Firm Expectations and Economic Activity Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot
Journal of the European Economic Association,
12/2022, Letnik:
20, Številka:
6
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Abstract
We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. ...To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15% of aggregate fluctuations.
Abstract
We exploit police and crime data from California over 26 years to construct a dynamic panel, which is then estimated using Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond techniques to address concerns about ...simultaneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and inertial effects in the policing-crime relationship. We find no evidence that increases in police staffing lead to meaningful reductions in crime through either deterrence or incapacitation. Estimates are not wholly supportive of a compelling relationship between prior criminal offending and current police staffing; providing suggestive evidence that, at least within our sample, simultaneity bias may be more modest in nature than has been previously supposed in prior studies.
The recent economic rise of China and India has attracted a great deal of attention--and justifiably so. Together, the two countries account for one-fifth of the global economy and are projected to ...represent a full third of the world's income by 2025. Yet, many of the views regarding China and India's market reforms and high growth have been tendentious, exaggerated, or oversimplified.Awakening Giants, Feet of Clayscrutinizes the phenomenal rise of both nations, and demolishes the myths that have accumulated around the economic achievements of these two giants in the last quarter century. Exploring the challenges that both countries must overcome to become true leaders in the international economy, Pranab Bardhan looks beyond short-run macroeconomic issues to examine and compare China and India's major policy changes, political and economic structures, and current general performance.
Bardhan investigates the two countries' economic reforms, each nation's pattern and composition of growth, and the problems afflicting their agricultural, industrial, infrastructural, and financial sectors. He considers how these factors affect China and India's poverty, inequality, and environment, how political factors shape each country's pattern of burgeoning capitalism, and how significant poverty reduction in both countries is mainly due to domestic factors--not global integration, as most would believe. He shows how authoritarianism has distorted Chinese development while democratic governance in India has been marred by severe accountability failures.
Full of valuable insights,Awakening Giants, Feet of Clayprovides a nuanced picture of China and India's complex political economy at a time of startling global reconfiguration and change.
The rise of China and fivefold growth of its stock market over the past decade have fueled a growing literature on this market in financial economics. On the corporate side, researchers have ...evaluated the progress of China's stages of privatization, analyzed biases in the selection of firms for listing, and documented massive underpricing of initial public offerings. On the asset pricing side, researchers have studied the price premium of domestic A shares over their foreign-share counterparts, analyzed the firm-specific information content of prices, provided new evidence on informational and behavioral effects in prices, and begun to identify systematic cross-sectional patterns in returns. Numerous areas are ripe for future research as China's stock market continues to grow in global influence and as ongoing reform provides new natural experiments. Challenges for the field will be to gain familiarity with China's distinctive financial system and to avoid overapplying research paradigms developed for the US setting.
This study focuses on time series analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) characteristics and its relationships with urban heat island (UHI) intensity in Bangkok Metropolitan area. The study is ...aimed at examining impact of LULC changes on the greenness and land surface temperature (LST) as well as the relationship of LST, LULC and Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We consider the heat intensity, hot spot zones, and land use characteristics related hotspot areas. LULC classification based on satellite images taken by Landsat data in summer dates of 1991, 1997, 2005 and 2016, were classified into four LULC types: built up area; vegetation area; barren land; and surface water. UHI was studied by deriving LST based satellite images method using the thermal band of Landsat satellite in the same periods as of LULC classification. The results show that the built up area was approximately 30% in 1991, then, it was sharply increasing to approximately 55% of the total area in 2016. The changing trends of LST tend to be increasing while the value of NDVI with dense vegetation meaning tend to be declining over the study period. The significant negative correlation between LST and NDVI implied that the lower biomass can higher LST. UHI intensity was also continually rising from 11.91 êC in 1991 to 16.21 êC in 2016 leading to nearly 5 êC increase in Bangkok. High density of buildings, no vegetation areas and large area of concrete pavement are the most significant related to the hot spot areas.
Previous studies on the J-curve hypothesis for South Africa have relied on aggregate trade data between South Africa and the rest of the world, or on similar data for trade between South Africa and ...its major trading partners. The evidence of J-curve effects in South Africa's bilateral trade have been mixed. In this paper, we revisit this issue by examining the short- and long-run effects of exchange-rate changes on trade flows using disaggregated industry data on bilateral trade between South Africa and the United States. From estimates of trade balance models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find evidence of significant J-curve effects, as a depreciation of the South African currency has favourable short-run effects on trade balances for eight industries. These short-run effects continue into the long run for a quarter of the industries considered in the study. The results also show that income has significant long-run effects on trade flows in industries that account for almost 55% of trade flows between South Africa and the United States.
Marriage and housework Borra, Cristina; Browning, Martin; Sevilla, Almudena
Oxford economic papers,
04/2021, Letnik:
73, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Abstract
This article provides insights into the gains of forming a couple by estimating how much of the difference in housework between single and married individuals is causal and how much is due ...to selection. Time-varying observed variables and time-invariant heterogeneity explains about half of the observed differences in housework documented in the cross-sectional data. There remains a genuine one-and-a-half-hour increase per week in housework time for each partner, with women specializing in routine and men in non-routine housework tasks.
India is an emerging market economy, and has been more successful than most other emerging economies. Key to this success are India's ancient legacy of consensus democracy, non-violence, ...multi-culturality, tolerance, secularism, and the practical simplicity of economic life inspired by Mahatma Gandhi. Also, vital to India's present economy is the history of the country since the struggle for Independence began in 1857. India has followed a strikingly distinct route of development from other emerging economies such as South Korea, China, Malaysia, Brazil, and Mexico. While these countries concentrated on manufacturing and exports, India grounded its economy on an integrative domestic system of life. This model is marked by interesting and gradual, but constant, growth with an emphasis on services.Reforms in land-agricultural system, political governance, and financial management have led to a landmark stage of economic progress, with India's GDP rate higher than many emerging market economies. This volume explores the reasons why India has fared better than other emerging market economies, and whether other countries can take inspiration from this model and rebuild their own countries based on their national resources, cultural heritage, and the capacity to interact globally.The book is inspired by Mahatma Gandhi's 'India of my Dreams'. It would be entirely unrealistic to claim that India's development model is all positive or meets the standards of India of Gandhi's dreams. Gandhi was a great proponent of the self-sufficiency of villages and of the bourgeoning of cottage industries. However, in present day India, debt-ridden farmers' suicide rates are drastic and the crafts are dying. In finding answers to why this is so, the volume looks at the failures in the development of cottage industries, whether the efforts of NGOs in this regard are
sufficient, and whether Amartya Sen's capabilities approach would complement Gandhi's 'self-sufficiency of villages' perspective in order to preserve crafts and indigenous production systems while continuing with industrialization and agrarian reforms.
Le Drame de l'humanisme athée (1944) should be read alongside certain of his other wartime writings, so as to better understand how he then conceived of the crisis of modernity and the emergence of ...totalitarianism. There is a large measure of continuity between Le Drame de l'humanisme athée and La Postérité spirituelle de Joachim de Flore (1979-1980), written nearly forty years later. The scope of the latter work is far greater. Underpinned by a rich Christian anthropology, it was not, however, properly finished. The combination of the two works provides many an insight into how, philosophically and spiritually, the twentieth century was shaped. De Lubac shared an affinity of thought with Eric Voegelin, and also with Gaston Fessard. The past twenty-five years have given ample proof of a continued interest in these two works and associated writings, but, curiously, this interest has perhaps been more evident in the English-speaking world than in the French-speaking one. Il Le Drame de l'humanisme athée (1944) dovrebbe essere letto insieme ad altri scritti di De Lubac del periodo di guerra, anche per meglio comprendere come egli concepi la crisi della modernità e l'emergere del totalitarismo. Esiste una notevole misura di continuitá tra Le Drame de l'humanisme athée e La Postérité spirituelle de Joachim de Flore (1979-1980), scritto quasi quarant'anni dopo. Lo scopo del lavoro successivo è notevolmente più ampio. Sostenuto da una ricca antropologia cristiana, non fu, comunque, propriamente terminato. La combinazione dei due lavori fornisce una notevole intuizione su come, filosoficamente e spiritualmente, il ventesimo secolo prese forma. De Lubac condivise un'affinità di pensiero con Eric Voegelin e anche con Gaston Fessard. Gli ultimi venticinque anni hanno dato ampia prova di un continuo interesse su questi due lavori e sugli scritti relativi; questo interesse ha forse più consistenza nell'area anglosassone ehe in quella francofona.
This article analyzes three Neo-Scholastic appeals to the thought of John Henry Newman at the beginning of the twentieth century on the subject of doctrinal development. Most research into the ...relationship between Neo-Scholastics and Newman focus on the differences between the two. This article addresses a significant lacuna by focusing on the reception of Newman by Neo-Scholastics who were more or less sympathetic to Newman. Yet the three case studies (Gardeil, Marin-Sola, Grandmaison) manifest different levels of appropriation of Newman's thought as well as the variegated concerns that certain Neo-Scholastics had when they approached Newman's work. The conclusion applies what is learned from these case-studies to the more general narrative of twentieth-century Catholic theology. Questo articolo analizza tre riferimenti Neo-Scolastici al pensiero di John Henry Newman, all'inizio del ventesimo secolo, in materia di sviluppo dottrinale. L'attenzione è alla relazione tra i Neo-Scolastici e l'intéresse di Newman sulle differenze tra i due. L'articolo colma una significativa lacuna tra la recezione di Newman e i Neo-Scolastici, che furono più o meno favorevoli a Newman. Inoltre i tre casi di studio (Gardeil, Marin-Sola, De Grandmaison) mostrano differenti livelli di appropriazione del pensiero di Newman, come anche i variegati riferimenti che aleuni Neo-Scolastici ebbero quando si accostarono al pensiero di Newman. La conclusione si sofferma su ciò che si apprende da questi casi di studio, nel quadro della narrativa generale della teologia eattoliea del ventesimo secolo.
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