The low correlation between cyclical unemployment and productivity over the post-war period hides a large sign switch in the mid-1980s: from significantly negative the correlation became ...significantly positive. Using a search model of unemployment with nominal rigidities and variable labor effort, I show that technology shocks can generate a positive unemployment-productivity correlation whereas non-technology shocks (i.e. aggregate demand shocks) tend to do the opposite. In this context, I identify two events that can quantitatively explain the increase in the correlation: (i) a sharp drop in the volatility of non-technology shocks in the mid-1980s, and (ii) a decline in the response of productivity to non-technology shocks, which from procyclical became acyclical in the last 25 years.
► Correlation between labor productivity and unemployment switched sign in the mid-1980s ► Similar pattern for other labor input and productivity measures ► Search model with nominal rigidities and variable labor effort gives an explanation ► Decline in volatility of non-technology shocks and in cyclicality of productivity ► Perhaps the result of more flexible labor market
We quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, ...we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit‐financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs.
A brilliant student, an accomplished lawyer, a reluctant
politician, a surprise presidential candidate who was
controversially elected and incessantly criticised; Levy Mwanawasa
posthumously enjoys ...high approval ratings. As if he were a prophet,
he told some of his confidants that Zambians would only appreciate
him when he was gone. Who was he? What did he stand for? What did
he set out to achieve in his presidency? Howdy the people he worked
wit judge him? Where did he succeed? Where did he fail? What could
he have done differently or better? What sort of legacy did he
bequeath Zambia?
A brilliant student, an accomplished lawyer, a reluctant
politician, a surprise presidential candidate who was
controversially elected and incessantly criticised; Levy Mwanawasa
posthumously enjoys high approval ratings. As if he were a prophet,
he told some of his confidants that Zambians would only appreciate
him when he was gone. Who was he? What did he stand for? What did
he set out to achieve in his presidency? Howdy the people he worked
wit judge him? Where did he succeed? Where did he fail? What could
he have done differently or better? What sort of legacy did he
bequeath Zambia?
Using a balanced approach, this study provides a comprehensive picture of the Arab sector over six decades. It examines what, when, and why the Arab minority in Israel chooses to either negotiate ...with the government or turn to protest or violence in order to change the status quo.
This article analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1–2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary ...substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a parametric context if the underlying disturbances are weakly autocorrelated. We also examine the possibility of a structural break in the data and the results indicate that there is a slight reduction in the degree of persistence after the break that is found to occur in the second quarter of 1978.
In Western countries, HRM strategies, policies and practices commonly develop in a gradual and incremental “evolutionary” way, but unforeseen domestic or external events can also engender ...“revolutionary” rapid changes. This paper reviews the major evolutionary and revolutionary changes arising from internal and external sources that Israel has experienced since the founding of the State in 1948, which stem primarily from the political, economic, societal and technological spheres. Israel's HRM has been required to take on new roles to adjust to these changes. A set of propositions derived from a 2-dimensional conceptual model associating source (internal/external) with nature (evolutionary/revolutionary) of change is put forward to account for HRM responses and operations in Israel.
Having had excess lending capacity at the beginning of 2008, by the end of the year International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending had increased and, in anticipation of a further increase in the demand ...for Fund assistance, arguments were being put forward for a substantial increase in IMF resources. Analysis of IMF lending over a protracted period of time reveals considerable volatility. Using both bivariate and multiple regression estimation, this paper investigates the determinants of IMF lending and examines the extent to which it is predictable. Although some significant relationships are discovered, many of them are unstable and time variant. This makes it difficult to predict IMF lending with any degree of confidence. The paper goes on to examine briefly the policy implications of unpredictability. It is critical of the ways in which the problem has been handled in the past and it offers what it argues is a preferable solution.
Village China Under Socialism and Reform offers a comprehensive account of rural life after the communist revolution, detailing villager involvement in political campaigns since the 1950s, ...agricultural production under the collective system, family farming and non-agricultural economy in the reform, and everyday life in the family and community. Li's rich examination draws on original documents from local agricultural collectives, newly accessible government archives, and his own fieldwork in Qin village of Jiangsu province to highlight the continuities in rural transformation. Firmly disagreeing with those who claim that recent developments in rural China represent a radical break with pre-reform sociopolitical practices and patterns of production, Li instead draws a clear history connecting the current situation to ecological, social, and institutional changes that have persisted from the collective era.
Kanost examines the play La Mujer Que Cayo del Cielo (The Woman Who Fell From the Sky) by Victor Hugo Rascon Banda. The focus of her study is the way Rascon Banda conveys to the audience the cultural ...isolation of a Mexican Indian woman lost in American society and falsely labeled as mentally ill.
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