•Both models have applicability in prediction of group-occurring shallow landslides.•Combining Scoops3D and TRIGRS shows more effective landslide prediction result.•TRIGRS has the problem of ...over-prediction in the simulation of unstable area.•Fitting curve of rainfall threshold supports landslide warning in basin lacking data.
The stability evaluation of rainfall-induced landslides using a physical determination model supports disaster prevention, but it is mostly applied to the area with few landslides, and there is a lack of quantitative study on rainfall and landslide stability. This paper combined the Scoops3D model with the TRIGRS model (3D) to predict the shallow landslide spatiotemporal distribution and compared the simulation results with those of the TRIGRS model alone (1D), aiming to obtain more accurate assessment results. At the same time, the relationship between landslide stability and accumulative rainfall was quantitatively fitted to improve the real-time landslide prediction system. We applied the 1D and 3D models to the July 21, 2013 group-occurring landslide event (976 shallow landslides) in the Niangniangba basin, China. The required geotechnical parameters of both models were acquired by field and laboratory tests. We calculated the pressure head over time using the TRIGRS model based on practical rainfall data and predicted the shallow landslide stability using the Scoops3D model according to the resulting piezometric surface. We compared the landslide stability spatial distributions of the two models under initial and saturated conditions with the landslide catalogue. The success rate of landslides predicted by 3D model is 4.20% higher than 1D model. A composite index to quantitatively evaluate both models’ performances indicates over-prediction by the 1D model in the stable region, while the 3D model more effectively predicts shallow landslides with a smaller unstable region. The relationship between instability proportion and accumulative rainfall in the 1D and 3D model can be represented by y=24.57x0.18 and y=11.59x0.33, respectively. The 3D model shows more conservative result, and the rainfall threshold analysis proposed in this paper can provide reference for the time of most landslides in the case of insufficient data, which is an important indicator for disaster early warning and prediction.
The reactivation of landslides has always been a prominent problem that has endangered town construction and people’s safety worldwide. At about 8 a.m. on July 12, 2018, on a mountain near the ...Bailong River in Nanyu Township, Zhouqu County, Gansu Province, China, a landslide collapse event occurred. About 10,000 m
3
of sloped material slid into the Bailong River, with the largest stone reaching 3 m
3
. As a result, a large number of houses were flooded. Highways and bridges were destroyed. Using field investigations, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photography, InSAR traces, historical records, and multiple remote sensing images, we extracted the landslide’s geometry and geomorphic parameters to quantify the characteristics of the Jiangdingya landslide. Based on high-resolution topographic data collected before and after the landslide, the change in the geomorphological factors, geomorphologic stability, and detection of the precursory motion before the landslide failure were analyzed to fully investigate the temporal geomorphological changes. Synthesizing the above research, we discuss the causes of landslide reactivation. The Jiangdingya landslide is a typical ancient landslide formed by the coupling of internal and external dynamics. Rainfall, seismic fault zone activity, human activities, and river erosion were the main causes of this reactivation event.
In this study, we characterize and consider the effects of slope length and slope gradient on the size distributions of loess slides. To carry out this study, we employ data on 275 loess slides ...within Zhidan County, Central Loess Plateau, China. These data were collected in the field and supplemented by the interpretation of remote sensing images. Both the field observations and slope stability analysis show that loess slide size increases with the slope length. Slide sizes is significantly correlated with slope length, showing a power law relationship in both cases. However, the simulation results show that slope gradient is not associated with loess slide size. The main part of the link between slope gradient and slide size seen in the observations is only apparent, as indicated by the strong connection between slope gradient and length. Statistical analysis of the field observations reveals that slope gradient decreases with increasing slope length, and this correlation interferes with the potential relationship between landslide sizes and slope gradient seen in the field observations. In addition, the probability densities of the areas of loess slides occurring on slopes of different slope lengths are determined using kernel density estimation. This analysis shows that slope length controls the rollover of the frequency-size distribution of loess slides. The scaling exponent increases with slope length.
•Field observations and simulations of loess landslide size distribution•The size of loess landslides is controlled by the slope height and slope gradient.•The loess slide size increases with the slope height, whereas it decreases with the increase of slope gradient.•The slope height and slope gradient control the rollover of frequency-size distribution of loess slides.
•Subsidence caused by coal mining increases the likelihood of landslide occurrences.•Landslides occur in response to the spread of slow subsidence.•Subsidence curves can be adequately fitted with ...logistic regression.•The frequency ratio of landslides and fissures increases with subsidence.
Surface subsidence caused by underground coal mining affects the hillslope stability conditions. However, few studies have focused on the coupling relationship between slow surface subsidence and landslide occurrences. A detailed landslide and fissure inventory in a coal mining area in Shaanxi Province, China, was produced based on interpretation of multitemporal satellite images and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys. We used the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique and landslide and fissure spatiotemporal statistics to investigate the spreading process of the slow subsidence caused by underground mining and examined its impact on the occurrence of shallow landslides. The InSAR results indicate that the actual extent of the subsidence zone is larger than the range of underground mining, which formed a subsidence basin along the coal mining panels. The subsidence curves go through initial, accelerative, and slow subsidence stages and characterized by S-shaped, which can be adequately fitted with logistic regression. Moreover, subsidence does not cease after the end of coal exploitation. Logistic models predicted that the duration of residual subsidence reached about 2–3 years. Subsidence significantly increased the likelihood of landslide occurrences. The spatial pattern of landslides is associated with the actual coal mining. We also investigated the clustering phenomenon of landslides and fissures under the impacts of subsidence. The frequency ratio of landslides and fissures increased with the cumulative subsidence. Finally, we propose a schematic view for landslides caused by coal mining and precipitation. This study will be helpful for elucidating the spatial–temporal evolution of slow subsidence and its impact on loess landslides in coal mining area.
•The gas production from hydrate dissociation accounting for about 85%.•Analysis of the radius of the hydrate dissociation area in this production test.•Five-year prediction of long-term influence ...radius of pressure drop.•Exploration of favorable areas for the formation of secondary hydrates.•Analysis of the response of pressure and temperature of hydrate reservoirs.
The first offshore natural gas hydrate production test of China in 2017 has proved the feasibility of hydrate exploitation from clayey-silt reservoirs, which possesses the highest reservoirs than other types of hydrate resources. However, owing to the absence of monitoring wells in this production test, the hydrate dissociation behavior cannot be analyzed through pressure and temperature changes of hydrate reservoirs. This paper focuses on the simulation study on the detailed response of the temperature and pore pressure of hydrate reservoirs of Well SHSC-4 during the gas production by depressurization. Meanwhile, it highlights the analysis of favorable areas for the formation of secondary hydrates and the influence of the secondary hydrates on pressure and temperature field of hydrate reservoirs. The simulation results indicate that in the first 60 days, the hydrate reservoirs feature a dissociation radius of about 5 m, and the gas production from hydrate dissociation accounts for about 85%. After 1 year, 2 years and 5 years of hydrate exploitation, the influence radius of low-pressure area (<10 MPa) is 15 m, 16 m and 17 m, respectively, suggesting that the hydrate reservoirs have higher gas production efficiency in the first year. Furthermore, the temperature and pressure of hydrate reservoirs are not favorable to the formation of secondary hydrates in the first 60 days. In long-term production, secondary hydrates are mainly formed at hydrate dissociation front. This can increase the pore pressure and further decrease the effective stress in the local areas of hydrate reservoirs, thus affecting mechanical stability of the local hydrate reservoirs.
•The initial strain and the shear modulus are revealed with moisture contents.•A method for obtaining the long-term strength of loess specimens is proposed.•A modified Burgers creep models is ...proposed.
Understanding the creeping behavior of loess is of great importance as large-scale loess landslides are closely related with creep behavior. At present, it is still challenging to predict and estimate the long-term stability of such landslides. This is in a large degree due to the poor understanding of moisture control on creep behavior of loess. The purpose of this study is to decipher the loess creep behavior under various moisture contents (MCs) using loess specimens obtained from Baqiao landslide, Xi’an of China, using multi-loading triaxial creep tests under different MCs of 9%, 12%, 15%, 18% and 21%. Based on the laboratory test results, a series of relationships between the creep rate at the steady-state creep stage and the initial strain and initial shear modulus are revealed. Meanwhile, a method for obtaining the long-term strength of loess specimens, namely, the Steady-state Creep Rate Slope Method (SCRSM), is proposed. SCRSM resolves the issue in several conventional methods such as the Isochronous Stress-Strain Curve Method, the Tangent Method of Steady Creep Rate when MCs are of concern. Such an improvement is primarily due to a better way of finding the inflection point of the steady-state rate. It is found that SCRSM is robust and accurate to determine the long-term strength of loess specimens. Furthermore, we propose a modified Burgers model with a newly introduced nonlinear parameter n to overcome deficiencies of conventional creep models. This modified Burgers model is flexible to fit the creep test curves of loess, and can describe the curves at the accelerated creep stage more accurately. Lastly, the main factors triggering the Baqiao landslide is analyzed considering stratum lithology, rainfall and excavation. In general, this study provides a basis for understanding the evolutional process of loess landslides as well as guidelines for prevention, controlling and prediction of loess landslides.
•A coupled model for predicting landslide-debris flow hazard chains was proposed.•The coupled model is capable of predicting the hazard chain by the hour.•The input of landslide area influences the ...prediction of debris flow.•The rainfall threshold curve supports landslide prediction in areas lacking data.
Landslides, debris flows, and other destructive natural hazards induced by heavy rainfall in mountainous regions are sometimes not independent but combined to form a disaster chain. Based on the integral link between the triggering of the landslide and the subsequent debris flow, we propose an approach that combines the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope Stability (TRIGRS) model and the Rapid Mass Movements Simulation (RAMMS) model to achieve hourly hazard prediction. The results indicate that the TRIGRS model performed well in predicting the spatial distribution of the shallow landslides, with a success rate of 81.86%. Thus, it is reasonable to use it as the initial input for debris flow simulations. The relationship between the landslide area and the accumulated rainfall obtained using the TRIGRS model is a power-law relationship, which provides a reference for regions that lack rainfall data to predict the material source of a debris flow. The coupled model was found to have a good accuracy of 76.77% in simulating the debris flow. This was close to the debris flow simulation based on the interpreted landslides, and it still produced reasonable results and a more practical value. Furthermore, the proposed coupled model can dynamically predict disasters by the hour based on actual rainfall events. Therefore, the results of this study help provide a more complete hazard prediction picture for rainfall-induced landslide-debris flow hazards in mountainous regions.
•UAV surveys can be used for evaluating long-term hillslope morphology evolution.•Successive landslides influence frequency distributions of topographic features.•Successive landslides gradually ...reduce slope gradient, roughness and local relief.•The slope gradient changes with elevation.
Landslides are recognized as dominant geomorphic events of morphological evolution in most mountainous and hilly landscapes. However, the lack of multitemporal high-resolution topographic data has resulted in a lack of quantitative estimates of topographic changes influenced by successive landslides. Taking a typical hillslope with successive loess landslides in the Heifangtai loess tableland, China, as an example, we conducted four unmanned aerial system (UAS) surveys and created corresponding high-resolution digital elevation models (HRDEMs) and orthophotos. We found that multitemporal UAS surveys have become a powerful new approach for addressing local topographic changes and evolution over a relatively long time series. Moreover, landslides can leave persistent geomorphic imprints on hillslope topography. The frequency distributions of topographic indexes are significantly influenced by successive landslides. The mean slope gradient, roughness and local relief decreased with successive landslide occurrences, whereas the mean topographic wetness index (TWI) increased. However, the mean slope aspect was almost unchanged by successive landslides. Furthermore, analysis of the coefficient of variation demonstrates that the frequency distribution of the slope gradient becomes more dispersed with landslide occurrences, while the slope aspect and TWI become more concentrated. The slope gradient changes with elevation. More broadly, this study provides new insights into the prediction of the local topographic feature changes and morphology evolution trends caused by successive landslides.
Post-failure landslide change detection is crucial for mitigation strategies. However, the methods used to investigate this issue all involve a tough workflow, and the free access Sentinel-2 ...satellite is underutilized. In this study, we use ten Sentinel-2 optical images to explore the effectiveness of using these images to detect post-landslide changes in the Huangnibazi landslide failure using an easy workflow. We found that the landslide can be qualitatively divided into a startup and acceleration stage, a front and lateral edge expansion stage, and a stabilization stage using time-series true color images. After the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated to identify landslide scars, which were validated using the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) orthoimages, we found that the same three change processes identified were also reflected by the landslide scar count change analysis in a quantitative way. Based on the three different stages, a red-green-blue (RGB) composite of the NDVI images was constructed and was found to reflect the different change period of the right and left landslide edges. Most importantly, the changes within a pixel unit were detected using an NDVI RGB composite with cold colors representing a retrogressive landslide mode. All of these findings indicate that the huge potential of the use of Sentinel-2 images in similar applications.
Using the physical deterministic model to analyze landslide stability has become a hotspot of landslide disasters research all over the world. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution has a great ...influence on the simulation effect of 3 D physical models. However, few researchers have studied the prediction performance of the 3 D models under different DEM resolutions. Therefore, based on the 3 D model Scoops3D, the spatial distribution of landslides was simulated and predicted under five different DEMs resolutions (2.5 m, 5 m, 10 m, 20 m, and 30 m). The optimal parameters of the model were obtained through field investigations and laboratory experiments, and then, the simulation results were compared with the actual landslides distribution. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and %LR
class
index were used to quantitatively evaluate the prediction performance of the 3 D model under five different DEMs resolutions. The results show that Scoops3D has good performance in landslide spatial distribution prediction. In addition, we also found that the simulation results of high-resolution DEM were not ideal, while the prediction results of medium resolution DEMs (i.e., 5 m and 10 m) were more accurate. Therefore, this study provide a reference to select the most suitable DEM resolution for landslide stability analysis.
