Food security is high on the global policy agenda. Demand for food is increasing as populations grow and gain wealth to purchase more varied and resource-intensive diets. There is increased ...competition for land, water, energy, and other inputs into food production. Climate change poses challenges to agriculture, particularly in developing countries (1), and many current farming practices damage the environment and are a major source of greenhouse gases (GHG). In an increasingly globalized world, food insecurity in one region can have widespread political and economic ramifications (2).
Rangelands are one of the Earth's major ice-free land cover types. They provide food and support livelihoods for millions of people in addition to delivering important ecosystems services. However, ...rangelands are at threat from climate change, although the extent and magnitude of the potential impacts are poorly understood. Any declines in vegetation biomass and fluctuations in grazing availability would be of concern for food production and ecosystem integrity and functionality. In this study, we use a global rangeland model in combination with livestock and socio-economic datasets to identify where and to what extent rangeland systems may be at climatic risk. Overall, mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (−4.7%), while inter- (year-to-year) and intra- (month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatial heterogeneities, with 74% of global rangeland area projected to experience a decline in mean biomass, 64% an increase in inter-annual variability and 54% an increase in intra-annual variability. Half of global rangeland areas are projected to experience simultaneously a decrease in mean biomass and an increase in inter-annual variability-vegetation trends both potentially harmful for livestock production. These regions include notably the Sahel, Australia, Mongolia, China, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and support 376 million people and 174 million ruminant Tropical Livestock Units. Additionally, the rangeland communities currently the most vulnerable (here, with the lowest livestock productivities and economic development levels and with the highest projected increases in human population densities) are projected to also experience the most damaging vegetation trends for livestock production. Although the capacity of rangeland systems to adapt is highly complex, analyses such as these generate some of the information required to inform options to facilitate pastoral system mitigation and adaptation strategies under climate change.
Farmers in mixed crop-livestock systems produce about half of the world's food. In small holdings around the world, livestock are reared mostly on grass, browse, and nonfood biomass from maize, ...millet, rice, and sorghum crops and in their turn supply manure and traction for future crops. Animals act as insurance against hard times and supply farmers with a source of regular income from sales of milk, eggs, and other products. Thus, faced with population growth and climate change, small-holder farmers should be the first target for policies to intensify production by carefully managed inputs of fertilizer, water, and feed to minimize waste and environmental impact, supported by improved access to markets, new varieties, and technologies.
► Agriculture must adapt both to progressive climate change over periods of decades and to increasing climate variability. ► Adaptation to progressive climate change needs multi-pronged strategies ...that include new farming systems, targeted technologies and institutional change. ► Options for better management of climate risks include seasonal weather forecasts, index insurance, local diversification and innovations in food systems. ► Agriculture has considerable potential to contribute to mitigation without compromising food security, through careful deployment of appropriate technologies, incentives and regulation.
Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.
The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the ...Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.
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•Risk results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems.•Climate change will impact the livestock sector throughout the food supply chain—from farm production to human consumption.•Key hazards relate to climate change trends but also, and importantly, to climate variability and climate extremes.•Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems.•Adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures.
Despite the importance of livestock to poor people and the magnitude of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems, the intersection of climate change and livestock in developing ...countries is a relatively neglected research area. Little is known about the interactions of climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of change in livestock systems and in broader development trends. In many places in the tropics and subtropics, livestock systems are changing rapidly, and the spatial heterogeneity of household response to change may be very large. While opportunities may exist for some households to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping conditions, for example, the changes projected will pose serious problems for many other households. We briefly review the literature on climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries, and identify some key knowledge and data gaps. We also list some of the broad researchable issues associated with how smallholders and pastoralists might respond to climate change. The agendas of research and development organisations may need adjustment if the needs of vulnerable livestock keepers in the coming decades are to be met effectively.
•There is no evidence for agricultural extensification across areas in East Africa.•Food insecurity is common at all sites with an annual rainfall of 800mm or less.•Households pursue diversification ...also where livestock is crucial for livelihoods.•Opportunistic cropping is seen as a diversification strategy in low rainfall places.•Systems are in transition but the changes are not necessarily climate driven.
Climate-induced livelihood transitions in the agricultural systems of Africa are increasingly likely. There is limited evidence on what such transitions might look like. We carried out fieldwork in 12 sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to understand changes in farming systems in the recent past, and to test the hypothesis that sedentary farmers in zones that may become warmer and drier in the future may be forced to increase their reliance on livestock vis-à-vis cropping in the future. We estimated the contribution of crop and livestock activities to incomes, food security and poverty. Householders were asked how to adapt farming in the future. We found no direct evidence for the hypothesised extensification of production across study sites. Human diets have changed considerably in the last 40 years, as cropping has been taken up by increasing numbers of pastoral households, even in marginal places. Maize and legumes predominate, but some householders are increasing their crop and diet diversity, particularly in locations with annual rainfall higher than 800mm. At all sites people want more livestock. Food insecurity is common at all sites with an annual rainfall of 800mm or less, and critical levels are seen at sites with <700mm. Households are self-sufficient in securing adequate dietary energy from food production in 7 of the 12 sites, all with rainfall higher than 800mm. Although many householders have some knowledge about drought-tolerant crops, few cultivate millet, sorghum and cassava. Policies aimed at increasing the consumption of cassava, sorghum, millet and pigeon pea could be highly beneficial for future food security in the region. Vulnerability in the drier locations is already high, and policies should support safety nets and market and infrastructural development. Households in the wetter areas need to manage risk and to increase crop productivity. A critical requirement is knowledge transfer concerning the growing and utilisation of unfamiliar and untraditional crops.
•Rights, social relations, organizations and policies shape vulnerability.•Policies take away communities tm) traditional natural resources decision-making.•Agriculture and livestock production ...agencies show great anti-women biases.•Women are more vulnerable than men but may have similar or better adaptive capacity.
In this paper we examine conditions that underlie vulnerability and resilience possibilities for households and communities that face and respond to climate- and other changes, in nine East and West African countries. We base our analysis on a unique integrated qualitative and quantitative dataset composed of household surveys and village focus group studies carried out across a wide range of environments and agricultural systems. We identify human population growth, commercialization of the economy, and natural resource use policies, in addition to weather, as key drivers of change. We compare the agricultural and livelihood systems of male and female respondents, as well as their productive resources, organization and access to services. Women have less access than men to common property resources, as well as to cash to obtain goods or services. Women control less land than men, the land they control is often of poorer quality, and their tenure is insecure. Women engage in mutual insurance and risk-sharing networks, and benefit from non-agricultural services provided by social support institutions external to the village. Formally registered, public and private external organizations that foster agriculture and livestock production have tremendous anti-women biases, and tend to provide support primarily to men. Policies and strategies are needed to eliminate those prejudices so that men and women increase their resilience and manage well their changing environments.
A microdose cocktail containing midazolam, dabigatran etexilate, pitavastatin, rosuvastatin, and atorvastatin has been established to allow simultaneous assessment of a perpetrator impact on the most ...common drug metabolizing enzyme, cytochrome P450 (CYP)3A, and the major transporters organic anion‐transporting polypeptides (OATP)1B, breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP), and MDR1 P‐glycoprotein (P‐gp). The clinical utility of these microdose cocktail probe substrates was qualified by conducting clinical drug interaction studies with three inhibitors with different in vitro inhibitory profiles (rifampin, itraconazole, and clarithromycin). Generally, the pharmacokinetic profiles of the probe substrates, in the absence and presence of the inhibitors, were comparable to their reported corresponding pharmacological doses, and/or in agreement with theoretical expectations. The exception was dabigatran, which resulted in an approximately twofold higher magnitude for microdose compared to conventional dosing, and, thus, can be used to flag a worst‐case scenario for P‐gp. Broader application of the microdose cocktail will facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the roles of drug transporters in drug disposition and drug interactions.
The promotion of climate-smart agriculture in different parts of the world requires a clear understanding of its relative suitability, costs and benefits, and the environmental implications of ...various technological interventions in a local context under current and future climates. Such data are generally difficult to obtain from the literature, field surveys and focused group discussions, or from biophysical experiments. This article describes a spreadsheet-based methodology that generates this information based on a region specific production function and ‘target yield’ approach in current and future climate scenarios. Target yields are identified for homogeneous agroecological spatial units using published crop yield datasets, crop models, expert judgement, biophysical land characterisations, assessment of yield gaps and future development strategies. Validated production/transfer functions are used to establish relationships between inputs (water, seed, fertilizer, machinery, energy, labour, costs) and outputs (crop yields, residues, water and fertiliser use efficiencies, greenhouse gas emissions, financial returns). The process is repeated for all spatial units of the region, identified through detailed mapping of critical biophysical factors, and for all suitable current and potential agronomic production technologies and practices. The application of this approach is illustrated for prioritizing agronomic interventions that can enhance productivity and incomes, help farmers adapt to current risk, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in current and future climates for the flood- and drought-prone state of Bihar in north-eastern India. In general, climate smartness increases with advanced technologies. Yield is the least limiting while emission is the most limiting factor across the entire crop-technology portfolio for climate smartness. Finally, we present a robust climate smart land use plan at district level in Bihar under current and future climate scenarios.
•A bottom-up methodology for database development for climate smart agriculture prioritization is described•Climate smart districts in current and future climate are identified using indicators of yield, income and emissions•Climate smartness across Bihar will be limited more by greenhouse gas emissions than increase in the yield and income
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