The Democratic Deficit in the States Lax, Jeffrey R.; Phillips, Justin H.
American journal of political science,
January 2012, Letnik:
56, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We study how well states translate public opinion into policy. Using national surveys and advances in subnational opinion estimation, we estimate state-level support for 39 policies across eight ...issue areas, including abortion, law enforcement, health care, and education. We show that policy is highly responsive to policy-specific opinion, even controlling for other influences. But we also uncover a striking "democratic deficit": policy is congruent with majority will only half the time. The analysis considers the influence of institutions, salience, partisan control of government, and interest groups on the magnitude and ideological direction of this democratic deficit. We find the largest influences to be legislative professionalization, term limits, and issue salience. Partisanship and interest groups affect the ideological balance of incongruence more than the aggregate degree thereof. Finally, policy is overresponsive to ideology and party—leading policy to be polarized relative to state electorates.
With limited authority over state lawmaking, but ultimate responsibility for the performance of government, how effective are governors in moving their programs through the legislature? This book ...advances a new theory about what makes chief executives most successful and explores this theory through original data. Thad Kousser and Justin H. Phillips argue that negotiations over the budget, on the one hand, and policy bills on the other are driven by fundamentally different dynamics. They capture these dynamics in models informed by interviews with gubernatorial advisors, cabinet members, press secretaries and governors themselves. Through a series of novel empirical analyses and rich case studies, the authors demonstrate that governors can be powerful actors in the lawmaking process, but that what they're bargaining over – the budget or policy – shapes both how they play the game and how often they can win it.
We compare two approaches for estimating state-level public opinion: disaggregation by state of national surveys and a simulation approach using multilevel modeling of individual opinion and ...poststratification by population share. We present the first systematic assessment of the predictive accuracy of each and give practical advice about when and how each method should be used. To do so, we use an original data set of over 100 surveys on gay rights issues as well as 1988 presidential election data. Under optimal conditions, both methods work well, but multilevel modeling performs better generally. Compared to baseline opinion measures, it yields smaller errors, higher correlations, and more reliable estimates. Multilevel modeling is clearly superior when samples are smaller-indeed, one can accurately estimate state opinion using only a single large national survey. This greatly expands the scope of issues for which researchers can study subnational opinion directly or as an influence on policymaking.
We study the effects of policy-specific public opinion on state adoption of policies affecting gays and lesbians, and the factors that condition this relationship. Using national surveys and advances ...in opinion estimation, we create new estimates of state-level support for eight policies, including civil unions and nondiscrimination laws. We differentiate between responsiveness to opinion and congruence with opinion majorities. We find a high degree of responsiveness, controlling for interest group pressure and the ideology of voters and elected officials. Policy salience strongly increases the influence of policy-specific opinion (directly and relative to general voter ideology). There is, however, a surprising amount of noncongruence—for some policies, even clear supermajority support seems insufficient for adoption. When noncongruent, policy tends to be more conservative than desired by voters; that is, there is little progay policy bias. We find little to no evidence that state political institutions affect policy responsiveness or congruence.
Little is known about the relationships between symptomatic early severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load and upper airway mucosal gene expression and immune response. ...To examine the association of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 early viral load with upper airway mucosal gene expression, we profiled the host mucosal transcriptome from nasopharyngeal swab samples from 68 adults with symptomatic, mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). We measured SARS-CoV-2 viral load using reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). We then examined the association of SARS-CoV-2 viral load with upper airway mucosal immune response. We detected SARS-CoV-2 in all samples and recovered >80% of the genome from 95% of the samples from symptomatic COVID-19 adults. The respiratory virome was dominated by SARS-CoV-2, with limited codetection of other respiratory viruses, with the human Rhinovirus C being identified in 4 (6%) samples. This limited codetection of other respiratory viral pathogens may be due to the implementation of public health measures, like social distancing and masking practices. We observed a significant positive correlation between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and interferon signaling (OAS2, OAS3, IFIT1, UPS18, ISG15, ISG20, IFITM1, and OASL), chemokine signaling (CXCL10 and CXCL11), and adaptive immune system (IFITM1, CD300E, and SIGLEC1) genes in symptomatic, mild-to-moderate COVID-19 adults, when adjusting for age, sex, and race. Interestingly, the expression levels of most of these genes plateaued at a cycle threshold (
) value of ~25. Overall, our data show that the early nasal mucosal immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection is viral load dependent, potentially modifying COVID-19 outcomes.
Several prior studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 viral load can predict the likelihood of disease spread and severity. A higher detectable SARS-CoV-2 plasma viral load was associated with worse respiratory disease severity. However, the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 viral load, airway mucosal gene expression, and immune response remains elusive. We profiled the nasal mucosal transcriptome from nasal samples collected from adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 during spring 2020 with mild-to-moderate symptoms using a comprehensive metatranscriptomics method. We observed a positive correlation between SARS-CoV-2 viral load, interferon signaling, chemokine signaling, and adaptive immune system in adults with COVID-19. Our data suggest that early nasal mucosal immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection was viral load dependent and may modify COVID-19 outcomes.
The upper respiratory tract (URT) is the portal of entry of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and SARS-CoV-2 likely interacts with the URT microbiome. However, ...understanding of the associations between the URT microbiome and the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still limited.
Our primary objective was to identify URT microbiome signature/s that consistently changed over a spectrum of COVID-19 severity.
Using data from 103 adult participants from two cities in the United States, we compared the bacterial load and the URT microbiome between five groups: 20 asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-negative participants, 27 participants with mild COVID-19, 28 participants with moderate COVID-19, 15 hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19, and 13 hospitalized patients in the ICU with very severe COVID-19.
URT bacterial load, bacterial richness, and within-group microbiome composition dissimilarity consistently increased as COVID-19 severity increased, while the relative abundance of an amplicon sequence variant (ASV),
_unclassified.ASV0002, consistently decreased as COVID-19 severity increased.
We observed that the URT microbiome composition significantly changed as COVID-19 severity increased. The URT microbiome could potentially predict which patients may be more likely to progress to severe disease or be modified to decrease severity. However, further research in additional longitudinal cohorts is needed to better understand how the microbiome affects COVID-19 severity.
Public majorities have supported several gay rights policies for some time, yet Congress's response has been limited. We document and analyze this tension through dyadic analysis of the opinion-vote ...relationship on 23 roll calls between 1993 and 2010, revealing a nuanced picture of responsiveness and incongruence. While constituent preferences influence white male Democrats, black lawmakers and white female Democratic lawmakers generally support gay rights and Republicans consistently oppose them, regardless of constituent preferences. Moreover, changes in constituent opinion typically fail to engender vote changes. In sum, despite a degree of responsiveness to opinion, we find there is a persistent bias against constituent will on LGB rights.
Do senators respond to the preferences of their state’s median voter or only to the preferences of their copartisans? We develop a method for estimating state-level public opinion broken down by ...partisanship so that scholars can distinguish between general and partisan responsiveness. We use this to study responsiveness in the context of Senate confirmation votes on Supreme Court nominees. We find that senators weight their partisan base far more heavily when casting such roll call votes. Indeed, when their state median voter and party median voter disagree, senators strongly favor the latter. This has significant implications for the study of legislative responsiveness and the role of public opinion in shaping the members of the nation’s highest court. The methodological approach we develop enables more nuanced analyses of public opinion and its effects, as well as more finely grained studies of legislative behavior and policy making.
Public opinion polls consistently show that a growing majority of Americans support same-sex marriage. Critics, however, raise the possibility that these polls are plagued by social desirability ...bias, and thereby may overstate public support for gay and lesbian rights. We test this proposition using a list experiment embedded in the 2013 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. List experiments afford respondents an anonymity that allows them to provide more truthful answers to potentially sensitive survey items. Our experiment finds no evidence that social desirability is affecting overall survey results. If there is social desirability in polling on same-sex marriage, it pushes in both directions. Indeed, our efforts provide new evidence that a national opinion majority favors same-sex marriage. To evaluate the robustness of our findings, we analyze a second list experiment, this one focusing on the inclusion of sexual orientation in employment nondiscrimination laws. Again, we find no overall evidence of bias.
We argue that the costs of bargaining failure are important determinants of legislative delay and gridlock. When these costs are high, elected officials have a greater incentive to reach legislative ...bargains, even if doing so means compromising on their policy objectives. We develop and evaluate this claim in the context of state budgeting, treating late budgets as examples of fiscal gridlock. Specifically, we argue that budgetary gridlock imposes political and private costs on lawmakers, the magnitudes of which are shaped by institutions and features of the political environment. Our expectations are tested and confirmed using an original dataset of the timing of budget adoption for all states over a 46-year period. Though our investigation is set in the context of the states, we show that differences in the costs of bargaining failure can also account for variation in the patterns of budgetary delay across levels of government and (to a lesser extent) variation in fiscal gridlock within the federal government.
PDF
