Colorectal adenoma are precursor lesions on the pathway to cancer. Their removal in screening colonoscopies has markedly reduced rates of cancer incidence and death. Generic models of adenoma growth ...and transition to cancer can guide the implementation of screening strategies. But adenoma shape has rarely featured as a relevant risk factor. Against this backdrop we aim to demonstrate that shape influences growth dynamics and cancer risk. Stochastic cell-based models are applied to a data set of 197,347 Bavarian outpatients who had colonoscopies from 2006-2009, 50,649 patients were reported with adenoma and 296 patients had cancer. For multi-stage clonal expansion (MSCE) models with up to three initiating stages parameters were estimated by fits to data sets of all shapes combined, and of sessile (70% of all adenoma), peduncular (17%) and flat (13%) adenoma separately for both sexes. Pertinent features of adenoma growth present themselves in contrast to previous assumptions. Stem cells with initial molecular changes residing in early adenoma predominantly multiply within two-dimensional structures such as crypts. For these cells mutation and division rates decrease with age. The absolute number of initiated cells in an adenoma of size 1 cm is small around 103, related to all bulk cells they constitute a share of about 10-5. The notion of very few proliferating stem cells with age-decreasing division rates is supported by cell marker experiments. The probability for adenoma transiting to cancer increases with squared linear size and shows a shape dependence. Compared to peduncular and flat adenoma, it is twice as high for sessile adenoma of the same size. We present a simple mathematical expression for the hazard ratio of interval cancers which provides a mechanistic understanding of this important quality indicator. We conclude that adenoma shape deserves closer consideration in screening strategies and as risk factor for transition to cancer.
Abstract
Mathematical models are able to reflect biological processes and to capture epidemiologic data. Thus, they may help elucidate roles of risk factors in disease progression. We propose to ...account for smoking, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in a previously published process-oriented model that describes the development of atherosclerotic lesions resulting in myocardial infarction (MI). The model is sex-specific and incorporates individual heterogeneity. It was applied to population-based individual risk factors and MI rates (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) study) together with subclinical atherosclerotic lesion data (Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study). Different model variants were evaluated, testing the association of risk factors with different disease processes. Best fits were obtained for smoking affecting a late-stage disease process, suggesting a thrombogenic role. Hypertension was mainly related to complicated, vulnerable lesions. Dyslipidemia was consistent with increasing the number of initial lesions. By accounting for heterogeneity, individual hazard ratios differ from the population average. The mean individual hazard ratio for smoking was twice the population-based hazard ratio for men and even more for women. Atherosclerotic lesion progression and MI incidence data can be related in a mathematical model to illuminate how risk factors affect different phases of this pathological process.
A
bstract
Low energy effects induced by heavy extra degrees of freedom are suppressed by powers of the large mass scale, thus preserving, if sufficiently heavy, the successes of the Standard Model in ...describing low energy phenomena. However, as is well known, heavy right-handed neutrinos may play an important role in low energy phenomenology as an explanation of the smallness of neutrino masses. We consider in this paper an extension of the Standard Model by heavy right-handed neutrinos and heavy Higgs doublets and we show, using a renormalization group approach, that this model can simultaneously provide an explanation for the small neutrino masses and for the mild hierarchy observed between the atmospheric and the solar mass splittings, even when the extra degrees of freedom are very heavy. We analyze the necessary conditions to reproduce the oscillation parameters and we discuss possible experimental signatures of this model.
Heterogeneity in coronary heart disease risk Simonetto, Cristoforo; Rospleszcz, Susanne; Kaiser, Jan Christian ...
Scientific reports,
06/2022, Letnik:
12, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Abstract
There is large inter-individual heterogeneity in risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Risk factors traditionally used in primary risk assessment only partially explain this heterogeneity. ...Residual, unobserved heterogeneity leads to age-related attenuation of hazard rates and underestimation of hazard ratios. Its magnitude is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to estimate a lower and an approximate upper bound. Heterogeneity was parametrized by a log-normal distribution with shape parameter σ. Analysis was based on published data. From concordance indices of studies including traditional risk factors and additional diagnostic imaging data, we calculated the part of heterogeneity explained by imaging data. For traditional risk assessment, this part typically remains unexplained, thus constituting a lower bound on unobserved heterogeneity. Next, the potential impact of heterogeneity on CHD hazard rates in several large countries was investigated. CHD rates increase with age but the increase attenuates with age. Presuming this attenuation to be largely caused by heterogeneity, an approximate upper bound on σ was derived. Taking together both bounds, unobserved heterogeneity in studies without imaging information can be described by a shape parameter in the range σ = 1–2. It substantially contributes to observed age-dependences of hazard ratios and may lead to underestimation of hazard ratios by a factor of about two. Therefore, analysis of studies for primary CHD risk assessment should account for unobserved heterogeneity.
•Heart exposure is a major cardiac risk factor in left-sided breast cancer survivors.•Deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) significantly reduces the exposure of the heart.•Patients with high ...cardiovascular risk and favourable tumour prognosis benefit most.•Risk modelling showed that age has only minor impact on the related cardiac risk.
Aim of the current comparative modelling study was to estimate the individual radiation-induced risk for death of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) under free breathing (FB) and deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) in a real-world population.
Eighty-nine patients with left-sided early breast cancer were enrolled in the prospective SAVE-HEART study. For each patient three-dimensional conformal treatment plans were created in FB and DIBH and corresponding radiation-induced risks of IHD mortality were estimated based on expected survival, individual IHD risk factors and the relative radiation-induced risk.
With the use of DIBH, mean heart doses were reduced by 35% (interquartile range: 23–46%) as compared to FB. Mean expected years of life lost (YLL) due to radiation-induced IHD mortality were 0.11 years in FB, and 0.07 years in DIBH. YLL were remarkably independent of age at treatment in patients with a favourable tumour prognosis. DIBH led to more pronounced reductions in YLL in patients with high baseline risk (0.08 years for upper vs 0.02 years for lower quartile), with favourable tumour prognosis (0.05 years for patients without vs 0.02 years for those with lymph-node involvement), and in patients with high mean heart doses in FB (0.09 years for doses >3 Gy vs 0.02 years for doses <1.5 Gy).
Ideally, the DIBH technique should be offered to all patients with left-sided breast cancer. However, highest benefits are expected for patients with a favourable tumour prognosis, high mean heart dose or high baseline IHD risk, independent of their age.
Analyzing epidemiological data with simplified mathematical models of disease development provides a link between the time‐course of incidence and the underlying biological processes. Here we point ...out that considerable modeling flexibility is gained if the model is solved by simulation only. To this aim, a model of atherosclerosis is proposed: a Markov Chain with continuous state space which represents the coronary artery intimal surface area involved with atherosclerotic lesions of increasing severity. Myocardial infarction rates are assumed to be proportional to the area of most severe lesions. The model can be fitted simultaneously to infarction incidence rates observed in the KORA registry, and to the age‐dependent prevalence and extent of atherosclerotic lesions in the PDAY study. Moreover, the simulation approach allows for non‐linear transition rates, and to consider at the same time randomness and inter‐individual heterogeneity. Interestingly, the fit revealed significant age dependence of parameters in females around the age of menopause, qualitatively reproducing the known vascular effects of female sex hormones. For males, the incidence curve flattens for higher ages. According to the model, frailty explains this flattening only partially, and saturation of the disease process plays also an important role. This study shows the feasibility of simulating subclinical and epidemiological data with the same mathematical model. The approach is very general and may be extended to investigate the effects of risk factors or interventions. Moreover, it offers an interface to integrate quantitative individual health data as assessed, for example, by imaging.
Acute coronary events (ACEs) are considered the most important side effect of radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer, but underlying mechanisms still have to be identified. Process-oriented models ...mathematically describe the development of disease and provide a link between mechanisms and subsequent risk. Here, this link is exploited to learn about the underlying mechanisms from the observed age-time patterns of ACE risk.
A process-oriented model of atherosclerosis and subsequent ACEs was applied to a contemporary breast cancer cohort of 810 patients with measurements of coronary artery calcification. Patients with prior ischemic heart disease were excluded. The process-oriented model describes disease development as a series of different stages. Different variants of the model were fitted to the data. In each variant, one stage was assumed to be accelerated in relation to mean heart dose.
During a mean follow-up of 9.1 years, 25 ACEs occurred. The model reproduced the prevalence and associated risk of coronary calcifications. Mean heart dose significantly improved the fit only when implemented as affecting a late stage of atherosclerosis on already-existing complicated lesions (achieving P = .007). This can be understood by atherosclerosis being a slowly progressing disease. Therefore, an increase in ACEs a few years after RT requires advanced atherosclerosis at the time of RT.
Risk of ACE increases within a few years in patients with advanced atherosclerosis at RT. Therefore, patients should be assessed for cardiovascular risk, and older patients need to be considered for heart-sparing techniques.
Abstract
KRAS mutations of lung adenocarcinoma (LADC) are associated with smoking but little is known on other exposure-oncogene associations. Hypothesizing that different inciting agents may cause ...different driver mutations, we aimed to identify distinct molecular pathways to LADC, applying two entirely different approaches. First, we examined clinicopathologic features and genomic signatures of environmental exposures in the large LADC Campbell data set. Second, we designed a molecular mechanistic risk model of LADC (M3LADC) that links environmental exposure to incidence risk by mathematically emulating the disease process. This model was applied to incidence data of Japanese atom-bomb survivors which contains information on radiation and smoking exposure. Grouping the clinical data by driver mutations revealed two main distinct molecular pathways to LADC: one unique to transmembrane receptor-mutant patients that displayed robust signatures of radiation exposure and one shared between submembrane transducer-mutant patients and patients with no evident driver mutation that carried the signature of smoking. Consistently, best fit of the incidence data was achieved with a M3LADC with two pathways: in one LADC risk increased with radiation exposure and in the other with cigarette consumption. We conclude there are two main molecular pathways to LADC associated with different environmental exposures. Future molecular measurements in lung cancer tissue of atom-bomb survivors may allow to further test quantitatively the M3LADC-predicted link of radiation to transmembrane receptor mutations. Moreover, the developed molecular mechanistic model showed that for low doses, as relevant e.g. for medical imaging, smokers have the same radiation risk compared with never smokers.
We developed the first mechanistic model for risk prediction of LADC stratified by molecular driver pathway. Radiation is mainly acting in the transmembrane receptor-mutant pathway, whereas smoking is acting in the transducer-mutant pathway with no interaction.
Abstract
This study aims to identify key anatomic features that govern the individual variability of lung doses from breast-cancer radiotherapy. 3D conformal, intensity-modulated and hybrid ...techniques with 50.4 Gy whole-breast dose were planned for 128 patients. From their CT images, 17 anatomic measures were assessed and tested as predictors for lung dose-volume characteristics. Tangential techniques yielded mean ipsilateral lung doses in the range of 3–11 Gy. This inter-patient variability was explained to almost 40% by central lung distance, and to almost 60% if this measure was complemented by midplane lung width and maximum heart distance. Also the variability in further dose-volume metrics such as volume fractions receiving 5, 20 or 40 Gy could be largely explained by the anatomy. Multi-field intensity-modulated radiotherapy reduced high-exposed lung volumes, but resulted in higher mean ipsilateral lung doses and larger low-dose burden. Contralateral lung doses ranged from 0.3 to 1 Gy. The results highlight that there are large differences in lung doses among breast-cancer patients. Most of this inter-individual variability can be explained by a few anatomic features. The results will be implemented in a dedicated software tool to provide personalized estimates of long-term health risks related to breast-cancer radiotherapy. The results may also be used to identify favourable as well as problematic anatomies, and serve as a quick quantitative benchmark for individual treatment plans.
The circulatory system distributes nutrients, signaling molecules, and immune cells to vital organs and soft tissues. Epidemiological, animal, and in vitro cellular mechanistic studies have ...highlighted that exposure to ionizing radiation (IR) can induce molecular changes in cellular and subcellular milieus leading to long-term health impacts, particularly on the circulatory system. Although the mechanisms for the pathologies are not fully elucidated, endothelial dysfunction is proven to be a critical event via radiation-induced oxidative stress mediators. To delineate connectivities of events specifically to cardiovascular disease (CVD) initiation and progression, the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) approach was used with consultation from field experts. AOPs are a means to organize information around a disease of interest to a regulatory question. An AOP begins with a molecular initiating event and ends in an adverse outcome via sequential linkages of key event relationships that are supported by evidence in the form of the modified Bradford-Hill criteria. Detailed guidelines on building AOPs are provided by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) AOP program. Here, we report on the questions and discussions needed to develop an AOP for CVD resulting from IR exposure. A recent workshop jointly organized by the MELODI (Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative) and the ALLIANCE (European Radioecology Alliance) associations brought together experts from the OECD to present the AOP approach and tools with examples from the toxicology field. As part of this workshop, four working groups were formed to discuss the identification of adverse outcomes relevant to radiation exposures and development of potential AOPs, one of which was focused on IR-induced cardiovascular effects. Each working group comprised subject matter experts and radiation researchers interested in the specific disease area and included an AOP coach.
The CVD working group identified the critical questions of interest for AOP development, including the exposure scenario that would inform the evidence, the mechanisms of toxicity, the initiating event, intermediate key events/relationships, and the type of data currently available. This commentary describes the four-day discussion of the CVD working group, its outcomes, and demonstrates how collaboration and expert consultation is vital to informing AOP construction.
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