Polygenic scores (PGS) have been widely used to predict disease risk using variants identified from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). To date, most GWAS have been conducted in populations of ...European ancestry, which limits the use of GWAS-derived PGS in non-European ancestry populations. Here, we derive a theoretical model of the relative accuracy (RA) of PGS across ancestries. We show through extensive simulations that the RA of PGS based on genome-wide significant SNPs can be predicted accurately from modelling linkage disequilibrium (LD), minor allele frequencies (MAF), cross-population correlations of causal SNP effects and heritability. We find that LD and MAF differences between ancestries can explain between 70 and 80% of the loss of RA of European-based PGS in African ancestry for traits like body mass index and type 2 diabetes. Our results suggest that causal variants underlying common genetic variation identified in European ancestry GWAS are mostly shared across continents.
Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of medication use may contribute to understanding of disease etiology, could generate new leads relevant for drug discovery and can be used to quantify future ...risk of medication taking. Here, we conduct GWASs of self-reported medication use from 23 medication categories in approximately 320,000 individuals from the UK Biobank. A total of 505 independent genetic loci that meet stringent criteria (P < 10
/23) for statistical significance are identified. We investigate the implications of these GWAS findings in relation to biological mechanism, potential drug target identification and genetic risk stratification of disease. Amongst the medication-associated genes are 16 known therapeutic-effect target genes for medications from 9 categories. Two of the medication classes studied are for disorders that have not previously been subject to large GWAS (hypothyroidism and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease).
Accurate prediction of an individual's phenotype from their DNA sequence is one of the great promises of genomics and precision medicine. We extend a powerful individual-level data Bayesian multiple ...regression model (BayesR) to one that utilises summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), SBayesR. In simulation and cross-validation using 12 real traits and 1.1 million variants on 350,000 individuals from the UK Biobank, SBayesR improves prediction accuracy relative to commonly used state-of-the-art summary statistics methods at a fraction of the computational resources. Furthermore, using summary statistics for variants from the largest GWAS meta-analysis (n ≈ 700, 000) on height and BMI, we show that on average across traits and two independent data sets that SBayesR improves prediction R
by 5.2% relative to LDpred and by 26.5% relative to clumping and p value thresholding.
Many traits are subject to assortative mating, with recent molecular genetic findings confirming longstanding theoretical predictions that assortative mating induces long range dependence across ...causal variants. However, all marker-based heritability estimators implicitly assume mating is random. We provide mathematical and simulation-based evidence demonstrating that both method-of-moments and likelihood-based estimators are biased in the presence of assortative mating and derive corrected heritability estimators for traits subject to assortment. Finally, we demonstrate that the empirical patterns of estimates across methods and sample sizes for real traits subject to assortative mating are congruent with expected assortative mating-induced biases. For example, marker-based heritability estimates for height are 14% - 23% higher than corrected estimates using UK Biobank data.
Detection of recent natural selection is a challenging problem in population genetics. Here we introduce the singleton density score (SDS), a method to infer very recent changes in allele frequencies ...from contemporary genome sequences. Applied to data from the UK10K Project, SDS reflects allele frequency changes in the ancestors of modern Britons during the past ~2OOO to 3000 years. We see strong signals of selection at lactase and the major histocompatibility complex, and in favor of blond hair and blue eyes. For polygenic adaptation, we find that recent selection for increased height has driven allele frequency shifts across most of the genome. Moreover, we identify shifts associated with other complex traits, suggesting that polygenic adaptation has played a pervasive role in shaping genotypic and phenotypic variation in modern humans.
Despite rapid progress in characterizing the role of host genetics in SARS-Cov-2 infection, there is limited understanding of genes and pathways that contribute to COVID-19. Here, we integrate a ...genome-wide association study of COVID-19 hospitalization (7,885 cases and 961,804 controls from COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative) with mRNA expression, splicing, and protein levels (n = 18,502). We identify 27 genes related to inflammation and coagulation pathways whose genetically predicted expression was associated with COVID-19 hospitalization. We functionally characterize the 27 genes using phenome- and laboratory-wide association scans in Vanderbilt Biobank (n = 85,460) and identified coagulation-related clinical symptoms, immunologic, and blood-cell-related biomarkers. We replicate these findings across trans-ethnic studies and observed consistent effects in individuals of diverse ancestral backgrounds in Vanderbilt Biobank, pan-UK Biobank, and Biobank Japan. Our study highlights and reconfirms putative causal genes impacting COVID-19 severity and symptomology through the host inflammatory response.
Abstract
More than one in three adults worldwide is either overweight or obese. Epidemiological studies indicate that the location and distribution of excess fat, rather than general adiposity, are ...more informative for predicting risk of obesity sequelae, including cardiometabolic disease and cancer. We performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of body fat distribution, measured by waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) adjusted for body mass index (WHRadjBMI), and identified 463 signals in 346 loci. Heritability and variant effects were generally stronger in women than men, and we found approximately one-third of all signals to be sexually dimorphic. The 5% of individuals carrying the most WHRadjBMI-increasing alleles were 1.62 times more likely than the bottom 5% to have a WHR above the thresholds used for metabolic syndrome. These data, made publicly available, will inform the biology of body fat distribution and its relationship with disease.
Understanding how natural selection has shaped genetic architecture of complex traits is of importance in medical and evolutionary genetics. Bayesian methods have been developed using ...individual-level GWAS data to estimate multiple genetic architecture parameters including selection signature. Here, we present a method (SBayesS) that only requires GWAS summary statistics. We analyse data for 155 complex traits (n = 27k-547k) and project the estimates onto those obtained from evolutionary simulations. We estimate that, on average across traits, about 1% of human genome sequence are mutational targets with a mean selection coefficient of ~0.001. Common diseases, on average, show a smaller number of mutational targets and have been under stronger selection, compared to other traits. SBayesS analyses incorporating functional annotations reveal that selection signatures vary across genomic regions, among which coding regions have the strongest selection signature and are enriched for both the number of associated variants and the magnitude of effect sizes.
The genetic contribution to psychiatric disorders is observed through the increased rates of disorders in the relatives of those diagnosed with disorders. These increased rates are observed to be ...nonspecific; for example, children of those with schizophrenia have increased rates of schizophrenia but also a broad range of other psychiatric diagnoses. While many factors contribute to risk, epidemiological evidence suggests that the genetic contribution carries the highest risk burden. The patterns of inheritance are consistent with a polygenic architecture of many contributing risk loci. The genetic studies of the past decade have provided empirical evidence identifying thousands of DNA variants associated with psychiatric disorders. Here, we describe how these latest results are consistent with observations from epidemiology. We provide an R tool (CHARRGe) to calculate genetic parameters from epidemiological parameters and vice versa. We discuss how the single nucleotide polymorphism–based estimates of heritability and genetic correlation relate to those estimated from family records.
We develop a Bayesian mixed linear model that simultaneously estimates single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based heritability, polygenicity (proportion of SNPs with nonzero effects), and the ...relationship between SNP effect size and minor allele frequency for complex traits in conventionally unrelated individuals using genome-wide SNP data. We apply the method to 28 complex traits in the UK Biobank data (N = 126,752) and show that on average, 6% of SNPs have nonzero effects, which in total explain 22% of phenotypic variance. We detect significant (P < 0.05/28) signatures of natural selection in the genetic architecture of 23 traits, including reproductive, cardiovascular, and anthropometric traits, as well as educational attainment. The significant estimates of the relationship between effect size and minor allele frequency in complex traits are consistent with a model of negative (or purifying) selection, as confirmed by forward simulation. We conclude that negative selection acts pervasively on the genetic variants associated with human complex traits.
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