Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise Gregory, J. M.; White, N. J.; Church, J. A. ...
Journal of climate,
07/2013, Letnik:
26, Številka:
13
Journal Article, Web Resource
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Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass ...loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors’ closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.
Background
Although egg allergy is the most common food allergy in infants and young children, risk factors for egg allergy remain largely unknown. This study examined the relationship between ...environmental and demographic factors and egg allergy in a population‐based infant cohort.
Methods
In a study of 5276 infants (HealthNuts), infants underwent skin prick testing (SPT) to egg white at 12 months of age. Questionnaire data on relevant exposures were obtained. 699/873 (80%) infants eligible for oral food challenge (detectable wheal on SPT) attended for formal assessment of egg allergy status; 453 had confirmed egg allergy (positive challenge and SPT ≥ 2 mm). Associations between environmental and demographic factors and egg allergy were investigated using multivariable logistic regression.
Results
Children with older siblings and those with a pet dog at home were less likely to develop egg allergy by 1 year of age (adjusted OR aOR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.62, 0.83 per sibling; and aOR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52, 0.99, respectively). Caesarean section delivery, antibiotic use in infancy, childcare attendance and maternal age were not associated with egg allergy. History of allergic disease in an immediate family member and having parents born in East Asia were strong risk factors for infantile egg allergy (aOR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.40, 2.36; and aOR, 3.30; 95% CI, 2.45, 4.45, respectively).
Conclusions
Exposure in the first year of life to siblings and dogs may decrease the risk of subsequent egg allergy. Infants with a family history of allergy and those with parents born in East Asia are at increased risk of egg allergy.
Background
Epidemiological evidence suggests that routine vaccinations can have nontargeted effects on susceptibility to infections and allergic disease. Such effects may depend on age at ...vaccination, and a delay in pertussis vaccination has been linked to reduced risk of allergic disease. We aimed to test the hypothesis that delay in vaccines containing diphtheria–tetanus–acellular pertussis (DTaP) is associated with reduced risk of food allergy and other allergic diseases.
Methods
HealthNuts is a population‐based cohort in Melbourne, Australia. Twelve‐month‐old infants were skin prick‐tested to common food allergens, and sensitized infants were offered oral food challenges to determine food allergy status. In this data linkage study, vaccination data for children in the HealthNuts cohort were obtained from the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register. Associations were examined between age at the first dose of DTaP and allergic disease.
Results
Of 4433 children, 109 (2.5%) received the first dose of DTaP one month late (delayed DTaP). Overall, delayed DTaP was not associated with primary outcomes of food allergy (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.77; 95% CI: 0.36–1.62, P = 0.49) or atopic sensitization (aOR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.35–1.24, P = 0.19). Amongst secondary outcomes, delayed DTaP was associated with reduced eczema (aOR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.34–0.97, P = 0.04) and reduced use of eczema medication (aOR: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.24–0.83, P = 0.01).
Conclusions
There was no overall association between delayed DTaP and food allergy; however, children with delayed DTaP had less eczema and less use of eczema medication. Timing of routine infant immunizations may affect susceptibility to allergic disease.
Summary
Background
Food allergy, eczema and wheeze are early manifestations of allergic disease and commonly co‐occur in infancy although their interrelationship is not well understood. Data from ...population studies are essential to determine whether there are differential drivers of multi‐allergy phenotypes. We aimed to define phenotypes and risk factors of allergic disease using latent class analysis (LCA).
Methods
The HealthNuts study is a prospective, population‐based cohort of 5276 12‐month‐old infants in Melbourne, Australia. LCA was performed using the following baseline data collected at age 12 months: food sensitization (skin prick test ≥ 2 mm) and allergy (oral food challenge) to egg, peanut and sesame; early (< 4 months) and late‐onset eczema; and wheeze in the first year of life. Risk factors were modelled using multinomial logistic regression.
Results
Five distinct phenotypes were identified: no allergic disease (70%), non‐food‐sensitized eczema (16%), single egg allergy (9%), multiple food allergies (predominantly peanut) (3%) and multiple food allergies (predominantly egg) (2%). Compared to the baseline group of no allergic disease, shared risk factors for all allergic phenotypes were parents born overseas (particularly Asia), delayed introduction of egg, male gender (except for single egg allergy) and family history of allergic disease, whilst exposure to pet dogs was protective for all phenotypes. Other factors including filaggrin mutations, vitamin D and the presence of older siblings differed by phenotype.
Conclusions and clinical relevance
Multiple outcomes in infancy can be used to determine five distinct allergy phenotypes at the population level, which have both shared and separate risk factors suggesting differential mechanisms of disease.
Intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH), defined as a pathologically increase in intraabdominal pressure, is commonly found in critically ill patients. While IAH has been associated with several abdominal ...as well as extra-abdominal conditions, few studies have examined the occurrence of IAH in relation to mortality. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the prognostic role of IAH and its risk factors at admission in critically ill patients across a wide range of settings and countries. An individual patient meta-analysis of all available data and a systematic review of published (in full or as abstract) medical databases and studies between 1996 and June 2012 were performed. The search was limited to "clinical trials" and "randomized controlled trials", "adults", using the terms "intra-abdominal pressure", "intraabdominal hypertension" combined with any of the terms "outcome" and "mortality". All together data on 2707 patients, representing 21 centers from 11 countries was obtained. Data on 1038 patients were not analysed because of the following exclusion criteria: no IAP value on admission (N.=712), absence of information on ICU outcome (N.=195), age <18 or >95 years (N.=131). Data from 1669 individual patients (19 centers from 9 countries) were analyzed in the meta-analysis. Presence of IAH was defined as a sustained increase in IAP equal to or above 12 mmHg. At admission the mean overall IAP was 9.9±5.0 mmHg, with 463 patients (27.7%) presenting IAH with a mean IAP of 16.3±3.4 mmHg. The only independent predictors for IAH were SOFA score and fluid balance on the day of admission. Five hundred thirteen patients (30.8%) died in intensive care. The independent predictors for intensive care mortality were IAH, SAPS II score, SOFA score and admission category. This systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis shows that IAH is frequently present in critically ill patients and it is an independent predictor for mortality.
Objective To determine whether the probiotic Lactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938 reduces crying or fussing in a broad community based sample of breastfed infants and formula fed infants with colic aged ...less than 3 months. Design Double blind, placebo controlled randomised trial. Setting Community based sample (primary and secondary level care centres) in Melbourne, Australia. Participants 167 breastfed infants or formula fed infants aged less than 3 months meeting Wessel’s criteria for crying or fussing: 85 were randomised to receive probiotic and 82 to receive placebo. Interventions Oral daily L reuteri (1×108 colony forming units) versus placebo for one month. Main outcomes measures The primary outcome was daily duration of cry or fuss at 1 month. Secondary outcomes were duration of cry or fuss; number of cry or fuss episodes; sleep duration of infant at 7, 14, and 21 days, and 1 and 6 months; maternal mental health (Edinburgh postnatal depression subscale); family functioning (paediatric quality of life inventory), parent quality adjusted life years (assessment of quality of life) at 1 and 6 months; infant functioning (paediatric quality of life inventory) at 6 months; infant faecal microbiota (microbial diversity, colonisation with Escherichia coli), and calprotectin levels at 1 month. In intention to treat analyses the two groups were compared using regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Results Of 167 infants randomised from August 2011 to August 2012, 127 (76%) were retained to primary outcome; of these, a subset was analysed for faecal microbial diversity, E coli colonisation, and calprotectin levels. Adherence was high. Mean daily cry or fuss time fell steadily in both groups. At 1 month, the probiotic group cried or fussed 49 minutes more than the placebo group (95% confidence interval 8 to 90 minutes, P=0.02); this mainly reflected more fussing, especially for formula fed infants. The groups were similar on all secondary outcomes. No study related adverse events occurred. ConclusionsL reuteri DSM 17938 did not benefit a community sample of breastfed infants and formula fed infants with colic. These findings differ from previous smaller trials of selected populations and do not support a general recommendation for the use of probiotics to treat colic in infants. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95287767.
Global sea level during the Last Interglacial (LIG, Marine Isotope Sub-stage 5e) peaked between c. 5.5 and 9 m above present, implying significant melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Relative sea ...level (RSL) observations from several far- and intermediate-field sites suggest abrupt fluctuations or jumps in RSL during the LIG highstand that require one or more episodes of ice-sheet collapse and regrowth. Such events should be manifest as unique sea-level fingerprints, recorded in far-, intermediate- and near-field sites depending on the source(s) of ice-mass change involved. To date, though, no coherent evidence of such fluctuations has been reported from near-field RSL studies in northwest Europe. This is an important problem because RSL fluctuations during the LIG are portrayed as warning signs for how polar ice sheets may behave in a future, warmer than present, world. Here we review the evidence for RSL change during the LIG using stratigraphic data from the best resolved highstand records that exist in the near-field of northwest Europe, from a range of settings that include lagoonal, shallow marine, tidal flat, salt marsh and brackish-water fluviatile environments. Consideration of previously published stratigraphic records from two sites in the Eemian coastal-marine embayment that existed in the central Netherlands, yields no clear indications for abrupt RSL change during the attainment of the near-field highstand. Nor do we find any such indications common to other records from countries bordering the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the White Sea. Two modelling experiments that explore the global signal of hypothetical sea-level oscillations caused by partial collapse and regrowth of either the Greenland or Antarctic LIG ice-sheet, show that the North Sea region is relatively insensitive to mass changes sourced from Greenland but should clearly register events with an Antarctic origin, especially those that occur late in the LIG. The lack of evidence for abrupt sea-level fluctuations at this time in northwest Europe concurs with a lack of clear near-field evidence for ice sheet collapse.
•Last Interglacial (LIG) highstand coral reefs record meter-scale sea-level jumps.•We test for such jumps in nearfield, temperate coastal settings of Northwest Europe.•There is no coherent, regional-scale evidence for large sea-level jumps.•There is no strong evidence for LIG ice sheet collapse/regrowth during the highstand.•Caution is needed when inferring ice sheet collapse from LIG highstand sea-level data.
Boreal forests cover about a fifth of seasonally snow‐covered land over the Northern Hemisphere. Enhancement of longwave radiation beneath coniferous forests has been found to impact the surface ...energy balance and rates of snowmelt. Although the skill of model‐simulated snowmelt has been shown to be lower for forests than for open areas, model intercomparisons and evaluations of model parameterizations have not yet focused on longwave enhancement. This study uses stand‐scale forcing for the simulation of subcanopy longwave radiation by Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and to drive SNOWPACK, a snow model featuring more complex canopy structure, as a benchmark model for CLM4.5. Simulated subcanopy longwave radiation and longwave enhancement are assessed using measurements from forest stands located within perennially snow‐covered regions. These forest stands, of varying canopy density, cover the range of boreal plant functional types in CLM4.5. CLM4.5 is found to overestimate the diurnal range of subcanopy longwave radiation and longwave enhancement, and simulation errors increase with decreasing cloudiness and increasing vegetation density. Implementation of a parameterization of heat storage by biomass reduces simulation errors but only marginally affects the amplitude of diurnal ranges. These results reaffirm previous findings that simulation of subcanopy longwave radiation can be improved by partitioning the vegetation canopy into two layers. Moreover, this study reveals the variations of simulation errors across meteorological conditions and vegetation density, the latter of which is the most important parameter for longwave enhancement independent of vegetation type.
Key Points
Simulation of subcanopy LWR by CLM4.5 was assessed during snowmelt season at forest stands with varying vegetation density and types
Diurnal ranges of subcanopy LWR and LW enhancement are overestimated by CLM4.5 with errors increasing for clearer sky and denser vegetation
Comparison to SNOWPACK suggests addition of a two‐layer vegetation effect is necessary to reduce overestimated range of LW enhancement
Effective public policy requires information on the prevalence of overweight and obesity.
We determined changes in the population prevalence of overweight and obesity among young Australians (aged ...7-15 y) from 1969 to 1985 to 1997.
Data from 5 independent population surveys were analyzed: the Australian Youth Fitness Survey, 1969; the Australian Health and Fitness Survey, 1985; the South Australian Schools Fitness and Physical Activity Survey, 1997; the New South Wales Schools Fitness and Physical Activity Survey, 1997; and the Health of Young Victorians Study, 1997. Measured body mass index was used as the index of adiposity, and recently published body mass index cutoff values were used to categorize each subject as nonoverweight, overweight, obese, or either overweight or obese.
For 1985-1997, the population prevalence of overweight increased by 60-70%, obesity increased 2-4-fold, and the combined overweight and obesity categories doubled. The findings were consistent across data sets and between the sexes. For 1969-1985, there was no change in the prevalence of overweight or obesity among girls, but among boys the prevalence of overweight increased by 35%, the prevalence of obesity trebled, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity combined increased by 60%.
The data show that in 1985-1997, the prevalence of overweight and obesity combined doubled and that of obesity trebled among young Australians, but the increase over the previous 16 y was far smaller. These results should increase our sense of urgency in identifying and implementing effective responses to this major threat to public health.
Facial allotransplantation replaces missing facial structures with anatomically identical tissues, providing desired functional, esthetic, and psychosocial benefits far superior to those of ...conventional methods. On the basis of very encouraging initial results, it is likely that more procedures will be performed in the near future. Typical candidates have extremely complex vascular anatomy due to severe injury and/or multiple prior reconstructive attempts; thus, each procedure is uniquely determined by the defects and vascular anatomy of the candidate. We detail CT angiography vascular mapping, noting the clinical relevance of the imaging, the angiosome concept and noninvasive delineation of the key vessels, and current controversies related to the vascular anastomoses.
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