic operation enables capacity estimates with approximately 2%-3% root-mean-squared error (RMSE).
Stress is a pervasive component of the human experience. While often considered an adversity to be ignored, chronic stress has important pathological consequences, including cardiovascular disease ...(CVD). Stress also increases the prevalence and severity of several CVD risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and obesity. Yet even after adjustment, stress' attributable CVD risk is similar to those risk factors, suggesting it is a particularly potent contributor. Nevertheless, there has been insufficient study of mechanisms linking stress to CVD or of methods to attenuate stress' pathological impact. This review covers the current concepts of how stress impacts CVD and emerging approaches to mitigate stress-attributable CVD risk.
Imaging Cardiovascular Calcification Wang, Ying; Osborne, Michael T; Tung, Brian ...
Journal of the American Heart Association,
06/2018, Letnik:
7, Številka:
13
Journal Article
Probabilistic Integration Briol, François-Xavier; Oates, Chris J.; Girolami, Mark ...
Statistical science,
02/2019, Letnik:
34, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein discretisation error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical ...challenges, including the design of statistical methods that enable the coherent propagation of probabilities through a (possibly deterministic) computational work-flow, in order to assess the impact of discretisation error on the computer output. This paper examines the case for probabilistic numerical methods in routine statistical computation. Our focus is on numerical integration, where a probabilistic integrator is equipped with a full distribution over its output that reflects the fact that the integrand has been discretised. Our main technical contribution is to establish, for the first time, rates of posterior contraction for one such method. Several substantial applications are provided for illustration and critical evaluation, including examples from statistical modelling, computer graphics and a computer model for an oil reservoir.
Abstract
Aims
Coronary microvascular ischaemia, cardiomyocyte injury and stiffness may play an important role in the pathophysiology of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). To ...date, the relationship between coronary flow reserve (CFR), myocardial injury, diastolic dysfunction, and future HFpEF risk is unknown.
Methods and results
Consecutive patients (n = 201) undergoing evaluation for suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) with stress myocardial perfusion positron emission tomography, serum troponin, and transthoracic echocardiography who did not have flow-limiting CAD or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction were identified. Patients were followed up (median 4.1 years) for cardiovascular death and hospitalization for non-fatal myocardial infarction or heart failure. Coronary flow reserve was quantified as stress/rest myocardial blood flow. Early diastolic flow (E) and relaxation (e′) velocities were obtained via transmitral and tissue Doppler, respectively. Patients with impaired CFR (<2, n = 108) demonstrated linearly decreasing e′ and increasing E/e′ consistent with worsening diastolic function (P for trend <0.0001). A detectable troponin was associated with diastolic dysfunction only in the presence of impaired CFR (interaction P = 0.002). In adjusted analyses, impaired CFR was independently associated with diastolic dysfunction (E/e′septal > 15, adjusted OR 2.58, 95%CI 1.22–5.48) and composite cardiovascular outcomes or HFpEF hospitalization alone (adjusted HR 2.47, 95%CI 1.09–5.62). Patients with both impaired CFR and diastolic dysfunction demonstrated >five-fold increased risk of HFpEF hospitalization (P < 0.001).
Conclusion
In symptomatic patients without overt CAD, impaired CFR was independently associated with diastolic dysfunction and adverse events, especially HFpEF hospitalization. The presence of both coronary microvascular and diastolic dysfunctions was associated with a markedly increased risk of HFpEF events.
Psychosocial Stress and Cardiovascular Disease Dar, Tawseef; Radfar, Azar; Abohashem, Shady ...
Current treatment options in cardiovascular medicine,
05/2019, Letnik:
21, Številka:
5
Journal Article
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Purpose of review
This manuscript reviews the epidemiological data linking psychosocial stress to cardiovascular disease (CVD), describes recent advances in understanding the biological pathway ...between them, discusses potential therapies against stress-related CVD, and identifies future research directions.
Recent findings
Metabolic activity of the amygdala (a neural center that is critically involved in the response to stress) can be measured on
18
F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (
18
F-FDG-PET/CT) yielding a neurobiological signal that independently predicts subsequent CVD events. Furthermore, a serial pathway from ↑amygdalar activity → ↑hematopoietic tissue activity → ↑arterial inflammation → ↑CVD events has been elucidated, providing new insights into the mechanism linking stress to CVD.
Summary
Psychosocial stress and stress conditions are independently associated with CVD in a manner that depends on the degree and duration of stress as well as the individual response to a stressor. Nevertheless, the fundamental biology remains incompletely defined, and stress is often confounded by adverse health behaviors. Thus, most clinical guidelines do not yet recognize psychosocial stress as an independent CVD risk factor or advocate for its treatment in CVD prevention. Clarification of this neurobiological pathway provides a better understanding of the underlying pathophysiology and suggests opportunities to develop novel preventive strategies and therapies.
Although the number of clinical applications for fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) cardiac positron emission tomography (PET) has continued to grow, there remains a lack of consensus regarding ...the ideal method of suppressing normal myocardial glucose utilization for image optimization. This review describes various patient preparation protocols that have been used as well as the success rates achieved in different studies. Collectively, the available literature supports using a high-fat, no-carbohydrate diet for at least two meals with a fast of 4-12 hours prior to 18F-FDG PET imaging and suggests that isolated fasting for less than 12 hours and supplementation with food or drink just prior to imaging should be avoided. Each institution should adopt a protocol and continuously monitor its effectiveness with a goal to achieve adequate myocardial suppression in greater than 80% of patients.
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