The contributions of environmental DNA to ecology are reviewed, focusing on diet, trophic interactions, species distributions and biodiversity assessment. Environmental DNA has the potential to ...dramatically improve quantitative studies in these fields. Achieving this, however, will require large investments of time and money into developing the relevant databases, models, and software.
The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that ...global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961-1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961-1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.
Sympatric species are expected to minimize competition by partitioning resources, especially when these are limited. Herbivores inhabiting the High Arctic in winter are a prime example of a situation ...where food availability is anticipated to be low, and thus reduced diet overlap is expected. We present here the first assessment of diet overlap of high arctic lemmings during winter based on DNA metabarcoding of feces. In contrast to previous analyses based on microhistology, we found that the diets of both collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) on Bylot Island were dominated by Salix while mosses, which were significantly consumed only by the brown lemming, were a relatively minor food item. The most abundant plant taxon, Cassiope tetragona, which alone composes more than 50% of the available plant biomass, was not detected in feces and can thus be considered to be non-food. Most plant taxa that were identified as food items were consumed in proportion to their availability and none were clearly selected for. The resulting high diet overlap, together with a lack of habitat segregation, indicates a high potential for resource competition between the two lemming species. However, Salix is abundant in the winter habitats of lemmings on Bylot Island and the non-Salix portion of the diets differed between the two species. Also, lemming grazing impact on vegetation during winter in the study area is negligible. Hence, it seems likely that the high potential for resource competition predicted between these two species did not translate into actual competition. This illustrates that even in environments with low primary productivity food resources do not necessarily generate strong competition among herbivores.
Aim: Concerns over how global change will influence species distributions, in conjunction with increased emphasis on understanding niche dynamics in evolutionary and community contexts, highlight the ...growing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences between or within taxa. We propose a statistical framework to describe and compare environmental niches from occurrence and spatial environmental data. Location: Europe, North America and South America. Methods: The framework applies kernel smoothers to densities of species occurrence in gridded environmental space to calculate metrics of niche overlap and test hypotheses regarding niche conservatism. We use this framework and simulated species with pre-defined distributions and amounts of niche overlap to evaluate several ordination and species distribution modelling techniques for quantifying niche overlap. We illustrate the approach with data on two well-studied invasive species. Results: We show that niche overlap can be accurately detected with the framework when variables driving the distributions are known. The method is robust to known and previously undocumented biases related to the dependence of species occurrences on the frequency of environmental conditions that occur across geographical space. The use of a kernel smoother makes the process of moving from geographical space to multivariate environmental space independent of both sampling effort and arbitrary choice of resolution in environmental space. However, the use of ordination and species distribution model techniques for selecting, combining and weighting variables on which niche overlap is calculated provide contrasting results. Main conclusions: The framework meets the increasing need for robust methods to quantify niche differences. It is appropriate for studying niche differences between species, subspecies or intra-specific lineages that differ in their geographical distributions. Alternatively, it can be used to measure the degree to which the environmental niche of a species or intra-specific lineage has changed over time.
The Barents Sea is a subarctic shelf sea which has experienced major changes during the past decades. From ecological time-series, three different food-web configurations, reflecting successive ...shifts of dominance of pelagic fish, demersal fish, and zooplankton, as well as varying trophic control have been identified in the last decades. This covers a relatively short time-period as available ecological time-series are often relatively short. As we lack information for prior time-periods, we use a chance and necessity model to investigate if there are other possible configurations of the Barents Sea food-web than those observed in the ecological time-series, and if this food-web is characterized by a persistent trophic control. We perform food-web simulations using the Non-Deterministic Network Dynamic model (NDND) for the Barents Sea, identify food-web configurations and compare those to historical reconstructions of food-web dynamics. Biomass configurations fall into four major types and three trophic pathways. Reconstructed data match one of the major biomass configurations but is characterized by a different trophic pathway than most of the simulated configurations. The simulated biomass displays fluctuations between bottom-up and top-down trophic control over time rather than persistent trophic control. Our results show that the configurations we have reconstructed are strongly overlapping with our simulated configurations, though they represent only a subset of the possible configurations of the Barents Sea food-web.
Recently accumulated evidence has documented a climate impact on the demography and dynamics of single species, yet the impact at the community level is poorly understood. Here, we show that in ...Svalbard in the high Arctic, extreme weather events synchronize population fluctuations across an entire community of resident vertebrate herbivores and cause lagged correlations with the secondary consumer, the arctic fox. This synchronization is mainly driven by heavy rain on snow that encapsulates the vegetation in ice and blocks winter forage availability for herbivores. Thus, indirect and bottom-up climate forcing drives the population dynamics across all overwintering vertebrates. Icing is predicted to become more frequent in the circumpolar Arctic and may therefore strongly affect terrestrial ecosystem characteristics.
We assessed direct and indirect effects of snow cover on litter decomposition and litter nitrogen release in alpine tundra. Direct effects are driven by the direct influence of snow cover on ...edaphoclimatic conditions, whereas indirect effects result from the filtering effect of snow cover on species' abundance and traits. We compared the in situ decomposition of leaf litter from four dominant plant species (two graminoids, two shrubs) at early and late snowmelt locations using a two-year litter-bag experiment. A seasonal experiment was also performed to estimate the relative importance of winter and summer decomposition. We found that growth form (graminoids vs. shrubs) are the main determinants of decomposition rate. Direct effect of snow cover exerted only a secondary influence. Whatever the species, early snowmelt locations showed consistently reduced decomposition rates and delayed final stages of N mineralization. This lower decomposition rate was associated with freezing soil temperatures during winter. The results suggest that a reduced snow cover may have a weak and immediate direct effect on litter decomposition rates and N availability in alpine tundra. A much larger impact on nutrient cycling is likely to be mediated by longer term changes in the relative abundance of lignin-rich dwarf shrubs.
Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of ...climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D², +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.
Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic ...environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.
•Rapid climate change challenges how we monitor and manage ecosystems.•Ecosystem-based monitoring is guided by models that are iteratively/adaptively improved by new data, analytical methods and ...technology.•Assessments of climate change impacts are strengthened by monitoring designs that include spatial gradients and slow-to-fast processes.•Societal relevance is improved by including stakeholder needs and management interventions in the monitoring protocol.•New technologies and ‘big data’ are helpful, but not a panacea.
We propose how ecosystem-based monitoring of climate impacts can be made efficient for both science and management drawing on our experience from Climate-ecological Observatory for Arctic Tundra (COAT). Conceptual food web models are used to derive expected direct and indirect impact-pathways from climate change and human interventions on key species and ecosystem functions. We stress that models should serve the same fundamental role in ecological monitoring as in any other scientific activity; that is, both for a priori guiding monitoring designs, and a posteriori guiding data analyses. Essential elements of the monitoring design are management actions, replicated spatial climatic gradients and temporal resolution and extents that target both fast and slow processes. Ecosystem-based monitoring should be dynamic/adaptive in the sense that models and monitoring designs are iteratively improved by new empirical results, new technologies and the evolving needs of stakeholders.
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