Sequential sampling models assume that people make speeded decisions by gradually accumulating noisy information until a threshold of evidence is reached. In cognitive science, one such model-the ...diffusion decision model-is now regularly used to decompose task performance into underlying processes such as the quality of information processing, response caution, and a priori bias. In the cognitive neurosciences, the diffusion decision model has recently been adopted as a quantitative tool to study the neural basis of decision making under time pressure. We present a selective overview of several recent applications and extensions of the diffusion decision model in the cognitive neurosciences.
Bayesian inference for rank-order problems is frustrated by the absence of an explicit likelihood function. This hurdle can be overcome by assuming a latent normal representation that is consistent ...with the ordinal information in the data: the observed ranks are conceptualized as an impoverished reflection of an underlying continuous scale, and inference concerns the parameters that govern the latent representation. We apply this generic data-augmentation method to obtain Bayes factors for three popular rank-based tests: the rank sum test, the signed rank test, and Spearman's
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Patients with erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP), a severe painful photodermatosis, experience prodromal sensations when exposed to sunlight, which are the "warning signals" to exit the sun, as ...prolonged exposure causes an excruciatingly painful phototoxic attack. The unique prodromal cutaneous sensations are reversible and differ from the severe burning pain attack lasting 2-7 days. Previously, afamelanotide treatment was studied using time to pain or time outside as primary outcome measures. Since patients have an ingrained fear of sunlight, these measures did not capture the full treatment effect. We retrospectively characterized and evaluated time to prodrome (TTP) as a safer, patient-reported outcome (PRO) measure in afamelanotide-treated patients.
Structured interviews recorded TTP before and during afamelanotide treatment in retrospective US and Dutch cohort studies.
Thirty-one US and 58 Dutch EPP patients participated. Before afamelanotide treatment, 54.8% US and 39.7% Dutch patients reported TTP onset <10 minutes in direct sunlight. In both studies, patients' TTP's were significantly longer during afamelanotide treatment (p < 0.0001). All US patients' TTP increased; no TTP was <10 minutes. Among Dutch patients 81% improved; only 10.3% reported TTPs < 10 minutes.
EPP patients reported substantial improvements in TTP during afamelanotide treatment. TTP could provide a safer, PRO-based efficacy endpoint for assessing future EPP treatments.
Jones and Dzhafarov (2014) provided a useful service in pointing out that some assumptions of modern decision-making models require additional scrutiny. Their main result, however, is not surprising: ...If an infinitely complex model was created by assigning its parameters arbitrarily flexible distributions, this new model would be able to fit any observed data perfectly. Such a hypothetical model would be unfalsifiable. This is exactly why such models have never been proposed in over half a century of model development in decision making. Additionally, the main conclusion drawn from this result-that the success of existing decision-making models can be attributed to assumptions about parameter distributions-is wrong.
The crisis of confidence has undermined the trust that researchers place in the findings of their peers. In order to increase trust in research, initiatives such as preregistration have been ...suggested, which aim to prevent various questionable research practices. As it stands, however, no empirical evidence exists that preregistration does increase perceptions of trust. The picture may be complicated by a researcher's familiarity with the author of the study, regardless of the preregistration status of the research. This registered report presents an empirical assessment of the extent to which preregistration increases the trust of 209 active academics in the reported outcomes, and how familiarity with another researcher influences that trust. Contrary to our expectations, we report ambiguous Bayes factors and conclude that we do not have strong evidence towards answering our research questions. Our findings are presented along with evidence that our manipulations were ineffective for many participants, leading to the exclusion of 68% of complete datasets, and an underpowered design as a consequence. We discuss other limitations and confounds which may explain why the findings of the study deviate from a previously conducted pilot study. We reflect on the benefits of using the registered report submission format in light of our results. The OSF page for this registered report and its pilot can be found here: http://dx.doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/B3K75.
Roberts (
2020
,
Learning & Behavior, 48
2, 191–192) discussed research claiming honeybees can do arithmetic. Some readers of this research might regard such claims as unlikely. The present authors ...used this example as a basis for a debate on the criterion that ought to be used for publication of results or conclusions that could be viewed as unlikely by a significant number of readers, editors, or reviewers.
The Akaike information criterion (AIC; Akaike, 1973) is a popular method for comparing the adequacy of multiple, possibly nonnested models. Current practice in cognitive psychology is to accept a ...single model on the basis of only the "raw" AIC values, making it difficult to unambiguously interpret the observed AIC differences in terms of a continuous measure such as probability. Here we demonstrate that AIC values can be easily transformed to so-called Akaike weights (e.g., Akaike, 1978, 1979; Bozdogan, 1987; Burnham & Anderson, 2002), which can be directly interpreted as conditional probabilities for each model. We show by example how these Akaike weights can greatly facilitate the interpretation of the results of AIC model comparison procedures.
Although the endoscopic technique of transsphenoidal pituitary surgery (TS) has been widely adopted, reports on its results in Cushing's disease (CD) are still scarce and no studies have investigated ...long-term recurrence rates. This is the largest endoscopic series published till now.
To gain insight into the role of endoscopic TS as a primary treatment option for CD, especially in patients with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-negative CD and (invasive) macroadenomas.
Retrospective cohort study.
The medical records of 86 patients with CD who underwent endoscopic TS were examined. Data on preoperative and postoperative evaluation, perioperative complications, and follow-up were collected. Remission was defined as disappearance of clinical symptoms with a fasting plasma cortisol level ≤ 50 nmol/l either basal or after 1 mg dexamethasone.
The remission rate in different adenoma subclasses varied significantly: 60% in MRI-negative CD (n=20), 83% in microadenomas (n=35), 94% in noninvasive macroadenomas (n=16), and 40% in macroadenomas that invaded the cavernous sinus (n=15). The recurrence rate was 16% after 71 ± 39 months of follow-up (mean ± S.D., range 10-165 months).
Endoscopic TS is a safe and effective treatment for all patients with CD. Recurrence rates after endoscopic TS are comparable with those reported for microscopic TS. Our data suggest that in patients with noninvasive and invasive macroadenomas, the endoscopic technique of TS should be the treatment of choice as remission rates seem to be higher than those reported for microscopic TS, although no comparative study has been performed.
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