Abstract
It is generally believed that anthropogenic aerosols cool the atmosphere; therefore, they offset the global warming resulting from greenhouse gases to some extent. Reduction in sulphate, a ...primary anthropogenic aerosol, is necessary for mitigating air pollution, which causes atmospheric warming. Here, the changes in the surface air temperature under various anthropogenic emission amounts of sulphur dioxide (SO
2
), which is a precursor of sulphate aerosol, are simulated under both present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO
2
) concentrations with a climate model. No previous studies have conducted explicit experiments to estimate the temperature changes due to individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) in different climate states with atmosphere–ocean coupled models. The simulation results clearly show that reducing SO
2
emissions at high CO
2
concentrations will significantly enhance atmospheric warming in comparison with that under the present CO
2
concentration. In the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the temperature change that will occur when fuel SO
2
emissions reach zero under a doubled CO
2
concentration will be approximately 1.0 °C, while this value will be approximately 0.5 °C under the present state. This considerable difference can affect the discussion of the 1.5 °C/2 °C target in the Paris Agreement.
Reducing black carbon (BC), i.e. soot, in the atmosphere is a potential mitigation measure for climate change before revealing the effect of reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO
) because BC ...with shorter lifetime than CO
absorbs solar and infrared radiation. BC has a strong positive radiative forcing in the atmosphere, as indicated in many previous studies. Here, we show that the decline in surface air temperatures with reduced BC emissions is weaker than would be expected from the magnitude of its instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Climate simulations show that the global mean change in surface air temperature per unit of instantaneous radiative forcing of BC at the TOA is about one-eighth that of sulphate aerosols, which cool the climate through scattering solar radiation, without absorption. This is attributed to the positive radiation budget of BC being largely compensated for by rapid atmospheric adjustment, whereas the radiative imbalance due to sulphate aerosols drives a slow response of climate over a long timescale. Regional climate responses to short-lived species are shown to exhibit even more complex characteristics due to their heterogeneous spatial distributions, requiring further analysis in future studies.
The North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) has been observed and predicted due to the increase in carbon dioxide (CO
) concentration. If sulphate aerosols, which have a cooling effect on the atmosphere, ...are reduced by air pollution control, the NAWH may form as it would if CO
concentrations increased. In this study, sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-aerosol model were conducted by varying the amount of sulphur dioxide (SO
) emissions, a precursor of sulphate which is the primary anthropogenic aerosol in the atmosphere, to analyse the changes in the ocean temperature, salinity, and density. The results showed that although the spatial patterns of the NAWH due to the changes in SO
emissions was similar to that due to the changes in the CO
concentrations, the magnitude of the shifts in the ocean parameters due to the changes in SO
emissions is larger even when changes in global mean temperature are comparable. This can be due to the spatial concentration of sulphate aerosols in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting larger changes in the heat transport from the south on the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current along with changes in freshwater inflow from the Arctic through the Labrador Sea.
The profound changes in global SOsubscript 2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric ...deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.
Inverse modeling of Asian dust over the 8 year period 2005–2012 was performed with the Spectral Radiation‐Transport Model for Aerosol Species/four‐dimensional variational (SPRINTARS/4D‐Var) data ...assimilation system and satellite‐measured aerosol optical thickness over the ocean. We validated the inversion results with independent measurements provided by ground‐based and space‐based lidar and various in situ measurements. The inversion results were used to analyze interannual variations of Asian dust fluxes and relationships of these fluxes with climate indices. Dust emissions from central China and the Mongolian Plateau were 229–384 Tg yr−1. The standard deviation of 55.3 Tg yr−1 reflected large interannual variability. The frequency of dust storms and the beginning of the dust season in the source region also showed interannual variations. There was a meridional shift of the outflow path from the continent; the transport core was centered at 40–45°N during southern transport years (2006–2007) and at 35–40°N during northern transport years (2005 and 2008–2012). The fact that dust deposition showed a significant positive correlation with satellite‐measured chlorophyll concentrations indicated that settled Asian dust enhanced phytoplankton blooms in the eastern North Pacific. Dust emissions were positively and negatively correlated with the Far Eastern Zonal and Dynamical Normalized Seasonality indices, respectively, the implication being that a strong meridional pressure gradient over the source region and a strong winter monsoon favor dust emission. The fact that the Southern Oscillation Index was positively correlated with dust emission, transport, and deposition suggests that Asian dust is affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle and is enhanced during the La Niña phase.
Key Points
Long‐term inverse modeling of Asian dust was performed for the period 2005–2012
Interannual variability of Asian dust was analyzed with the inversion results
The relationship between Asian dust and climate indices was also investigated
The sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate
(MIROC), called MIROC6, was cooperatively developed by a Japanese modeling
community. In the present paper, simulated mean ...climate, internal
climate variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 are evaluated and
briefly summarized in comparison with the previous version of our climate
model (MIROC5) and observations. The results show that the overall
reproducibility of mean climate and internal climate variability in MIROC6
is better than that in MIROC5. The tropical climate systems (e.g.,
summertime precipitation in the western Pacific and the eastward-propagating
Madden–Julian oscillation) and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation
(e.g., the westerlies, the polar night jet, and troposphere–stratosphere
interactions) are significantly improved in MIROC6. These improvements can
be attributed to the newly implemented parameterization for shallow
convective processes and to the inclusion of the stratosphere. While there
are significant differences in climates and variabilities between the two
models, the effective climate sensitivity of 2.6 K remains the same because
the differences in radiative forcing and climate feedback tend to offset
each other. With an aim towards contributing to the sixth phase of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, designated simulations tackling a
wide range of climate science issues, as well as seasonal to decadal climate
predictions and future climate projections, are currently ongoing using
MIROC6.
A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has ...recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5.
A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between the two MIROC3.2 versions, indicating a greater effect of updating parameterization schemes on the model climate than increasing the model resolution. The mean cloud property obtained from the sophisticated prognostic schemes in MIROC5 shows good agreement with satellite measurements. MIROC5 reveals an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 K, which is lower than that in MIROC3.2 by 1 K. This is probably due to the negative feedback of low clouds to the increasing concentration of CO₂, which is opposite to that in MIROC3.2.
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