A risk score for atrial fibrillation (AF) has been developed by the Framingham Heart Study and Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)-AF consortium. However, validation ...of these risk scores in an inner-city population is uncertain. Thus, a validation model was built using the Framingham Risk Score for AF and CHARGE-AF covariates. An in and outpatient electrocardiographic database was interrogated from 2000 to 2013 for the development of AF. Patients were included if their age was >45 and <95 years, had <10-year follow-up, if their initial electrocardiogram was without AF, had ≥2 electrocardiograms, and declared a race and/or ethnicity as non-Hispanic white, African-American, or Hispanic. For the Framingham Heart Study, 49,599 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 4,860 developed AF. Discrimination analysis using area under the curve (AUC) for original risk equations: non-Hispanic white AUC = 0.712 (95% confidence interval CI 0.694 to 0.731), African-American AUC = 0.733 (95% CI 0.716 to 0.751), and Hispanic AUC = 0.740 (95% CI 0.723 to 0.757). For the CHARGE-AF, 45,571 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 4,512 developed AF. Non-Hispanic white AUC = 0.673 (95% CI 0.652 to 0.694), African-American AUC = 0.706 (95% CI 0.685 to 0.727), and Hispanic AUC = 0.711 (95% CI 0.691 to 0.732). Calibration analysis showed qualitative similarities between cohorts. In conclusion, this is the first study to validate both the Framingham Heart Study and CHARGE-AF risk scores in both a Hispanic and African-American cohort. All models predicted AF well across all race and ethnic cohorts.
Abstract Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the association between SES and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is ...not clear. We examined whether SES predicts all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized with AF. This is a retrospective study of patients aged >18 years, admitted with a primary diagnosis of AF to Montefiore Medical Center between 2000 and 2010. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of survival adjusted for age, gender, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, prior myocardial infraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, and SES. SES was determined using the New York City Department of Health Standardized Score (a log composite score of household income, value of housing units, net rental income, household occupations, and educational level). The cohort was divided into quartiles based on SES-score, with Q4 the highest and Q1 the lowest SES score. There were 4,503 patients identified with a mean follow up of 4.5 years in the following SES quartiles: Q1 (n= 1,132), Q2 (n= 1,119), Q3 (n= 1,126), and Q4 (n= 1,126). The unadjusted mortality varied across quartiles (Q1-Q4), 54%, 58%, 56%, and 59%, respectively (p= 0.004). After controlling for other variables in the multivariable analysis, patients with the lowest SES (Q1) had a significantly higher mortality than patients in the quartile with the highest (Q4) SES, (OR 1.3, CI: 1.1-1.5). In conclusion, patients admitted to the hospital with AF have varying mortality based on their socioeconomic status. After controlling for comorbidities, patients with AF and lower SES scores had higher mortality. Further research studies are warranted to study this risk of increased mortality in AF population.
Low-flow low-gradient aortic stenosis with normal ejection fraction (LFLGNEF AS) is a newly characterized poorly understood entity within the AS spectrum. Whether LFLGNEF AS has a worse prognosis ...than typical AS remains controversial. We retrospectively identified 4,546 individual patients with any type of AS on echocardiogram from 2003 through 2013 and categorized them into 5 cohorts: (1) mild AS, (2) moderate AS, (3) severe AS, (4) LFLGNEF AS (ejection fraction ≥55%), and (5) low-flow low-gradient low ejection fraction AS (LFLGLEF AS; ejection fraction <55%). Survival analysis was used to compare outcomes of LFLGNEF AS with those of the other cohorts. AS was classified as mild in 591 patients, moderate in 2,358, severe in 500, LFLGNEF in 776, and LFLGLEF in 318. The study group had a mean age of 80.5 years, 61% were women, and the patients were followed for 2.26 ± 1.16 years. Among subjects managed without valve replacement, total mortality for the LFLGNEF AS group was lower compared with that in both the severe AS and the LFLGLEF AS groups (p = 0.007 and p <0.001, respectively). The prognosis for LFLGNEF AS was worse, however, compared with those with mild and moderate AS (p <0.001, both). In conclusion, no survival differences were found among AS types among those who received valve replacement. The survival rate in LFLGNEF is better than that in severe AS or LFLGLEF but is worse than that in mild or moderate AS. Valve replacement seems reasonable to pursue in select patients.
Early repolarization associated with sudden cardiac death is based on the presence of >1-mm J-point elevations in inferior and/or lateral leads with horizontal and/or downsloping ST segments. ...Automated electrocardiographic readings of early repolarization (AER) obtained in clinical practice, in contrast, are defined by ST-segment elevation in addition to J-point elevation. Nonetheless, such automated readings may cause alarm. We therefore assessed the prevalence and prognostic significance of AER in 211,920 patients aged 18 to 75 years. The study was performed at a tertiary medical center serving a racially diverse urban population with a large proportion of Hispanics (43%). The first recorded electrocardiogram of each individual from 2000 to 2012 was included. Patients with ventricular paced rhythm or acute coronary syndrome at the time of acquisition were excluded from the analysis. All automated electrocardiographic interpretations were reviewed for accuracy by a board-certified cardiologist. The primary end point was death during a median follow-up of 8.0 ± 2.6 years. AER was present in 3,450 subjects (1.6%). The prevalence varied significantly with race (African-Americans 2.2%, Hispanics 1.5%, and non-Hispanic whites 0.9%, p <0.01) and gender (male 2.4% vs female 0.6%, p <0.001). In a Cox proportional hazards model controlling for age, smoking status, heart rate, QTc, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, and coronary artery disease, there was no significant difference in mortality regardless of race or gender (relative risk 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.07). This was true even if J waves were present. In conclusion, AER was not associated with an increased risk of death, regardless of race or gender, and should not trigger additional diagnostic testing.
Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is common after cavotricuspid isthmus (CTI) dependent atrial flutter (AFL) ablation. Risk factors for the development of AF post ablation are not well understood. ...The purpose of this study was to identify patients undergoing CTI ablation for AFL most likely to develop AF.
Retrospective chart review identified 114 consecutive patients without a history of AF or prior cardiac surgery who underwent typical CTI dependent AFL ablation between December 2013 to November 2018, who also had a complete preoperative transthoracic echocardiogram, and at least 1 year of follow-up at our medical center. We evaluated baseline characteristics, electrophysiology study (EPS) data and echocardiographic data for incidence of AF within 3 years.
Incident AF was identified in 46 patients (40%) during 600 + 405 days follow-up. Left atrial volume index (LAVI) was significantly greater in patients who developed AF compared to those that did not (37 ± 12.2 ml/m
vs 30 ± 13.4 ml/m
, p=.004), with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve based on the LAVI of 0.7 (p = 0.004). Kaplan-Meier estimated incidence of AF was significantly greater in patients with LAVI ≥ 30 ml/m
than LAVI < 30 ml/m
(66% vs 27%, p=0.004). Risk of incident AF in patients with LAVI > 40 mL/m2 was similar to that of LAVI 30-40 ml/m2 (67% vs 63%, respectively, p=0.97). In multivariable analysis LAVI remained the sole independent predictor of incidence AF after CTI AFL ablation.
LAVI ≥ 30 ml/m
is associated with significantly increased risk of incident AF following CTI ablation for typical AFL. HATCH <2 was notably not an independent predictor of AF after AFL ablation.
When stratified by race/ethnicity, there was a stronger association between increasing BMI category and AF in Non-Hispanic Whites compared to African Americans (Figure 1).
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in worldwide morbidity at unprecedented scale. Troponin elevation is a frequent laboratory finding in hospitalized patients with the disease, and may reflect direct ...vascular injury or non-specific supply-demand imbalance. In this work, we assessed the correlation between different ranges of Troponin elevation, Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities, and mortality.
We retrospectively studied 204 consecutive patients hospitalized at NYU Langone Health with COVID-19. Serial ECG tracings were evaluated in conjunction with laboratory data including Troponin. Mortality was analyzed in respect to the degree of Troponin elevation and the presence of ECG changes including ST elevation, ST depression or T wave inversion.
Mortality increased in parallel with increase in Troponin elevation groups and reached 60% when Troponin was >1 ng/ml. In patients with mild Troponin rise (0.05-1.00 ng/ml) the presence of ECG abnormality and particularly T wave inversions resulted in significantly greater mortality.
ECG repolarization abnormalities may represent a marker of clinical severity in patients with mild elevation in Troponin values. This finding can be used to enhance risk stratification in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.
Abstract Background PR interval prolongation on electrocardiogram (ECG) increases the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Non-Hispanic Whites are at higher risk of AF compared to African Americans and ...Hispanics. However, it remains unknown if prolongation of the PR interval for the development of AF varies by race/ethnicity. Therefore, we determined whether race affects the PR interval length's ability to predict AF and if the commonly used criterion of 200 ms in AF prediction models can continue to be used for non-White cohorts. Methods This is a retrospective epidemiological study of consecutive inpatient and outpatients. An ECG database was initially interrogated. Patients were included if their initial ECG demonstrated sinus rhythm and had two or more electrocardiograms and declared a race and/or ethnicity as non-Hispanic White, African American or Hispanic. Development of AF was stratified by race/ethnicity along varying PR intervals. Cox models controlled for age, gender, race/ethnicity, systolic blood pressure, BMI, QRS, QTc, heart rate, murmur, treatment for hypertension, heart failure and use of AV nodal blocking agents to assess PR interval's predictive ability for development of AF. Results 50,870 patients met inclusion criteria of which 5,199 developed AF over 3.72 mean years of follow-up. When the PR interval was separated by quantile, prolongation of the PR interval to predict AF first became significant in Hispanic and African Americans at the 92.5th quantile of 196–201 ms (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.09–1.86, p=0.01; HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07–1.64, p=0.01, respectively) then in non-Hispanic Whites at the 95th quantile at 203–212 ms (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.24–1.53, p=0.04). For those with a PR interval above 200 ms, African Americans had a lower risk than non-Hispanic Whites to develop AF (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64–0.95, p=0.012), however, no significant difference was demonstrated in Hispanics. Conclusions This is the first study to validate a PR interval value of 200 ms as a criterion in African Americans and Hispanics for the development of AF. However, a value of 200 ms may be less sensitive as a predictive measure for the development of AF in African Americans compared to non-Hispanic Whites.
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