The energy sector is highly dependent on climate variability for electricity generation, maintenance activities and demand. In recent years, a few climate services have appeared that provide tailored ...information for the energy sector. In particular, seasonal climate predictions of wind speed have proven useful to the wind power industry. However, most of the service users are ultimately interested in forecasts of electricity generation instead of wind. Although power generation depends on many factors other than wind conditions, the capacity factor is a suitable indicator to quantify the impact of wind variability on production. In this paper a methodology to produce seasonal predictions of capacity factor for a range of turbine classes is proposed for the first time. The strengths and weaknesses of the method are discussed and the forecast quality is evaluated for an application example over Europe.
•A method to produce seasonal forecasts of renewable generation is presented.•A unified approach that fits the specific nature of any wind farm is employed.•Some limitations of seasonal prediction systems are identified and addressed.•The generation forecasts perform better than climatology in some European regions.
This work analyses the potential air quality improvements resulting from three fleet electrification scenarios (∼13, 26 and 40%) by replacing conventional vehicles with Electric Battery Vehicles ...(EBVs), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). This study has been performed for the cities of Barcelona and Madrid (Spain), where road transport is the primary emission source. In these urban areas, several air quality problems are present, mainly related to NO2 and particulate matter. The WRF-ARW/HERMESv2/CMAQ model system has been applied at high spatial (1 × 1 km2) and temporal (1 h) resolution. The results show that fleet electrification offers a potential for emission abatement, especially related to NOx and CO. Regarding the more ambitious scenario (∼40% fleet electrification), reductions of 11% and 17% of the total NOx emissions are observed in Barcelona and Madrid respectively. These emissions reductions involve air quality improvements in NO2 maximum hourly values up to 16%: reductions up to 30 and 35 μg m−3 in Barcelona and Madrid, respectively. Furthermore, an additional scenario has been defined considering electric generation emissions associated with EBVs and PHEVs charging from a combined-cycle power plant. These charging emissions would produce slight NO2 increases in the downwind areas of <3 μg m−3. Thus, fleet electrification would improve urban air quality even when considering emissions associated with charging electric vehicles. However, two further points should be considered. First, fleet electrification cannot be considered a unique solution, and other management strategies may be defined. This is especially important with respect to particulate matter emissions, which are not significantly reduced by fleet electrification (<5%) due to the high weight of non-exhaust emissions. Second, a significant introduction of electric vehicles (26–40%) involving all vehicle categories is required to improve urban air quality.
•Modelling air quality impacts upon EV introduction in Barcelona and Madrid.•EV offers potential air quality improvements, especially related to NO2 and CO.•Lower improvements related to PM due to the high weight of non-exhaust emissions.•A high EV introduction is required (26–40%) to significantly improve air quality.•Electricity generation emissions due to EV charging imply slight NO2 rises (<3 μg m−3).
Many urban areas suffer from poor air quality as a consequence of high levels of car-based traffic. Even cities with well-developed multi-modal public transport networks and favourable conditions for ...alternative transportation, such as Barcelona, experience problems with air pollution. The restrictions imposed on movement in response to the COVID-19 pandemic offer insights into the collective social benefits of reduced traffic. This situation also provided much-needed evidence about teleworking that will indicate whether it could become a mainstream and institutionalised practice in certain professions. In Barcelona, the experience of a less polluted, quieter and more liveable city has inspired both the municipal government and the citizens to rethink the use of public spaces and look for ways to reduce car dependency. We argue that this unprecedented crisis is an opportunity to create a more sustainable future of work and mobility in cities in the post-pandemic world.
Both renewable energy supply and electricity demand are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions and their evolution over time in terms of climate variability and climate change. However, ...knowledge of power output and demand forecasting beyond a few days remains poor. Current methodologies assume that long-term resource availability is constant, ignoring the fact that future wind resources could be significantly different from the past wind energy conditions. Such uncertainties create risks that affect investment in wind energy projects at the operational stage where energy yields affect cash flow and the balance of the grid. Here we assess whether sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions (S2S) can skilfully predict wind speed in Europe. To illustrate S2S potential applications, two periods with an unusual climate behaviour affecting the energy market will be presented. We find that wind speed forecasted using S2S exhibits predictability some weeks and months in advance in important regions for the energy sector such as the North Sea. If S2S are incorporated into planning activities for energy traders, energy producers, plant operators, plant investors, they could help improve management climate variability related risks.
This article describes the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System for Mexico (HERMES-Mex) model, an emission processing tool developed to transform the official Mexico City Metropolitan ...Area (MCMA) emission inventory into hourly, gridded (up to 1km2) and speciated emissions used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The methods and ancillary information used for the spatial and temporal disaggregation and speciation of the emissions are presented and discussed. The resulting emission system is evaluated, and a case study on CO, NO2, O3, VOC and PM2.5 concentrations is conducted to demonstrate its applicability. Moreover, resulting traffic emissions from the Mobile Source Emission Factor Model for Mexico (MOBILE6.2-Mexico) and the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator for Mexico (MOVES-Mexico) models are integrated in the tool to assess and compare their performance. NOx and VOC total emissions modelled are reduced by 37% and 26% in the MCMA when replacing MOBILE6.2-Mexico for MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions. In terms of air quality, the system composed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the HERMES-Mex and CMAQ models properly reproduces the pollutant levels and patterns measured in the MCMA. The system's performance clearly improves in urban stations with a strong influence of traffic sources when applying MOVES-Mexico emissions. Despite reducing estimations of modelled precursor emissions, O3 peak averages are increased in the MCMA core urban area (up to 30ppb) when using MOVES-Mexico mobile emissions due to its VOC-limited regime, while concentrations in the surrounding suburban/rural areas decrease or increase depending on the meteorological conditions of the day. The results obtained suggest that the HERMES-Mex model can be used to provide model-ready emissions for air quality modelling in the MCMA.
Display omitted
•A tool to create air quality model-ready emissions for Mexico City is presented.•The results are discussed and evaluated with an air quality modelling case study.•MOBILE6.2-Mexico and MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions are compared.•Modelled concentrations of CO, NO2 and O3 are improved when using MOVES-Mexico.•O3 peaks are increased in the core urban area when reducing traffic emissions.
We discuss the performance of two global meteorological models in a difficult enclosed sea area and the possible improvements using two respectively nested high resolution local models. Each of the ...four sets of wind fields has been used to drive the same wave model. The performances are judged on the base of measured, buoys and satellites, wind and wave data. The analysis shows clearly the general benefits of a higher resolution. However, it also highlights the sensitivity of the nested models to apparently minor changes in the input information from the global models and their consequent possibility of larger errors, particularly in complex meteorological situations.
•Accuracy of nested models.•Sensitivity to father model.•Meteorological complicated situations.
We present a coupled macroscopic traffic and emission modelling system tailored to the Barcelona metropolitan area that allows estimating hourly road transport emissions at road link level. We use ...the developed system to perform an emission sensitivity analysis of typically high uncertainty emission features and assess their impact. We also explore the uncertainties of our system compared to a microscopic approach in a representative area of Barcelona. The developed macroscopic system shows a high sensitivity to spatially-resolved vehicle fleet composition inputs, meteorological effects on diesel engines (+19% in NOx) and non-exhaust sources (80% of total PM emissions). The comparison with the microscopic system shows that discrepancies grow as a function of the congestion level, up to +65% in NOx. The resulting coupled system will be used in further steps of the research to evaluate the impact of traffic management strategies upon urban emissions and air quality levels in Barcelona.
•The coupled system provides dynamic street-level emissions across 265k street segments.•Satisfactory overall behaviour despite some limitations in heavy traffic conditions.•Accounting for real public bus routes and non-exhaust PM sources has a strong impact.•The system will help evaluating the impact of mobility policies on air quality.
PDF
