There is limited evidence to support the use of customised centile charts to identify those at risk of stillbirth and infant death at term. We sought to determine birth weight thresholds at which ...mortality and morbidity increased and the predictive ability of noncustomised (accounting for gestational age and sex) and partially customised centiles (additionally accounting for maternal height and parity) to identify fetuses at risk.
This is a population-based linkage study of 979,912 term singleton pregnancies in Scotland, United Kingdom, between 1992 and 2010. The main exposures were noncustomised and partially customised birth weight centiles. The primary outcomes were infant death, stillbirth, overall mortality (infant and stillbirth), Apgar score <7 at 5 min, and admission to the neonatal unit. Optimal thresholds that predicted outcomes for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles were calculated. Prediction of mortality between non- and partially customised birth weight centiles was compared using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and net reclassification index (NRI).
Birth weight ≤25th centile was associated with higher risk for all mortality and morbidity outcomes. For stillbirth, low Apgar score, and neonatal unit admission, risk also increased from the 85th centile. Similar patterns and magnitude of associations were observed for both non- and partially customised birth weight centiles. Partially customised birth weight centiles did not improve the discrimination of mortality (AUROC 0.61 95%CI 0.60, 0.62) compared with noncustomised birth weight centiles (AUROC 0.62 95%CI 0.60, 0.63) and slightly underperformed in reclassifying pregnancies to different risk categories for both fatal and non-fatal adverse outcomes (NRI -0.027 95% CI -0.039, -0.016, p < 0.001). We were unable to fully customise centile charts because we lacked data on maternal weight and ethnicity. Additional analyses in an independent UK cohort (n = 10,515) suggested that lack of data on ethnicity in this population (in which national statistics show 98% are white British) and maternal weight would have misclassified ~15% of the large-for-gestation fetuses.
At term, birth weight remains strongly associated with the risk of stillbirth and infant death and neonatal morbidity. Partial customisation does not improve prediction performance. Consideration of early term delivery or closer surveillance for those with a predicted birth weight ≤25th or ≥85th centile may reduce adverse outcomes. Replication of the analysis with fully customised centiles accounting for ethnicity is warranted.
Summary Background Fetal growth restriction is a major determinant of adverse perinatal outcome. Screening procedures for fetal growth restriction need to identify small babies and then differentiate ...between those that are healthy and those that are pathologically small. We sought to determine the diagnostic effectiveness of universal ultrasonic fetal biometry in the third trimester as a screening test for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, and whether the risk of morbidity associated with being small differed in the presence or absence of ultrasonic markers of fetal growth restriction. Methods The Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study was a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women with a viable singleton pregnancy at the time of the dating ultrasound scan. Women participating had clinically indicated ultrasonography in the third trimester as per routine clinical care and these results were reported as usual (selective ultrasonography). Additionally, all participants had research ultrasonography, including fetal biometry at 28 and 36 weeks' gestational age. These results were not made available to participants or treating clinicians (universal ultrasonography). We regarded SGA as a birthweight of less than the 10th percentile for gestational age and screen positive for SGA an ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight of less than the 10th percentile for gestational age. Markers of fetal growth restriction included biometric ratios, utero-placental Doppler, and fetal growth velocity. We assessed outcomes for consenting participants who attended research scans and had a livebirth at the Rosie Hospital (Cambridge, UK) after the 28 weeks' research scan. Findings Between Jan 14, 2008, and July 31, 2012, 4512 women provided written informed consent of whom 3977 (88%) were eligible for analysis. Sensitivity for detection of SGA infants was 20% (95% CI 15–24; 69 of 352 fetuses) for selective ultrasonography and 57% (51–62; 199 of 352 fetuses) for universal ultrasonography (relative sensitivity 2·9, 95% CI 2·4–3·5, p<0·0001). Of the 3977 fetuses, 562 (14·1%) were identified by universal ultrasonography with an estimated fetal weight of less than the 10th percentile and were at an increased risk of neonatal morbidity (relative risk RR 1·60, 95% CI 1·22–2·09, p=0·0012). However, estimated fetal weight of less than the 10th percentile was only associated with the risk of neonatal morbidity (pinteraction =0·005) if the fetal abdominal circumference growth velocity was in the lowest decile (RR 3·9, 95% CI 1·9–8·1, p=0·0001). 172 (4%) of 3977 pregnancies had both an estimated fetal weight of less than the 10th percentile and abdominal circumference growth velocity in the lowest decile, and had a relative risk of delivering an SGA infant with neonatal morbidity of 17·6 (9·2–34·0, p<0·0001). Interpretation Screening of nulliparous women with universal third trimester fetal biometry roughly tripled detection of SGA infants. Combined analysis of fetal biometry and fetal growth velocity identified a subset of SGA fetuses that were at increased risk of neonatal morbidity. Funding National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Sands, and GE Healthcare.
The C statistic is a commonly reported measure of screening test performance. Optimistic estimation of the C statistic is a frequent problem because of overfitting of statistical models in small data ...sets, and methods exist to correct for this issue. However, many studies do not use such methods, and those that do correct for optimism use diverse methods, some of which are known to be biased. We used clinical data sets (United Kingdom Down syndrome screening data from Glasgow (1991-2003), Edinburgh (1999-2003), and Cambridge (1990-2006), as well as Scottish national pregnancy discharge data (2004-2007)) to evaluate different approaches to adjustment for optimism. We found that sample splitting, cross-validation without replication, and leave-1-out cross-validation produced optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic that were biased and/or associated with greater absolute error than other available methods. Cross-validation with replication, bootstrapping, and a new method (leave-pair-out cross-validation) all generated unbiased optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic and had similar absolute errors in the clinical data set. Larger simulation studies confirmed that all 3 methods performed similarly with 10 or more events per variable, or when the C statistic was 0.9 or greater. However, with lower events per variable or lower C statistics, bootstrapping tended to be optimistic but with lower absolute and mean squared errors than both methods of cross-validation.
Summary Background The Apgar score has been used worldwide as an index of early neonatal condition for more than 60 years. With advances in health-care service provision, neonatal resuscitation, and ...infant care, its present relevance is unclear. The aim of the study was to establish the strength of the relation between Apgar score at 5 min and the risk of neonatal and infant mortality, subdivided by specific causes. Methods We linked routine discharge and mortality data for all births in Scotland, UK between 1992 and 2010. We restricted our analyses to singleton livebirths, in women aged over 10 years, with a gestational age at delivery between 22 and 44 weeks, and excluded deaths due to congenital anomalies or isoimmunisation. We calculated the relative risks (RRs) of neonatal and infant death of neonates with low (0–3) and intermediate (4–6) Apgar scores at 5 min referent to neonates with normal Apgar score (7–10) using binomial log-linear modelling with adjustment for confounders. Analyses were stratified by gestational age at birth because it was a significant effect modifier. Missing covariate data were imputed. Findings Complete data were available for 1 029 207 eligible livebirths. Across all gestational strata, low Apgar score at 5 min was associated with an increased risk of neonatal and infant death. However, the strength of the association (adjusted RR, 95% CI referent to Apgar 7–10) was strongest at term (p<0·0001). A low Apgar (0–3) was associated with an adjusted RR of 359·4 (95% CI 277·3–465·9) for early neonatal death, 30·5 (18·0–51·6) for late neonatal death, and 50·2 (42·8–59·0) for infant death. We noted similar associations of a lower magnitude for intermediate Apgar (4–6). The strongest associations were for deaths attributed to anoxia and low Apgar (0–3) for term infants (RR 961·7, 95% CI 681·3–1357·5) and preterm infants (141·7, 90·1–222·8). No association between Apgar score at 5 min and the risk of sudden infant death syndrome was noted at any gestational age (RR 0·6, 95% CI 0·1–4·6 at term; 1·2, 0·3–4·8 at preterm). Interpretation Low Apgar score at 5 min was strongly associated with the risk of neonatal and infant death. Our findings support its continued usefulness in contemporary practice. Funding None.
Summary Background Stillbirth rates in high-income countries have shown little or no improvement over the past two decades. Prevention strategies that target risk factors could be important in rate ...reduction. This systematic review and meta-analysis was done to identify priority areas for stillbirth prevention relevant to those countries. Methods Population-based studies addressing risk factors for stillbirth were identified through database searches. The factors most frequently reported were identified and selected according to whether they could potentially be reduced through lifestyle or medical intervention. The numbers attributable to modifiable risk factors were calculated from data relating to the five high-income countries with the highest numbers of stillbirths and where all the data required for analysis were available. Odds ratios were calculated for selected risk factors, from which population-attributable risk (PAR) values were calculated. Findings Of 6963 studies initially identified, 96 population-based studies were included. Maternal overweight and obesity (body-mass index >25 kg/m2 ) was the highest ranking modifiable risk factor, with PARs of 8–18% across the five countries and contributing to around 8000 stillbirths (≥22 weeks' gestation) annually across all high-income countries. Advanced maternal age (>35 years) and maternal smoking yielded PARs of 7–11% and 4–7%, respectively, and each year contribute to more than 4200 and 2800 stillbirths, respectively, across all high-income countries. In disadvantaged populations maternal smoking could contribute to 20% of stillbirths. Primiparity contributes to around 15% of stillbirths. Of the pregnancy disorders, small size for gestational age and abruption are the highest PARs (23% and 15%, respectively), which highlights the notable role of placental pathology in stillbirth. Pre-existing diabetes and hypertension remain important contributors to stillbirth in such countries. Interpretation The raising of awareness and implementation of effective interventions for modifiable risk factors, such as overweight, obesity, maternal age, and smoking, are priorities for stillbirth prevention in high-income countries. Funding The Stillbirth Foundation Australia, the Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra, Australia, and the Mater Foundation, Brisbane, Australia.
In this Perspective, Gordon Smith discusses the findings of Miller et al, and the balance of risks and benefits associated with different modes of delivery.
The placenta is the interface between mother and fetus and inadequate function contributes to short and long-term ill-health. The placenta is absent from most large-scale RNA-Seq datasets. We ...therefore analyze long and small RNAs (~101 and 20 million reads per sample respectively) from 302 human placentas, including 94 cases of preeclampsia (PE) and 56 cases of fetal growth restriction (FGR). The placental transcriptome has the seventh lowest complexity of 50 human tissues: 271 genes account for 50% of all reads. We identify multiple circular RNAs and validate 6 of these by Sanger sequencing across the back-splice junction. Using large-scale mass spectrometry datasets, we find strong evidence of peptides produced by translation of two circular RNAs. We also identify novel piRNAs which are clustered on Chr1 and Chr14. PE and FGR are associated with multiple and overlapping differences in mRNA, lincRNA and circRNA but fewer consistent differences in small RNAs. Of the three protein coding genes differentially expressed in both PE and FGR, one encodes a secreted protein FSTL3 (follistatin-like 3). Elevated serum levels of FSTL3 in pregnant women are predictive of subsequent PE and FGR. To aid visualization of our placenta transcriptome data, we develop a web application ( https://www.obgyn.cam.ac.uk/placentome/ ).
The risk of antepartum stillbirth at term is higher among women 35 years of age or older than among younger women. Labor induction may reduce the risk of stillbirth, but it also may increase the risk ...of cesarean delivery, which already is common in this older age group.
We conducted a randomized, controlled trial involving primigravid women who were 35 years of age or older. Women were randomly assigned to labor induction between 39 weeks 0 days and 39 weeks 6 days of gestation or to expectant management (i.e., waiting until the spontaneous onset of labor or until the development of a medical problem that mandated induction). The primary outcome was cesarean delivery. The trial was not designed or powered to assess the effects of labor induction on stillbirth.
A total of 619 women underwent randomization. In an intention-to-treat analysis, there were no significant between-group differences in the percentage of women who underwent a cesarean section (98 of 304 women in the induction group 32% and 103 of 314 women in the expectant-management group 33%; relative risk, 0.99; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.87 to 1.14) or in the percentage of women who had a vaginal delivery with the use of forceps or vacuum (115 of 304 women 38% and 104 of 314 women 33%, respectively; relative risk, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.77). There were no maternal or infant deaths and no significant between-group differences in the women's experience of childbirth or in the frequency of adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes.
Among women of advanced maternal age, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation, as compared with expectant management, had no significant effect on the rate of cesarean section and no adverse short-term effects on maternal or neonatal outcomes. (Funded by the Research for Patient Benefit Programme of the National Institute for Health Research; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN11517275.).
To determine whether fetal overgrowth precedes the diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to quantify the interrelationships among fetal overgrowth, GDM, and maternal obesity.
We ...conducted a prospective cohort study of unselected nulliparous women and performed ultrasonic measurement of the fetal abdominal circumference (AC) and head circumference (HC) at 20 and 28 weeks of gestational age (wkGA). Exposures were diagnosis of GDM ≥28 wkGA and maternal obesity. The risk of AC >90th and HC-to-AC ratio <10th percentile was modeled using log-binomial regression, adjusted for maternal characteristics.
Of 4,069 women, 171 (4.2%) were diagnosed with GDM at ≥28 wkGA. There was no association between fetal biometry at 20 wkGA and subsequent maternal diagnosis of GDM. However, at 28 wkGA, there was an increased risk of AC >90th percentile (adjusted relative risk 2.05 95% CI 1.37-3.07) and HC-to-AC ratio <10th percentile (1.97 1.30-2.99). Maternal obesity showed similar associations at 28 wkGA (2.04 1.62-2.56 and 1.46 1.12-1.90, respectively). The combination of GDM and obesity was associated with an approximately fivefold risk of AC >90th (4.52 2.98-6.85) and approximately threefold risk of HC-to-AC ratio <10th percentile (2.80 1.64-4.78) at 28 wkGA. Fetal AC >90th percentile at 28 weeks was associated with an approximately fourfold risk of being large for gestational age at birth.
Diagnosis of GDM is preceded by excessive growth of the fetal AC between 20 and 28 wkGA, and its effects on fetal growth are additive with the effects of maternal obesity.
Despite the relative ease with which breech presentation can be identified through ultrasound screening, the assessment of foetal presentation at term is often based on clinical examination only. Due ...to limitations in this approach, many women present in labour with an undiagnosed breech presentation, with increased risk of foetal morbidity and mortality. This study sought to determine the cost effectiveness of universal ultrasound scanning for breech presentation near term (36 weeks of gestational age wkGA) in nulliparous women.
The Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study was a prospective cohort study between January 14, 2008 and July 31, 2012, including 3,879 nulliparous women who attended for a research screening ultrasound examination at 36 wkGA. Foetal presentation was assessed and compared for the groups with and without a clinically indicated ultrasound. Where breech presentation was detected, an external cephalic version (ECV) was routinely offered. If the ECV was unsuccessful or not performed, the women were offered either planned cesarean section at 39 weeks or attempted vaginal breech delivery. To compare the likelihood of different mode of deliveries and associated long-term health outcomes for universal ultrasound to current practice, a probabilistic economic simulation model was constructed. Parameter values were obtained from the POP study, and costs were mainly obtained from the English National Health Service (NHS). One hundred seventy-nine out of 3,879 women (4.6%) were diagnosed with breech presentation at 36 weeks. For most women (96), there had been no prior suspicion of noncephalic presentation. ECV was attempted for 84 (46.9%) women and was successful in 12 (success rate: 14.3%). Overall, 19 of the 179 women delivered vaginally (10.6%), 110 delivered by elective cesarean section (ELCS) (61.5%) and 50 delivered by emergency cesarean section (EMCS) (27.9%). There were no women with undiagnosed breech presentation in labour in the entire cohort. On average, 40 scans were needed per detection of a previously undiagnosed breech presentation. The economic analysis indicated that, compared to current practice, universal late-pregnancy ultrasound would identify around 14,826 otherwise undiagnosed breech presentations across England annually. It would also reduce EMCS and vaginal breech deliveries by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively: around 4,196 and 6,061 deliveries across England annually. Universal ultrasound would also prevent 7.89 neonatal mortalities annually. The strategy would be cost effective if foetal presentation could be assessed for £19.80 or less per woman. Limitations to this study included that foetal presentation was revealed to all women and that the health economic analysis may be altered by parity.
According to our estimates, universal late pregnancy ultrasound in nulliparous women (1) would virtually eliminate undiagnosed breech presentation, (2) would be expected to reduce foetal mortality in breech presentation, and (3) would be cost effective if foetal presentation could be assessed for less than £19.80 per woman.
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