What are the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics? We answer this question by estimating non-linear (Smooth-Transition) VARs with post-WWII U.S. data. The relevance of uncertainty ...shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear VARs in terms of (i) magnitude of the reaction of the unemployment rate to such shocks, and (ii) contribution to the variance of the prediction errors of unemployment at business cycle frequencies. The ability of different classes of DSGE models to replicate our results is discussed.
•We study the impact of uncertainty shocks on U.S. unemployment.•We identify uncertainty shocks in recessions by estimating a Smooth Transition VAR.•The impact of uncertainty shocks may be severely underestimated by linear models.•Uncertainty shocks are substantially more costly under recessions.•The contribution of uncertainty shocks is larger than that of monetary policy shocks.
Trade and Uncertainty Novy, Dennis; Taylor, Alan M.
The review of economics and statistics,
10/2020, Letnik:
102, Številka:
4
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We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order ...inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.
Blacks and whites in the United States adopt widely different parental behaviors, but the underlying causes of these differences are not well understood. This paper documents large-scale increases in ...cognitively stimulating parenting among southern black mothers who came of age in the period immediately following the civil rights movement. The total magnitude of these improvements was approximately 0.5 standard deviations between the 1957 and 1964 birth cohorts, while no significant trends occurred among blacks outside of the South or among whites from any region.
This book explores the memory of the war of independence in France as viewed by the former European settlers (pieds-noirs) and the harkis, those Algerians who worked for the French security forces. ...It examines how the memorial dynamics of the two groups are related both to each other and to other memories of the war.
This paper describes the evolution of the Federal Reserve's swap lines from their inception in 1962 as a mechanism to forestall claims on U.S gold reserves under Bretton Woods to a means of extending ...emergency dollar liquidity during the Great Recession. It describes the Federal Reserve's successes and failures and argues that swaps calm crisis situations by both supplementing foreign countries' dollar reserves and by signaling central-bank cooperation. The paper shows how swaps exposed the Federal Reserve to conditionality and raised fears that they bypassed the Congressional appropriations process.
In Memoriam: Sergio Ragi-Eis, MD McClung, Michael R.
Osteoporosis international,
06/2012, Letnik:
23, Številka:
6
Journal Article
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The osteoporosis community lost an important young member with the passing of Dr. Sergio Ragi-Eis on Feb 22, 2012. Ragi-Eis was a dynamic leader in the osteoporosis community in Brazil, and his ...influence extended far beyond the country's borders.
With over forty years of service to the United Nations, the last ten as Secretary-General, Kofi Annan has been at the centre of the major geopolitical events of our time. Drawing on his recollections ...of major figures from Tony Blair to George W.Bush, Yasser Arafat to Ehud Barak, Saddam Hussein to Nelson Mandela, Interventions offers a unique, behind-the-scenes view of global diplomacy during one of the most consequential eras in recent history. With eloquence and immediacy, Annan writes about the highs and lows of his years at the United Nations: from shuttle-diplomacy during crises such as Kosovo, Lebanon and Israel-Palestine to the wrenching battles over the Iraq War to the creation of the landmark Responsibility to Protect doctrine.
Uganda obtained independence from Britain in 1962, emerging as a poor agrarian economy dominated by agriculture. After a decade of economic and political stability, in 1971 Idi Amin led a military ...coup, initiating a period of political and economic chaos lasting until 1986. The National Resistance Movement led by Yoweri Museveni took power, and has remained the ruling political organization since. During the first two decades of rule, economic development was significantly hampered by civil war in the North. A period of relative peace has followed, even though improvements in peace and stability mask substantial governance concerns—rising inequality, youth unemployment, and corruption in public office. Against this background the recent performance of the Ugandan economy is impressive—GDP growth averaged 6.5 per cent per annum in the 1990s and 2000s. The growth experienced is simultaneously associated with impressive economic trends and depressing levels of industrial transformation.
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