Listovni razmjerni izborni sustav jedan je od najosporavanijih aspekata hrvatskoga političkog sustava nakon 2000. Međutim, kritičari rijetko nude sustavno komparativno uporište za svoje zamjerke. ...Ovaj članak popunjava tu prazninu te argumentira kako listovni razmjerni sustav u Hrvatskoj adekvatno funkcionira s obzirom na teorijske pretpostavke i u usporedbi s drugim listovnim razmjernim sustavima u Europskoj uniji. Na temelju komparativnih podataka o nerazmjernosti i efektivnom broju stranaka kao i analize efektivnog izbornog praga i efektivne veličine izbornog okruga, razmatraju se dva desetljeća uporabe ovoga izbornog sustava. Analiza pokazuje kako u bitnim karakteristikama učinci listovnoga razmjernog sustava ne odudaraju od teorijskih očekivanja i naspram drugih listovnih razmjernih sustava u Europskoj uniji. Također, pokazuje se kako varijacija u učincima listovnog razmjernog sustava u državama članicama Europske unije uvelike ovisi i o specifičnostima pojedine države, odnosno izbornoga sustava, a ne nekog od središnjih elemenata samog izbornog dizajna. Zaključno, može se tvrditi kako učinci listovnog razmjernog sustava u Hrvatskoj uvelike odgovaraju očekivanjima te stoga hrvatski slučaj možemo smatrati tipičnim, a ne izuzetnim.
The proportional representation electoral system is one of the most disputed aspects of the Croatian political system since 2000. However, critics rarely offer a systematic comparative basis for their objections. This article fills this gap and argues that the proportional representation system in Croatia functions adequately in relation to theoretical assumptions and in comparison to other proportional representation systems in the European Union. Based on comparative data on disproportionality and the effective number of parties, as well as an analysis of the effective electoral threshold and the effective size of the electoral district, two decades of using this electoral system are examined. The analysis shows that the effects of the proportional representation system do not deviate from theoretical expectations and are comparable to other proportional representation systems in the European Union in key characteristics. It also shows that the variation in the effects of the proportional representation system in European Union member states largely depends on the specificities of each state, i.e., the electoral system, rather than any central elements of the electoral design itself. In conclusion, it can be argued that the effects of the proportional representation system in Croatia largely correspond to expectations, and therefore, the Croatian case can be considered typical rather than exceptional.
Na temelju rezultata predizborne terenske ankete, autor istražuje strukturu društvenih rascjepa u Hrvatskoj u kontekstu parlamentarnih izbora 2020. Multinominalnom logističkom regresijom ispituje ...dosadašnje spoznaje o vrijednosnom rascjepu utemeljenu u religiji i identitetskom rascjepu utemeljenu na odnosu prema prošlosti, koji tvore kulturnu dimenziju stranačkog natjecanja. Testira se i moguća pojava novoga društvenog rascjepa ukorijenjenoga u razlikama u stavovima birača o ekonomskim pitanjima, kao i rascjepa vezana za pitanja suverenizma i zahtjeva za većom demokratskom participacijom. Istraživanje uvodi nove prediktorske ljestvice koje dosad nisu korištene u sličnim istraživanjima hrvatskih izbora. Evaluacija predloženoga regresijskog modela pokazala je kako su religioznost i odnos prema prošlosti ostali dominantni prediktori ponašanja birača u Hrvatskoj. Potvrđene su i značajne dobne razlike u ponašanju, pri čemu mlađi birači vjerojatnije podržavaju Domovinski pokret ili apstiniraju, a stariji birači vjerojatnije glasuju za koaliciju lijevog centra. Nalazi pokazuju kako se s porastom vrijednosti na ljestvici populizma smanjuje vjerojatnost glasovanja za HDZ. Zaključno se potvrđuju stabilnost vrijednosnoga i identitetskog rascjepa te značenje religije i prošlosti, ali se ne utvrđuje postojanje ekonomskoga rascjepa.
The article employs an electoral field survey to examine the social cleavages structure in Croatia in the context of the 2020 parliamentary election. Based on a multinomial logistic regression, the article assesses previous findings about a value cleavage rooted in religion, and an identity cleavage founded on views of the past, which combined make up the cultural dimension of party competition. The article also tests for a possible emergence of a new social cleavage, entrenched in voter opinions on economic issues, as well as cleavages pertaining to the issues of sovereignism and demands for more democratic participation. This study introduces new predictive scales which were not previous used in similar studies of Croatian elections. The evaluation of the proposed regression model has shown that religiosity and views of the past are still dominant predictors of voter behavior in Croatia. In addition, significant age differences were detected, whereby younger voters have a higher probability of supporting the Homeland Movement or abstaining, while older voters have greater chances of choosing the center-left coalition. The results also show that higher values on the populism scale lead to lower probability of voting for HDZ, the main center-right party. In conclusion, the article confirms the stability of the value and identity cleavages, as well as the significance of religion and the past, while not detecting the existence of an economic cleavage.
The article deals with the multifaceted reasons for the transformation of the Northern League from a Padanian regionalist and separatist party to an Italian nationalist sovereignist party which is ...gathering allies that want to bring the European Union back to its pre-Maastricht state. An analysis of electoral manifestos, the effects of Europeanization on party competition, party system change due to leadership change and of the impact of court cases on party life has shown that the Northern League has not been following a long-term trend of policy change but has done so under its new leader Salvini. Salvini has partially imported a sovereignist, nationalist vision from the EU party scene and nationalized the party on the national scene due to the power vacuum left after Berlusconi's resignation. The transformation combined Salvini's personal worldview with the pragmatism associated with the struggle to survive due to dangers of sequestration. The new Northern League is now capable of becoming a leading right-of-the-center party in Italy and of playing a decisive role in the rallying of hard Eurosceptics ahead of the 2019 European election.
This paper explores linguistic landscapes and the enactment of public visibility and presence of non-majority linguistic groups in EU member states. Non-majority linguistic groups gain power, ...visibility and presence through the introduction of bilingual or multilingual signposts on roads, streets, squares, and public buildings in towns and cities where a given linguistic group represents a significant population share. The article offers a comparative analysis of language policies of EU member states regarding enactment of official bilingual or multilingual signs in public space. Twenty EU member states have signed the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, while 17 members have ratified it. In addition, the Charter of Fundamental Rights, an integral party of the Lisbon Treaty, stipulates that language diversity is one of the fundamental values respected by the EU. Hence, this comparative research assesses various practices employed by member states in relation to the proclaimed values of multilingualism. Consequently, the paper depicts and compares different language policies that produce linguistic landscapes in EU member states. Finally, it tries to determine whether there is a convergence towards a common EU policy on bilingual and multilingual signs in public space.
This article compares the politics of history and positions in the EU of six ruling populist leaders and their parties (Fidesz, PiS, SDS, GERB, ANO and OĽaNO) from Central and Eastern European (CEE) ...EU member states. Through the comparison of leaders' biographies and longitudinal analysis of party electoral manifestos an overlap between two types of CEE populism and two types of mnemonic actors in the region is found. Radical right-wing populist parties (Fidesz, PiS and SDS) are more oriented towards national histories, memory wars against ex-communists and critical events for losing or gaining their national sovereignty (mnemonic warriors). Centrist populist parties (GERB, ANO and OĽaNO) largely ignore that kind of narrative and focus on anti-corruption or promises of managing the state more effectively (mnemonic abnegators). Radical right-wing populist parties are also more likely to challenge the Brussels elites by using examples from their national histories. Emphasis on national traumas, anti-communism and their leaders' vision of politics labelled here as combat tasks politics seems to be contributing to their Euroscepticism. Combat tasks politics, i.e. seeing politics as a constant battle against political enemies, underpins the Eurosceptic narratives of Kaczyński, Orbán and Janša-former dissidents who were politically socialised while challenging militarised communist regimes.
This paper analyzes changes in the Croatian party system in the 1990-2016 period by looking at trends in the ideological makeup of voters of the main center-right (HDZ) and center-left (SDP) parties. ...An assessment of changes in voter self-placement on a left-right scale has shown a gradual increase in the ideological distance among voters of these parties. Further, the paper detected a trend towards an increase in the share of self-declared far-right voters among HDZ voters and far-left voters among SDP voters. In addition, an analysis of categorical ideological identification has demonstrated that, on average, two thirds of HDZ voters were Christian Democrats, while two thirds of SDP voters were Social Democrats. However, among all Christian Democrats, an average of 55 percent voted for the HDZ, while just shy of 60 percent of Social Democrats voted for the SDP. Finally, a logistic regression analysis has confirmed the importance of the cultural dimension of voter behavior in Croatia. Religiosity levels, as well as left-right self-placement serve as rather good predictors of a vote for the HDZ and the SDP, with the model showing greater explanatory strength for HDZ voters. In conclusion, the observed trends in ideological characteristics of HDZ and SDP voters could serve as pointers of underlying shifts in patterns of party competition and offer clues to the increased instability of the Croatian party system following the 2015 and 2016 parliamentary elections.
Djeca u vremenu Vuksan-Ćusa, Bartul; Raos, Višeslav
Anali Hrvatskog politološkog društva,
12/2022, Letnik:
19, Številka:
1
Journal Article, Book Review
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Autori se u naknadnom komentaru osvrću na teorijske i metodološke nedostatke svoje ranije objavljene studije o dobi i biračkom ponašanju u Hrvatskoj. Na teorijskoj razini ističu nedovoljnu ...razrađenost konceptualnog okvira i izostanak smještanja studije u odnosu na druga relevantna istraživanja koja se bave političkom socijalizacijom, političkom identifikacijom i društveno-političkim rascjepima. Na metodološkoj razini ističu probleme nedovoljne transparentnosti u prezentaciji rezultata testova multikolinearnosti i faktorske analize te u koncipiranju međuodnosa, operacionalizaciji i mjerenju varijabli poput dobi, obrazovanja, autoritarnosti, konzervativizma i populizma. Skromno zaključujući kako njihov rad ipak pridonosi napretku razumijevanja odnosa dobi i biračkoga ponašanja, autori pozivaju na buduća longitudinalna istraživanja koja bi mogla više reći o eventualnoj promjeni u intenzitetu utjecaja rascjepa na dobne kohorte. Njihov znanstveni autodafe kojim priznaju nedovoljnu komparativnu utemeljenost prethodnog istraživanja, konceptualnu i empirijsku, sažet je u pluralizaciji odabrane naslovne metafore kojom se ti izgubljeni akademski dječaci vraćaju putu akademske zrelosti pa dijete u vremenu postaje djecom u vremenu.
In their later commentary, the authors refer to the theoretical and methodological shortcomings of their previously published study on age and voting behavior in Croatia. At the theoretical level, they point out the insufficient elaboration of the conceptual framework and the lack of proper placement of the study in relation to other relevant research dealing with political socialization, political identification, and socio-political cleavages. At the methodological level, they emphasize the problems of insufficient transparency in the presentation of the results of multi-collinearity tests and factor analysis, and in the clear conceptualization of mutual relationship, operationalization, and measurement of the variables such as age, education, authoritarianism, conservatism and populism. Concluding modestly that their work nevertheless contributes to the progress of understanding the relationship between age and voting behavior, the authors call for future longitudinal research that could convey more about the eventual change in the intensity of influence of cleavages on the age cohorts. Their scientific auto-da-fé, in which they confess insufficient comparative grounding of their prior study, both conceptual and empirical, is summed up in the pluralization of the chosen title metaphor. In this way, these academic lost boys return to the path of academic maturity, and a child in time becomes children in time.
Autor razmatra politički profil Alternative za Njemačku kako bi pridonio razumijevanju njezine pojave u političkom životu Njemačke. Analizom izbornih programa provjerava njezin položaj na osi ...lijevo-desno te stavove o europskim integracijama, nacionalizmu i multikulturalizmu, te o ekonomskoj politici i demokraciji. Multivarijantnom regresijskom analizom ispituje prediktivnu snagu konfesionalnih, dobnih, obrazovnih, migracijskih i ekonomskih obilježja izbornih okruga u objaš- njenju varijacije u postotku glasova. Istraživanjem biografskih obilježja članova vodstva stranke testira se pretpostavljena zajednička demografska i ideološka pozadina stranačke elite. Pokazalo se da Alternativa za Njemačku odudara od stavova drugih stranaka u gledanjima na Europsku uniju, nacionalizam, multikulturalizam i ekonomsku politiku, ali ne odskače značajno na osi lijevo-desno, kao ni prema stavovima o demokraciji. Za predikciju glasovanja za tu stranku najvažnijima su se pokazala regionalna (rascjep istok-zapad), dobna i ekonomska obilježja izbornih okruga. Biografska analiza stranačke elita otkriva visok postotak bivših članova njemačkih demokršćanskih stranaka, te prevlast starijih visokoobrazovanih muškaraca u njoj.
U članku se na temelju terenskoga anketnog istraživanja provedenog nakon predsjedničkih izbora 2019/2020, te uoči parlamentarnih izbora 2020. analizira odnos dobi i biračkog ponašanja u Hrvatskoj. ...Pri tome se rad smješta na sjecište između istraživačkih tradicija sociologije mladih i analize društvenih rascjepa i biračkoga ponašanja. Na temelju modela multinominalne logističke regresije testira se odnos prediktora izvedenih iz dimenzija: religija i etika, povijest, stranke, vrijednosti, povjerenje i socioekonomski status, te dobne skupine. Provedeno istraživanje pokazuje kako postoji podudarnost prediktivnih modela za parlamentarne i predsjedničke izbore. Nadalje, pokazuje se kako se biračko ponašanje u Hrvatskoj uvelike grupira u dvije dobne skupine, od kojih jednu čine oni između 18 i 46 godina, a drugu oni od 47 do 99. Mlađu skupinu karakteriziraju niže razine autoritarnosti, niža razina povjerenja u tradicionalne medije, te manje povjerenja u efikasnost izvršne vlasti. Obiteljsko naslijeđe partizanskog pokreta pojedinačno je najznačajnija varijabla, no značajno raste s dobi. Kod školskog vjeronauka primjetan je socijalizacijski efekt, te ga tako mlađe dobne skupine više prihvaćaju od starijih, premda značajnih razlika u religioznosti kao prediktoru dobnih skupina nema. Pored toga, nisu utvrđene statistički značajne razlike među kohortama na ljestvici liberalno-konzervativno. Zaključno se može reći kako rad pokazuje stanovito naziranje dobnoga jaza u biračkome ponašanju, poglavito s obzirom na temeljni društveni rascjep u Hrvatskoj, baziran na povijesno-identitetskim razlikama, koji kod mlađih naraštaja značajno blijedi.
U
radu se problematizira izborni uspjeh regionalističkih stranaka u Hrvatskoj i Srbiji. Članak ističe specifičnost regionalističkih stranaka i potrebu njihove zasebne klasifikacije u odnosu na ...etnoregionalističke i etničke stranke. Ova komparativna analiza prati nastanak i izborni uspjeh regionalističkih stranaka u hrvatskom i srpskom stranačkom sustavu tijekom četvrt stoljeća. Pri analizi razlika u uspjehu hrvatskih i srbijanskih regionalističkih stranaka, stavlja se naglasak na kontekstualni okvir (narav stranačkog natjecanja, izborni model), kao i na društvene čimbenike (etnički i vjerski sastav) te povijesne faktore (naslijeđe centralizacije, odnosno autonomije). Članak tvrdi kako je kombinacija kontekstualnih, društvenih i povijesnih čimbenika stvorila bolje preduvjete za razvoj regionalizma u hrvatskom slučaju te omogućila snažniji izborni uspjeh negoli u Srbiji.
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