Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of ...global forest loss over the period 2000-2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a(-1) forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a(-1)) compared to Africa (0.1% a(-1)), the Neotropics (0.1% a(-1)) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a(-1)). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance (P) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia (P = 0.16), moderately successful in the Neotropics (P = 0.72) and Africa (p = 0.83), but ineffective in Asia (P = 1). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per capita. Whilst tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs do reduce forest loss, widely varying performance suggests substantial opportunities for improved protection, particularly in Asia.
China's rapid industrialisation and urbanisation has led to poor air quality. The Chinese government have responded by introducing policies to reduce emissions and setting ambitious targets for ...ambient PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and O3 concentrations. Previous satellite and modelling studies indicate that concentrations of these pollutants have begun to decline within the last decade. However, prior to 2012, air quality data from ground-based monitoring stations were difficult to obtain, limited to a few locations in major cities, and often unreliable. Since then, a comprehensive monitoring network, with over 1000 stations across China has been established by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE). We use a three-year (2015-2017) dataset consisting of hourly PM2.5, O3, NO2 and SO2 concentrations obtained from the MEE, combined with similar data from Taiwan and Hong Kong. We find that at 53% and 59% of stations, PM2.5 and SO2 concentrations have decreased significantly, with median rates across all stations of −3.4 and −1.9 g m−3 year−1 respectively. At 50% of stations, O3 maximum daily 8 h mean (MDA8) concentrations have increased significantly, with median rates across all stations of 4.6 g m−3 year−1. It will be important to understand the relative contribution of changing anthropogenic emissions and meteorology to the changes in air pollution reported here.
Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of ...moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.
The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial ...period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.
Tropical montane forests (TMFs) are recognized for the provision of hydrological services and the protection of biodiversity, but their role in carbon storage is not well understood. We synthesized ...published observations (n = 94) of above-ground biomass (AGB) from forest inventory plots in TMFs (defined here as forests between 23.5° N and 23.5° S with elevations ≥ 1000 m a.s.l.). We found that mean (median) AGB in TMFs is 271 (254) t per hectare of land surface. We demonstrate that AGB declines moderately with both elevation and slope angle but that TMFs store substantial amounts of biomass, both at high elevations (up to 3500 m) and on steep slopes (slope angles of up to 40°). We combined remotely sensed data sets of forest cover with high resolution data of elevation to show that 75% of the global planimetric (horizontal) area of TMF are on steep slopes (slope angles greater than 27°). We used our remote sensed data sets to demonstrate that this prevalence of steep slopes results in the global land surface area of TMF (1.22 million km2) being 40% greater than the planimetric area that is the usual basis for reporting global land surface areas and remotely sensed data. Our study suggests that TMFs are likely to be a greater store of carbon than previously thought, highlighting the need for conservation of the remaining montane forests.
We completed a meta‐analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in ...annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was −12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business‐as‐usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.
Key Points
Deforestation of the Amazon likely to lead to reductions in regional rainfall
Current deforestation extent estimated to reduce annual rainfall across Amazon basin by 1.8%
By 2050, deforestation estimated to reduce annual rainfall by 8.1%, greater than natural variability
In the Scottish uplands, prescribed burning of moorland vegetation is widely practised either to boost gamebird numbers for recreational shooting or to improve livestock grazing. In recent years, ...this system of land management has become controversial due to concerns over the potential impacts on ecosystem services. However, there are limited data on the extent, distribution or frequency of burning and it is unclear whether there are long‐term trends in burning. Crucially, the extent of burning on peat soils is not well known.
We used a time series of Landsat imagery covering 7750 km2 of moorland in Eastern Scotland to detect annual variation in area burnt from 1985 to 2022. Burnt areas were detected using annual changes in Normalised Burn Ratio.
An accuracy evaluation conducted over eight sites covering 415 km2 using a combination of Google Earth imagery, and field studies suggested a user's accuracy of 90% and a producer's accuracy of 77%.
We estimate an average annual mean area burnt of 61 km2 with large interannual variability and no significant change in area burnt over the 38‐year study period. We estimate that 32% of burning (19 km2 year−1) occurred on deep peat soils with no reduction in burning on deep peat after the revision of national guidelines (the Muirburn Code) in 2017 recommended ceasing this practice.
We find that in Eastern Scotland there has been no significant change in moorland area burnt over the last four decades. The fractional area burnt that is on deep peat is a matter of management concern.
Muirburn is a traditional method of burning old‐growth heather to promote fresh growth. In a satellite study of Eastern Scotland over the past four decades, we found no significant change in the area of moorland burnt, with deep peat accounting for a large fraction of burn area throughout.
Natural forests in Vietnam have experienced rapid declines in the last 70 years, as a result of degradation from logging and conversion of natural forests to timber and rubber plantations. ...Degradation of natural forests leads to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, impacting the livelihoods of surrounding communities. Efforts to address ongoing loss of natural forests, through mechanisms such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), require an understanding of the links between forest degradation and the livelihoods of local communities, which have rarely been studied in Vietnam. We combined information from livelihood surveys, remote sensing and forest inventories around a protected natural forest area in North Central Vietnam. For forest-adjacent communities, we found natural forests contributed an average of 28% of total household income with plantation forests contributing an additional 15%. Although officially prohibited, logging contributed more than half of the total income derived from natural forests. Analysis of Landsat images over the period 1990 to 2014 combined with forest inventory data, demonstrates selective logging was leading to ongoing degradation of natural forests resulting in loss of 3.3 ± 0.8 Mg biomass ha−1 yr−1 across the protected area. This is equivalent to 1.5% yr−1 of total forest biomass, with rates as high as 3% yr−1 in degraded and easily accessible parts of the protected area. We estimate that preventing illegal logging would incur local opportunity costs of USD $4.10 ± 0.90 per Mg CO2, similar to previous estimates for tropical forest protected areas and substantially less than the opportunity costs in timber or agricultural concessions. Our analysis suggests activities to reduce forest degradation in protected areas are likely to be financially viable through Vietnam's REDD+ program.
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