Policy makers and academics frequently emphasize a positive link between city size and economic growth. The empirical literature on the relationship, however, is scarce and uses rough indicators for ...the size of a country's cities, while ignoring factors that are increasingly considered to shape this relationship. In this paper, we employ a panel of 113 countries between 1980 and 2010 to explore whether 1) there are certain city sizes that are growth enhancing and 2) how additional factors highlighted in the literature impact the city size/growth relationship. The results suggest a nonlinear relationship which is dependent on the country's size. In contrast to the prevailing view that large cities are growth‐inducing, for a majority of countries relatively small cities of up to 3 million inhabitants are more conducive to economic growth. A large share of the urban population in cities of more than 10 million inhabitants is only growth promoting in countries with an urban population of 28.5 million and more. In addition, the relationship is highly context‐dependent: a high share of industries that benefit from agglomeration economies, a well‐developed urban infrastructure, and an adequate level of governance effectiveness allow countries to take advantage of agglomeration benefits from larger cities.
We investigate the effect of welfare reform on intergenerational welfare participation, using mother-daughter pairs in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that a mother’s Aid to Families with ...Dependent Children/Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (AFDC/TANF) participation increased her daughter’s odds of adult participation in that program by roughly 25 percentage points or more, but that welfare reform attenuated this transmission by at least 50%. However, there is no diminution of transmission after welfare reform when we consider the wider safety net or other outcomes. Daughters who grew up with mothers on AFDC/TANF were no better off after reform, with substitution toward other welfare programs over generations.
What underlying long-term conditions set the stage for the Arab Spring? In recent decades, the Arab region has been characterized by an expansion in schooling coupled with weak labor market ...conditions. This pattern is especially pronounced in those countries that saw significant upheaval during the first year of the Arab Spring uprisings. We argue that the lack of adequate economic opportunities for an increasingly educated populace can help us understand episodes of regime instability such as the Arab Spring.
This study provides a longitudinal content analysis of advertising research articles in 17 top-tier advertising, marketing, and communication journals published over the past 30 years (1980-2010, n = ...926). The study's purpose is to shed light on the direction and progression of advertising as an academic field by updating and extending Yale and Gilly's (1988) study of advertising research trends. Nine content characteristics of the journal articles were examined: (1) theory presence (theory driven versus not theory driven), (2) names, types (theory versus theoretical framework/model versus construct), and originating disciplines of theory, (3) topic areas, (4) media of interest, (5) research approaches (empirical versus nonempirical and quantitative versus qualitative versus mixed), (6) methods, (7) types of effects, (8) units of analysis, and (9) research implications. Changes in the content characteristics of journal articles were found across the 30 years analyzed in five-year intervals. Implications for the field, scholars, and advertising practitioners are discussed.
Booms, busts, and fertility Schaller, Jessamyn
The Journal of human resources,
2016, Letnik:
51, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
In this paper, I present estimates of the effect of local labor demand shocks on birth rates. To identify exogenous variation in male and female labor demand, I create indices that exploit ...cross-sectional variation in industry composition, changes in gender-education composition within industries, and growth in national industry employment. Consistent with economic theory, I find that improvements in men's labor market conditions are associated with increases in fertility while improvements in women's labor market conditions have smaller negative effects. I separately find that increases in unemployment rates are associated with small decreases in birth rates at the state level.
This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the United ...States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts.
•The national saving rate in China has more than doubled since 1980.•Establishing the right reasons behind this increase is important.•Risks faced by the elderly and the decline in family insurance ...due to the one-child policy play an important role in the increase in the saving rate.
A general equilibrium model that properly captures the risks in old age, the role of family insurance, changes in demographics, and the productivity growth rate is capable of generating changes in the national saving rate in China that mimic the data well. Our findings suggest that the combination of the risks faced by the elderly and the deterioration of family insurance due to the one-child policy may account for approximately half of the increase in the saving rate between 1980 and 2010. Changes in the productivity growth rate account for the fluctuations in the saving rate during this period.
Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000s, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house priceto-rent ratio ...and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions — the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers - into house price-to-rent ratio models yields stable long-run relationships, more precisely estimated effects, reasonable speeds of adjustment and improved model fits.
Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this paper uses panel cointegration techniques to investigate the short‐ and long‐run relationship between CO2 emissions, gross domestic ...product (GDP), renewable energy consumption and international trade for a panel of 24 sub‐Saharan Africa countries over the period 1980–2010. Short‐run Granger causality results reveal that there is a bidirectional causality between emissions and economic growth; bidirectional causality between emissions and real exports; unidirectional causality from real imports to emissions; and unidirectional causality runs from trade (exports or imports) to renewable energy consumption. There is an indirect short‐run causality running from emissions to renewable energy and an indirect short‐run causality from GDP to renewable energy. In the long‐run, the error correction term is statistically significant for emissions, renewable energy consumption and trade. The long‐run estimates suggest that the inverted U‐shaped EKC hypothesis is not supported for these countries; exports have a positive impact on CO2 emissions, whereas imports have a negative impact on CO2 emissions. As a policy recommendation, sub‐Saharan Africa countries should expand their trade exchanges particularly with developed countries and try to maximize their benefit from technology transfer occurring when importing capital goods as this may increase their renewable energy consumption and reduce CO2 emissions.
We estimate pass-through with 30 years of data from the portland cement industry. Robust econometric evidence supports that fuel cost changes are more than fully transmitted downstream in the form of ...price changes. This validates an implicit pass-through assumption made in recent academic research and regulatory analyses. We combine the econometric results with estimates of competitive conduct obtained from the literature to evaluate the incidence of market-based CO₂ regulation. Producers bear roughly 11% of the regulatory burden and could be compensated with 16% of the revenues obtained.
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