•We present a review of GHG reduction measures and their potential in shipping.•We find a large variability in CO2 reduction potential for reported measures.•CO2 emissions can be reduced by a factor ...4–6 per freight unit transported.•Sector-wide reductions are impeded by expected growth in maritime transport.•Significant reductions require a combination of many individual reduction measures.
CO2 emissions from maritime transport represent around 3% of total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emissions are assumed to increase by 150–250% in 2050 in business-as-usual scenarios with a tripling of world trade, while achieving a 1.5–2°C climate target requires net zero GHG emissions across all economic sectors. Consequentially, the maritime sector is facing the challenge to significantly reduce its GHG emissions as contribution to the international ambition to limit the effects of climate change.
This article presents the results of a review of around 150 studies, to provide a comprehensive overview of the CO2 emissions reduction potentials and measures published in literature. It aims to identify the most promising areas, i.e. technologies and operational practices, and quantify the combined mitigation potential. Results show a significant variation in reported CO2 reduction potentials across reviewed studies. In addition, no single measure is sufficient to achieve meaningful GHG reductions. Emissions can be reduced by more than 75%, based on current technologies and by 2050, through a combination of measures if policies and regulations are focused on achieving these reductions. In terms of emissions per freight unit transported, it is possible to reduce emissions by a factor of 4–6.
Abstract Global aviation emissions have been growing despite international efforts to limit climate change. Quantifying the status quo of domestic and international aviation emissions is necessary ...for establishing an understanding of current emissions and their mitigation. Yet, a majority of the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC)-ratifying parties have infrequently disclosed aviation emissions within the international framework, if at all. Here, we present a set of national aviation emission and fuel burn inventories for these 197 individual parties, as calculated by the high-resolution aviation transport emissions assessment model (AviTeam) model. In addition to CO 2 emissions, the AviTeam model calculates pollutant emissions, including NO x , SO x , unburnt hydrocarbons, black carbon, and organic carbon. Emission inventories are created in aggregated and gridded format and rely on Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast combined with schedule data. The cumulative global fuel burn is estimated at 291 Tg for the year 2019. This corresponds to CO 2 emissions of 920 Tg, with 306 Tg originating from domestic aviation. We present emissions from 151 countries that have yet to report their emissions for 2019, which sum to 417 TgCO 2 . The improved availability of national emissions data facilitated by this inventory could support mitigation efforts in developed and developing countries and shows that such tools could bolster sector reporting to the UNFCCC.
CO
2 emissions from maritime transport represent a significant part of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to the International Maritime Organization (
Second IMO GHG study, 2009), ...maritime transport emitted 1046 million tons (all tons are metric) of CO
2 in 2007, representing 3.3% of the world's total CO
2 emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is currently debating both technical and market-based measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. This paper presents investigations on the effects of speed reductions on the direct emissions and costs of maritime transport, for which the selection of ship classes was made to facilitate an aggregated representation of the world fleet. The results show that there is a substantial potential for reducing CO
2 emissions in shipping. Emissions can be reduced by 19% with a negative abatement cost (cost minimization) and by 28% at a zero abatement cost. Since these emission reductions are based purely on lower speeds, they can in part be performed now.
► We investigates the effects of speed reductions for maritime transport. ► The selection of ship classes represent the words fleet. ► The transport volumes are kept constant. ► The model includes both cost and emissions as a function of speed. ► The results show that there is a substantial potential for reducing CO
2 emissions from shipping.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral, i.e. the CO2 released from biofuel combustion ...approximately equals the amount of CO2 sequestered in biomass. This convention, widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems, underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO2 emissions from permanent C losses, CO2 emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth, CO2 molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper, a method to estimate the climate impact of CO2 emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO2 impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass‐derived CO2 emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit‐based index, the GWPbio. Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass, our results can be applied to CO2 emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species, from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest.
Summary
There is growing interest in understanding how storage or delayed emission of carbon in products based on bioresources might mitigate climate change, and how such activities could be ...credited. In this research we extend the recently introduced approach that integrates biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes with the global carbon cycle (using biogenic global warming potential GWPbio) to consider the storage period of harvested biomass in the anthroposphere, with subsequent oxidation. We then examine how this affects the climate impact from a bioenergy resource. This approach is compared to several recent methods designed to address the same problem. Using both a 100‐ and a 500‐year fixed time horizon we calculate the GWPbio factor for every combination of rotational and anthropogenic storage periods between 0 and 100 years. The resulting GWPbio factors range from −0.99 (1‐year rotation and 100‐year storage) to +0.44 (100‐year rotation and 0‐year storage). The approach proposed in this study includes the interface between biomass growth and emissions and the global carbon cycle, whereas other methods do not model this. These results and the characterization factors produced can determine the climate change benefits or impacts associated with the storage of biomass in the anthroposphere, and the subsequent release of biogenic CO2 with the radiative forcing integrated in a fixed time window.
Production of biomass for bioenergy can alter biogeochemical and biogeophysical mechanisms, thus affecting local and global climate. Recent scientific developments have mainly embraced impacts from ...land use changes resulting from area-expanded biomass production, with several extensive insights available. Comparably less attention, however, has been given to the assessment of direct land surface-atmosphere climate impacts of bioenergy systems under rotation such as in plantations and forested ecosystems, whereby land use disturbances are only temporary. Here, following IPCC climate metrics, we assess bioenergy systems in light of two important dynamic land use climate factors, namely, the perturbation in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration caused by the timing of biogenic CO2 fluxes, and temporary perturbations to surface reflectivity (albedo). Existing radiative forcing-based metrics can be adapted to include such dynamic mechanisms, but high spatial and temporal modeling resolution is required. Results show the importance of specifically addressing the climate forcings from biogenic CO2 fluxes and changes in albedo, especially when biomass is sourced from forested areas affected by seasonal snow cover. The climate performance of bioenergy systems is highly dependent on biomass species, local climate variables, time horizons, and the climate metric considered. Bioenergy climate impact studies and accounting mechanisms should rapidly adapt to cover both biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts, so that policy makers can rely on scientifically robust analyses and promote the most effective global climate mitigation options.
•Reducing emissions in a cost efficient way has become a necessity for shipping lines.•For existing vessels retrofit of scrubbers is an economic viable option.•For LNG to be competitive its price has ...to be lower than the price of the HFO.•The risk of modal shift due to increased fuel cost is relevant.•It is the smallest vessels which will get the largest cost increase.
This paper assesses cost as a function of abatement options in maritime emission control areas (ECA). The first regulation of air pollutions from ships which came into effect in the late 1990s was not strict and could easily be met. However the present requirement (2015) for reduction of Sulfur content for all vessels, in combination with the required reduction of nitrogen and carbon emissions for new-built vessels, is an economic and technical challenge for the shipping industry. Additional complexity is added by the fact that the strictest nitrogen regulations are applicable only for new-built vessels from 2016 onwards which shall enter US or Canadian waters. This study indicates that there is no single answer to what is the best abatement option, but rather that the best option will be a function of engine size, annual fuel consumption in the ECA and the foreseen future fuel prices. However a low oil price, favors the options with the lowest capex, i.e. Marine Gas Oil (MGO) or Light Fuel Oil (LFO), while a high oil price makes the solutions which requires higher capex (investments) more attractive.
Reducing aviation emissions is important as they contribute to air pollution and climate change. Several alternative aviation fuels that may reduce life cycle emissions have been proposed. ...Comparative life cycle assessments (LCAs) of fuels are useful for inspecting individual fuels, but systemwide analysis remains difficult. Thus, systematic properties like fleet composition, performance, or emissions and changes to them under alternative fuels can only be partially addressed in LCAs. By integrating the geospatial fuel and emission model, AviTeam, with LCA, we can assess the mitigation potential of a fleetwide use of alternative aviation fuels on 210 000 shorter haul flights. In an optimistic case, liquid hydrogen (LH2) and power-to-liquid fuels, when produced with renewable electricity, may reduce emissions by about 950 GgCO2eq when assessed with the GWP100 metric and including non-CO2 impacts for all flights considered. Mitigation potentials range from 44% on shorter flights to 56% on longer flights. Alternative aviation fuels’ mitigation potential is limited because of short-lived climate forcings and additional fuel demand to accommodate LH2 fuel. Our results highlight the importance of integrating system models into LCAs and are of value to researchers and decision-makers engaged in climate change mitigation in the aviation and transport sectors.
Developing comprehensive scenarios for the shipping sector has been a challenge for the Integrated Assessment Model (IAMs) community, influencing how attainable decarbonization is in the sector, and ...for Earth System Models (ESMs), impacting the climate contribution of shipping emissions. Here we present an approach to develop spatially explicit energy demand projections for shipping in alignment with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework and IAMs projections of global fossil fuel demand. Our results show that shipping could require between 14 and 20 EJ by 2050, corresponding to a 3% and 44% increase from 2018 for the SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Furthermore, the energy projections we present in this publication can be combined with different fuel mixes to derive emission inventories for climate modeling and, thus, improve our understanding of the various challenges in mitigating emissions for shipping. Through that, we aim to present a framework to incorporate detailed spatial shipping inventories and increase transparency for the scientific community.
Process‐based Life Cycle Assessments (PLCA) rely on detailed descriptions of extensive value chains and their associated exchanges with the environment, but major data gaps limit the completeness of ...these system descriptions and lead to truncations in inventories and underestimations of impacts. Hybrid Life Cycle Assessments (HLCA) aim to combine the strength of PLCA and Environmentally Extended Input Output (EEIO) analysis to obtain more specific and complete system descriptions. Currently, however, most HLCAs only remediate truncation of processes that are specific to each case study (foreground processes), and these processes are then linked to (truncated) generic background processes from a non‐hybridized PLCA database. A hybrid PLCA‐EEIO database is therefore required to completely solve the truncation problems of PLCA and thus obtain a comprehensive product system coverage. This paper describes the construction of such a database using pyLCAIO, a novel framework and open‐source software enabling the streamlined hybridization of entire PLCA and EEIO databases. We applied this framework to the PLCA database Ecoinvent3.5 and the multiregional EEIO database EXIOBASE 3. Thanks to the correction for truncation in this new hybrid database, the median and average life cycle global warming potential (GWP) of its processes increased by 7% and 14%, respectively. These corrections only reflect the truncations that could be readily identified and estimated in a semi‐automated manner; and we anticipate that further database integration should lead to higher levels of correction in the future.
PDF
