Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate whether chronic heart failure (HF) therapy guided by concentrations of amino-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is superior to ...standard of care (SOC) management. Background It is unclear whether standard HF treatment plus a goal of reducing NT-proBNP concentrations improves outcomes compared with standard management alone. Methods In a prospective single-center trial, 151 subjects with HF due to left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction were randomized to receive either standard HF care plus a goal to reduce NT-proBNP concentrations ≤1,000 pg/ml or SOC management. The primary endpoint was total cardiovascular events between groups compared using generalized estimating equations. Secondary endpoints included effects of NT-proBNP–guided care on patient quality of life as well as cardiac structure and function, assessed with echocardiography. Results Through a mean follow-up period of 10 ± 3 months, a significant reduction in the primary endpoint of total cardiovascular events was seen in the NT-proBNP arm compared with SOC (58 events vs. 100 events, p = 0.009; logistic odds for events 0.44, p = 0.02); Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated significant differences in time to first event, favoring NT-proBNP–guided care (p = 0.03). No age interaction was found, with elderly patients benefitting similarly from NT-proBNP–guided care as younger subjects. Compared with SOC, NT-proBNP–guided patients had greater improvements in quality of life, demonstrated greater relative improvements in LV ejection fraction, and had more significant improvements in both LV end-systolic and -diastolic volume indexes. Conclusions In patients with HF due to LV systolic dysfunction, NT-proBNP–guided therapy was superior to SOC, with reduced event rates, improved quality of life, and favorable effects on cardiac remodeling. (Use of NT-proBNP Testing to Guide Heart Failure Therapy in the Outpatient Setting; NCT00351390 )
Background and Aims There are limited data on learning curves and competence in ERCP. By using a standardized data collection tool, we aimed to prospectively define learning curves and measure ...competence among advanced endoscopy trainees (AETs) by using cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis. Methods AETs were evaluated by attending endoscopists starting with the 26th hands-on ERCP examination and then every ERCP examination during the 12-month training period. A standardized ERCP competency assessment tool (using a 4-point scoring system) was used to grade the examination. CUSUM analysis was applied to produce learning curves for individual technical and cognitive components of ERCP performance (success defined as a score of 1, acceptable and unacceptable failures p1 of 10% and 20%, respectively). Sensitivity analyses varying p1 and by using a less-stringent definition of success were performed. Results Five AETs were included with a total of 1049 graded ERCPs (mean ± SD, 209.8 ± 91.6/AET). The majority of cases were performed for a biliary indication (80%). The overall and native papilla allowed cannulation times were 3.1 ± 3.6 and 5.7 ± 4, respectively. Overall learning curves demonstrated substantial variability for individual technical and cognitive endpoints. Although nearly all AETs achieved competence in overall cannulation, none achieved competence for cannulation in cases with a native papilla. Sensitivity analyses increased the proportion of AETs who achieved competence. Conclusion This study demonstrates that there is substantial variability in ERCP learning curves among AETs. A specific case volume does not ensure competence, especially for native papilla cannulation.
Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive accuracy of conventional cardiovascular risk factors for incident heart failure and atrial fibrillation, and the added benefit of ...multiple biomarkers reflecting diverse pathophysiological pathways. Background Heart failure and atrial fibrillation are interrelated cardiac diseases associated with substantial morbidity and mortality and increasing incidence. Data on prediction and prevention of these diseases in healthy individuals are limited. Methods In 5,187 individuals from the community-based MDCS (Malmö Diet and Cancer Study), we studied the performance of conventional risk factors and 6 biomarkers including midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), midregional pro-adrenomedullin, cystatin C, C-reactive protein (CRP), and copeptin. Results During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 112 individuals were diagnosed with heart failure and 284 individuals with atrial fibrillation. NT-proBNP (hazard ratio HR: 1.63 per SD, 95% confidence interval CI: 1.29 to 2.06, p < 0.001), CRP (HR: 1.57 per SD, 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.94, p < 0.001), and MR-proANP (HR: 1.26 per SD, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.56, p = 0.03) predicted incident heart failure independently of conventional risk factors and other biomarkers. MR-proANP (HR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.42 to 1.84, p < 0.001) and CRP (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.34, p = 0.01) independently predicted atrial fibrillation. Addition of biomarkers to conventional risk factors improved c -statistics from 0.815 to 0.842 for heart failure and from 0.732 to 0.753 for atrial fibrillation and the integrated discrimination improvement for both diseases (p < 0.001). Net reclassification improvement (NRI) with biomarkers was observed in 22% of individuals for heart failure (NRI, p < 0.001) and in 7% for atrial fibrillation (NRI, p = 0.06), mainly due to up-classification of individuals who developed disease (heart failure: 29%, atrial fibrillation: 19%). Addition of CRP to natriuretic peptides did not improve discrimination or reclassification. Conclusions Conventional cardiovascular risk factors predict incident heart failure and atrial fibrillation with reasonable accuracy in middle-age individuals free from disease. Natriuretic peptides, but not other biomarkers, improve discrimination modestly for both diseases above and beyond conventional risk factors and substantially improve risk classification for heart failure.
Background We investigated whether circulating concentrations of soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor–15 (GDF-15), and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) are associated with incident atrial ...fibrillation (AF) and whether these biomarkers improve current risk prediction models including AF risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods We studied the relation between soluble ST2, GDF-15, and hsTnI and development of AF in Framingham Heart Study participants without prevalent AF. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to examine the relation of incident AF during a 10-year follow-up period with each biomarker. We adjusted for standard AF clinical risk factors, BNP, and CRP. Results The mean age of the 3,217 participants was 59 ± 10 years, and 54% were women. During a 10-year follow-up, 242 participants developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted models, GDF-15 and hsTnI were associated with risk of incident AF; however, after including the AF risk factors and BNP and CRP, only hsTnI was significantly associated with AF (hazard ratio per 1 SD of loge hsTnI, 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.26, P = .045). The c statistic of the base model including AF risk factors, BNP, and CRP was 0.803 (95% CI 0.777-0.830) and did not improve by adding individual or all 3 biomarkers. None of the discrimination and reclassification statistics were significant compared with the base model. Conclusion In a community-based cohort, circulating hsTnI concentrations were associated with incident AF. None of the novel biomarkers evaluated improved AF risk discrimination or reclassification beyond standard clinical AF risk factors and biomarkers.
Higher left ventricular (LV) mass, wall thickness, and internal dimension are associated with increased heart failure (HF) risk. Whether different LV hypertrophy patterns vary with respect to rates ...and types of HF incidence is unclear. In this study, 4,768 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 50 years, 56% women) were classified into 4 mutually exclusive LV hypertrophy pattern groups (normal, concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy) using American Society of Echocardiography–recommended thresholds of echocardiographic LV mass indexed to body surface area and relative wall thickness, and these groups were related to HF incidence. Whether risk for HF types (HF with reduced ejection fraction <45% vs preserved ejection fraction ≥45%) varied by hypertrophy pattern was then evaluated. On follow-up (mean 21 years), 458 participants (9.6%, 250 women) developed new-onset HF. The age- and gender-adjusted 20-year HF incidence increased from 6.96% in the normal left ventricle group to 8.67%, 13.38%, and 15.27% in the concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy groups, respectively. After adjustment for co-morbidities and incident myocardial infarction, LV hypertrophy patterns were associated with higher HF incidence relative to the normal left ventricle group (p = 0.0002); eccentric hypertrophy carried the greatest risk (hazard ratio HR 1.89, 95% confidence interval CI 1.41 to 2.54), followed by concentric hypertrophy (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.87). Participants with eccentric hypertrophy had a higher propensity for HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.37), whereas those with concentric hypertrophy were more prone to HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.51). In conclusion, in this large community-based sample, HF risk varied by LV hypertrophy pattern, with eccentric and concentric hypertrophy predisposing to HF with reduced and preserved ejection fraction, respectively.
Summary Background Atrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the ...condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers. Methods We assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45–95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic measurements (5152 participants, 7156 examinations) to reclassify the risk of atrial fibrillation and to assess whether these measurements improved risk prediction. Findings 457 (10%) of the 4764 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Age, sex, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, PR interval, clinically significant cardiac murmur, and heart failure were associated with atrial fibrillation and incorporated in a risk score (p<0·05, except body-mass index p=0·08), clinical model C statistic 0·78 (95% CI 0·76–0·80). Risk of atrial fibrillation in 10 years varied with age: more than 15% risk was recorded in 53 (1%) participants younger than 65 years, compared with 783 (27%) older than 65 years. Additional incorporation of echocardiographic measurements to enhance the risk prediction model only slightly improved the C statistic from 0·78 (95% CI 0·75–0·80) to 0·79 (0·77–0·82), p=0·005. Echocardiographic measurements did not improve risk reclassification (p=0·18). Interpretation From clinical factors readily accessible in primary care, our risk score could help to identify risk of atrial fibrillation for individuals in the community, assess technologies or markers for improvement of risk prediction, and target high-risk individuals for preventive measures. Funding US National Institutes of Health.
Basic and clinical studies have suggested that inflammation predisposes to atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the association of 12 circulating inflammatory biomarkers (i.e., C-reactive protein, ...fibrinogen, interleukin-6, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass and activity, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, myeloperoxidase, CD40 ligand, osteoprotegerin, P-selectin, and tumor necrosis factor receptor II) with incident AF in 2863 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 60.7 years, SD = 9.4, 55% women). During follow-up (median 6 years), 148 participants (43% women) developed incident AF. In the multivariable proportional hazards models, the inflammatory biomarker panel was associated with incident AF (p = 0.03). With stepwise selection (p <0.01 for entry and retention), log-transformed osteoprotegerin was associated with incident AF (hazard ratio per SD 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.56, p = 0.006). Adjusting for interim myocardial infarction or heart failure attenuated the association between osteoprotegerin and incident AF (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.43, p = 0.09). In conclusion, circulating osteoprotegerin concentration was significantly associated with incident AF in our community-based sample, possibly mediated by interim cardiovascular events.
Objective Spinal cord ischemia (SCI) is a devastating but potentially preventable complication of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR). The purpose of this analysis was to determine what ...factors predict SCI after TEVAR. Methods All TEVAR procedures at a single institution were reviewed for patient characteristics, prior aortic repair history, aortic centerline of flow analysis, and procedural characteristics. SCI was defined as any lower extremity neurologic deficit that was not attributable to an intracranial process or peripheral neuropathy. Forty-three patient and procedural variables were evaluated individually for association with SCI. Those with the strongest relationships to SCI ( P < .1) were included in a multivariable logistic regression model, and a stepwise variable elimination algorithm was bootstrapped to derive a best subset of predictors from this model. Results From 2002 to 2013, 741 patients underwent TEVAR for various indications, and 68 (9.2%) developed SCI (permanent: n = 38; 5.1%). Because of the lack of adequate imaging for centerline analysis, 586 patients (any SCI, n = 43; 7.4%) were subsequently analyzed. Patients experiencing SCI after TEVAR were older (SCI, 72 ± 11 years; no SCI, 65 ± 15 years; P < .0001) and had significantly higher rates of multiple cardiovascular risk factors. The stepwise selection procedure identified five variables as the most important predictors of SCI: age (odds ratio OR multiplies by 1.3 per 10 years; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.9-1.8, P = .06), aortic coverage length (OR multiplies by 1.3 per 5 cm; CI, 1.1-1.6; P = .002), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 1.9; CI, 0.9-4.1; P = .1), chronic renal insufficiency (creatinine concentration ≥ 1.6 mg/dL; OR, 1.9; CI, 0.8-4.2; P = .1), and hypertension (defined as chart history or medication; OR, 6.4; CI, 2.6-18; P < .0001). A logistic regression model with just these five covariates had excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .83) and calibration ( χ2 = 9.8; P = .28). Conclusions This analysis generated a simple model that reliably predicts SCI after TEVAR. This clinical tool can assist decision-making about when to proceed with TEVAR, guide discussions about intervention risk, and help determine when maneuvers to mitigate SCI risk should be implemented.
The purpose of this study was to describe the prevalence and prognosis of HF stages in the community; to evaluate if preclinical HF stages are characterized by elevation of pro-inflammatory ...(C-reactive protein), neurohormonal activation (B-type natriuretic peptide, renin and aldosterone), and cardiac stress biomarkers (high-sensitivity troponin I, ST-2, and growth differentiation factor-15).
The American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology heart failure (HF) classification has 3 stages. Knowledge regarding the community burden of HF stages is limited, and data on the biomarker profile associated with HF stages are scarce, although higher concentrations of certain biomarkers are associated with preclinical HF.
We evaluated 6,770 participants (mean age 51 years; 54% women) from the Framingham Study, defining 4 stages: 1) healthy: no risk factors; 2) stage A: presence of HF risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, coronary artery disease), no cardiac structural/functional abnormality; 3) stage B: presence of prior myocardial infarction, valvular disease, left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction, LV hypertrophy, regional wall motion abnormality, or LV enlargement; 4) stage C/D: prevalent HF.
The prevalence of HF stages A and B were 36.5% and 24.2%, respectively, rising with age (odds ratio: 1.70 95% confidence interval: 1.64 to 1.77 per decade increment). In age- and sex-adjusted models, we observed a gradient of increasing biomarker levels across HF stages (p < 0.05; n = 3,416). Adjusting for age and sex, mortality rose across HF stages (232 deaths, mean follow-up 7 years), with 2- and 8-fold mortality risks for stages B and C/D, respectively, compared with healthy.
Approximately 60% of our sample has preclinical HF, and those in stage B had higher concentrations of HF biomarkers and experienced a substantial mortality risk.
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