Time-series data collected over a four-year period were used to characterize patterns of abundance for pelagic fishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) before (2007-2009) and after (2010) the ...Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Four numerically dominant pelagic species (blackfin tuna, blue marlin, dolphinfish, and sailfish) were included in our assessment, and larval density of each species was lower in 2010 than any of the three years prior to the oil spill, although larval abundance in 2010 was often statistically similar to other years surveyed. To assess potential overlap between suitable habitat of pelagic fish larvae and surface oil, generalized additive models (GAMs) were developed to evaluate the influence of ocean conditions on the abundance of larvae from 2007-2009. Explanatory variables from GAMs were then linked to environmental data from 2010 to predict the probability of occurrence for each species. The spatial extent of surface oil overlapped with early life habitat of each species, possibly indicating that the availability of high quality habitat was affected by the DH oil spill. Shifts in the distribution of spawning adults is another factor known to influence the abundance of larvae, and the spatial occurrence of a model pelagic predator (blue marlin) was characterized over the same four-year period using electronic tags. The spatial extent of oil coincided with areas used by adult blue marlin from 2007-2009, and the occurrence of blue marlin in areas impacted by the DH oil spill was lower in 2010 relative to pre-spill years.
The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute ...Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.
The feeding ecology of two reef fishes associated with artificial reefs in the northwest Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was examined using gut contents and natural stable isotopes. Reefs were divided into ...three regions (east, central, west) across an east to west gradient of increasing reef complexity and salinity. Gray triggerfish (Balistes capriscus) primarily consumed reef-associated prey (xanthid crabs, bivalves, barnacles) and pelagic gastropods, while red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus) diets were mainly comprised of non-reef prey (stomatopods, fishes, portunid crabs). Natural stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C), nitrogen (δ15N), and sulfur (δ34S) were measured in consumer muscle tissue as well as potential primary producers. Gray triggerfish occupied a lower trophic position than red snapper, with lower δ13C and δ15N values across all size classes and regions, and generally higher δ34S values. Red snapper had a smaller range of stable isotope values and corrected standard ellipse areas across all size classes and regions, indicating a smaller isotopic niche. Contribution estimates of particulate organic matter (26 to 54%) and benthic microalgae (BMA, 47 to 74%) for both species were similar, with BMA contributions greater across all three size classes (juveniles, sub-adults, adults) of red snapper and all but the juvenile size class for gray triggerfish. Species gut contents and stable isotopes differed by region, with fishes consuming more crabs in the east region and more gastropods in the central and west regions. δ13C and δ15N values generally decreased from east to west, while δ34S increased across this gradient. Results highlight species-specific feeding differences associated with artificial reefs, where gray triggerfish may be more dependent on the reef structure for foraging opportunities. In addition, results offer further information on the integral role of BMA in primary production at nearshore artificial reefs.
In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. ...Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R₀. Without self-isolation, when R₀ = 2.5, treatment of critically ill individuals at the outbreak peak would require 3.8 times more ICU beds than exist in the United States. Self-isolation by 20% of cases 24 h after symptom onset would delay and flatten the outbreak trajectory, reducing the number of ICU beds needed at the peak by 48.4% (interquartile range 46.4–50.3%), although still exceeding existing capacity. When R₀ = 2, twice as many ICU beds would be required at the peak of outbreak in the absence of self-isolation. In this scenario, the proportional impact of self-isolation within 24 h on reducing the peak number of ICU beds is substantially higher at 73.5% (interquartile range 71.4–75.3%). Our estimates underscore the inadequacy of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak. Policies that encourage self-isolation, such as paid sick leave, may delay the epidemic peak, giving a window of time that could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand hospital capacity.
Understanding biological and environmental factors that influence movement behaviors and population connectivity of highly migratory fishes is essential for cooperative international management and ...conservation of exploited populations, like bluefin tuna. Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis (PBT) spawn in the western Pacific Ocean and then juveniles disperse to foraging grounds across the North Pacific. Several techniques have been used to characterize the distribution and movement of PBT, but few methods can provide complete records across ontogeny from larvae to adult in individual fish. Here, otolith biominerals of large PBT collected from the western, eastern, and south Pacific Ocean, were analyzed for a suite of trace elements across calcified/proteinaceous growth zones to investigate patterns across ontogeny. Three element:Ca ratios, Li:Ca, Mg:Ca, and Mn:Ca displayed enrichment in the otolith core, then decreased to low stable levels after age 1-2 years. Thermal and metabolic physiologies, common diets, or ambient water chemistry likely influenced otolith crystallization, protein content, and elemental incorporation in early life. Although similar patterns were also exhibited for otolith Sr:Ca, Ba:Ca and Zn:Ca in the first year, variability in these elements differed significantly after age-2 and in the otolith edges by capture region, suggesting ocean-specific environmental factors or growth-related physiologies affected otolith mineralization across ontogeny.
The tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) is globally distributed with established coastal and open-ocean movement patterns in many portions of its range. While all life stages of tiger sharks are known to ...occur in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), variability in habitat use and movement patterns over ontogeny have never been quantified in this large marine ecosystem. To address this data gap we fitted 56 tiger sharks with Smart Position and Temperature transmitting tags between 2010 and 2018 and examined seasonal and spatial distribution patterns across the GoM. Additionally, we analyzed overlap of core habitats (i.e., 50% kernel density estimates) among individuals relative to large benthic features (oil and gas platforms, natural banks, bathymetric breaks). Our analyses revealed significant ontogenetic and seasonal differences in distribution patterns as well as across-shelf (i.e., regional) and sex-linked variability in movement rates. Presumably sub-adult and adult sharks achieved significantly higher movement rates and used off-shelf deeper habitats at greater proportions than juvenile sharks, particularly during the fall and winter seasons. Further, female maximum rate of movement was higher than males when accounting for size. Additionally, we found evidence of core regions encompassing the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration designated Habitat Areas of Particular Concern (i.e., shelf-edge banks) during cooler months, particularly by females, as well as 2,504 oil and gas platforms. These data provide a baseline for future assessments of environmental impacts, such as climate variability or oil spills, on tiger shark movements and distribution in the region. Future research may benefit from combining alternative tracking tools, such as acoustic telemetry and genetic approaches, which can facilitate long-term assessment of the species' movement dynamics and better elucidate the ecological significance of the core habitats identified here.
Abstract
Background
Global vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 ...vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States.
Methods
We developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States.
Results
Vaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval CrI: 4.3%–5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%–9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%–62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%–66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%–68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%–73.1%), respectively, across the same period.
Conclusions
Our results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.
Vaccination with a 95% efficacy against disease could substantially mitigate future attack rates, hospitalizations, and deaths, even if only adults are vaccinated. Nonpharmaceutical interventions remain an important part of outbreak response as vaccines are distributed over time.
For COVID-19, it is vital to understand if quarantines shorter than 14 days can be equally effective with judiciously deployed testing. Here, we develop a mathematical model that quantifies the ...probability of post-quarantine transmission incorporating testing into travel quarantine, quarantine of traced contacts with an unknown time of infection, and quarantine of cases with a known time of exposure. We find that testing on exit (or entry and exit) can reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortens quarantine by at most one day. In a real-world test of our theory applied to offshore oil rig employees, 47 positives were obtained with testing on entry and exit to quarantine, of which 16 had tested negative at entry; preventing an expected nine offshore transmission events that each could have led to outbreaks. We show that appropriately timed testing can make shorter quarantines effective.
To describe a governance framework for setting up an ambulatory care unit in the interventional radiology setting.
Guidance from NHS England, Getting it right first time, The kings fund, NHS ...modernisation agency, NHS Improvement, The General Medical Council, The Royal college of Radiologists, The British society of interventional radiology, The Care Quality Commission, and the British Association of Day Surgery was reviewed and referenced as evidence for the governance pathway for day-case patients.
A complete pathway for ambulatory care of patients in interventional radiology from referral to discharge is outlined with a discussion of examples of quality and safety.
Successful implementation of an ambulatory care unit in interventional radiology requires a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach that links in with the NHS improvements ethos for more day-case procedures.
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