The world’s coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial ...and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world’s most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985–2012), we show a major decline in coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y ⁻¹), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y ⁻¹ mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y ⁻¹, demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y ⁻¹, despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.
Key ecological features (KEFs) are elements of Australia’s Commonwealth marine environment considered to be important for biodiversity or ecosystem function, yet many KEFs are poorly researched, ...which can impede effective decision-making about future development and conservation. This study investigates a KEF positioned over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shoreline on the northwest shelf of Australia (known as the ‘Ancient Coastline at ~125m depth contour’; AC125). Seafloor bathymetry, sedimentology and benthic habitats were characterised within five study areas using multibeam sonar, sediment samples and towed video imagery. Direct evidence for the existence of a palaeoshoreline formed during the LGM was not found, however candidate areas to find palaeoshoreline material at or just below the modern seabed were discovered. Approximately 98% of the seabed surveyed was comprised of unconsolidated soft sediment habitat (mud/sand/silt) supporting negligible epibenthic biota. The prevalence of soft sediment suggests that post-glacial sediments have infilled parts of the palaeoshoreline, with cross-shelf, probably tidal currents in the northern section of the study area responsible for some of the sediment mobilisation and southern study areas more influenced by oceanic conditions. Within study areas, total biotic cover ranged from 0.02% to 1.07%. Of the biota encountered, most comprised filter feeder organisms (including gorgonians, sponges, and whip corals) whose distribution was associated with pockets of consolidated hard substrate. Benthic community composition varied with both study area and position in relation to the predicted AC125. In general, consolidated substrate was proportionally higher in water shallower than the AC125 compared to on the AC125 or deeper than the AC125. Spatially continuous maps of predicted benthic habitat classes (pre-determined benthic communities) in each study area were developed to characterise biodiversity. Spatial modelling corroborated depth and large-scale structural complexity of the seafloor as surrogates for predicting likely habitat class. This study provides an important assessment of the AC125 and shows that if a distinct coastline exists in the areas we surveyed, it is now largely buried and as such does not provide a unique hard substrate habitat. However, much work remains to fully locate and map the ancient coastline within the vast region of the AC125 and additional surveys in shallow waters adjacent to the AC125 may identify whether some sections lie outside the currently defined KEF.
Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. ...However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40–50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12–18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.
Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due ...to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs – hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well‐timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region‐wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build‐up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995–2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co‐occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation.
The predominance of self‐recruitment in many reef‐building corals has fundamental and complex consequences for their genetic diversity, population persistence and responses to climate change. ...Knowledge of genetic structure over local scales needs to be placed within a broad spatial context, and also integrated with genetic monitoring through time to disentangle these consequences. Here, we examined patterns of genetic diversity over multiple spatio‐temporal scales across tropical Australia in the ubiquitous brooding coral, Seriatopora hystrix. We also analysed complimentary environmental and demographic data to elucidate the seascape drivers of these patterns. Large genetic differences were detected between the east vs. west coasts of Australia. In northwest Australia, geographic differentiation dominated genetic structure over multiple scales. However, three sympatric lineages were detected at the largest offshore reef system (Scott Reef). Similar to the differences observed among putative species in eastern Australia, these lineages were associated with different levels of wave exposure. Local genetic structure within the Scott Reef system was relatively stable over 10 years, but temporal differences were observed that reflected small but important genetic changes over a few generations during recovery after severe bleaching. These results highlight the importance of self‐recruitment together with occasional longer distance connectivity for the persistence of a metapopulation across spatially and temporally variable environments. Our multidimensional research provides a foundation for further long‐term genetic monitoring to inform conservation strategies and highlights that sampling scales, ecological effects and cryptic diversity are important considerations to develop realistic understanding of the evolutionary resilience of corals.
Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs ...in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.
Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the ...environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.
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•We assessed the contribution of multiple stressors to reef state and performance.•Cumulative metrics of acute stressors were stronger predictors of reef health.•Water quality impacts ...are better detected on reef performance than reef state.•Temporal constraints in water quality data limit detectability of their effects.•Metrics based on coral types can be better indicators than total coral metrics.
Coral bleaching, cyclones, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns seastar, and reduced water quality (WQ) threaten the health and resilience of coral reefs. The cumulative impacts from multiple acute and chronic stressors on “reef State” (i.e., total coral cover) and “reef Performance” (i.e., the deviation from expected rate of total coral cover increase) have rarely been assessed simultaneously, despite their management relevance. We evaluated the dynamics of coral cover (total and per morphological groups) in the Central and Southern Great Barrier Reef over 25 years, and identified and compared the main environmental drivers of State and Performance at the reef level (i.e. based on total coral cover) and per coral group. Using a combination of 25 environmental metrics that consider both the frequency and magnitude of impacts and their lagged effects, we find that the stressors that correlate with State differed from those correlating with Performance. Importantly, we demonstrate that WQ metrics better predict Performance than State. Further, inter-annual dynamics in WQ (here available for a subset of the data) improved the explanatory power of WQ metrics on Performance over long-term WQ averages. The lagged effects of cumulative acute stressors, and to a lesser extent poor water quality, correlated negatively with the Performance of some but not all coral groups. Tabular Acropora and branching non-Acropora were the most affected by water quality demonstrating that group-specific approaches aid in the interpretation of monitoring data and can be crucial for the detection of the impact of chronic pressures. We highlight the complexity of coral reef dynamics and the need of evaluating Performance metrics in order to prioritise local management interventions.
Tropical cyclones can dramatically reduce coral cover, coral diversity and structural complexity, which can all cause flow-on effects to fish communities. In 2016, Fiji sustained extensive damage ...from one of the most severe cyclones recorded in the southern hemisphere (Category 5 cyclone Winston). We assessed the impacts of cyclone Winston on the coral reef habitat and fish assemblages in Kubulau and Levuka districts in Fiji. Wave modelling showed that cyclone-generated waves were substantially larger and persisted longer in Levuka than Kubulau. Damage to live corals was spatially variable and highest in Levuka, with the extent of damage highly correlated to the exposure, height and duration of waves at each site. We recorded increases in macroalgae directly after the cyclone and increases in encrusting coralline algae two years after the cyclone. We did not detect many changes in the fish assemblage caused by cyclone Winston. Obligate corallivores, and species within this group,
Chaetodon baronessa
and
Labrichthys unilineatus
, were the only fish to show a decline post-cyclone, most likely caused by declines in coral cover. We found that the modelling of cyclone wave dynamics (wave height, duration and exposure) explained the variation and damage to live corals better than proximity to the cyclone path, providing a useful tool to predict cyclone damage. Future climate models predict that more cyclones will reach the highest intensities. Understanding the impact this will have on vulnerable coastal communities that are dependent on marine resources and are protected from wave energy by reefs is essential for effective mitigation and adaptive management plans.
It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those ...areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? We first defined this problem mathematically for 2 alternate conservation objectives. We then analytically solved this problem for both objectives and determined under which conditions each of the different protection strategies was optimal. If the conservation objective was to maximize the chance of having at least 1 healthy site, then the best strategy was protection of the site at lowest risk. On the other hand, if the goal was to maximize the expected number of healthy sites, the optimal strategy was more complex. If protected sites were likely to spend a significant amount of time in a degraded state, then it was best to protect low-risk sites. Alternatively, if most areas were generally healthy then, counterintuitively, it was best to protect sites at higher risk. We applied these strategies to a situation of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. With regard to the risk of cyclone disturbance, the optimal reef to protect differed dramatically, depending on the expected speed of reef recovery of both protected and unprotected reefs. An adequate consideration of risk is fundamental to all conservation actions and can indicate surprising routes to conservation success.
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