Der Vertrag von Maastricht ist - im Lichte der ursprünglich artikulierten Zielvorstellungen - als Torso zu betrachten: Während die Schaffung einer Europäischen Währungsunion (EWU) in vollem Umfang ...vereinbart wurde, blieben die Bemühungen um substantielle Fortschritte auf dem Wege zu einer Politischen Union Europas in rudimentären Ansätzen stecken. Als (schwacher) Trost blieb Befürwortern einer weitergehenden politischen Integration lediglich die »Zusage« des EU-Vertrags, daß im Jahre 1996 eine Regierungskonferenz zur Revision der Bestimmungen über die Politische Union einberufen wird. Dieses Ereignis - meist nur kurz als »Maastricht II« bezeichnet - nahm der Wirtschaftspolitische Ausschuß des Vereins für Socialpolitik zum Anlaß, sich im Rahmen seiner Sitzung im April 1996 in Fribourg (Schweiz) mit Problemen und Perspektiven einer Weiterentwicklung der Integration Europas zu beschäftigen. Im Gegensatz zur Regierungskonferenz widmete sich der Ausschuß allerdings nicht nur Fragen einer möglichen Fortentwicklung der Politischen Union, sondern auch, ja in besonderem Maße, den Erfolgsaussichten der geplanten Europäischen Währungsunion. Entsprechend wird in diesem Tagungsband ein breites Spektrum von Fragen thematisiert. Es reicht von einem umfassenden Problemaufriß über eine differenzierte Auseinandersetzung mit Chancen und Risiken der EWU bis hin zu einer Prognose der von der Regierungskonferenz zu erwartenden Änderungen der institutionellen Infrastruktur der EU. In ihrer Gesamtheit verdeutlichen diese acht Beiträge nicht nur, wie weit die EU heute noch von einer Politischen Union entfernt ist, die diesen Namen verdient; sie bemühen sich auch um Antworten auf die Frage, welche Wege sich als (nicht) zielführend erweisen dürften.
This paper analyzes the effects of changes in the duration of paid, job-protected parental leave on mothers' higher-order fertility and postbirth labor market careers. Identification is based on a ...major Austrian reform increasing the duration of parental leave from one year to two years for any child born on or after July 1, 1990. We find that mothers who give birth to their first child immediately after the reform have more second children than prereform mothers, and that extended parental leave significantly reduces return to work. Employment and earnings also decrease in the short run, but not in the long run. Fertility and work responses vary across the population in ways suggesting that both cash transfers and job protection are relevant. Increasing parental leave for a future child increases fertility strongly but leaves short-run postbirth careers relatively unaffected. Partially reversing the 1990 extension, a second 1996 reform improves employment and earnings while compressing the time between births.
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•The 1996 Lijiang earthquake coseismic deformation was detected by JERS-1 SAR images.•Source parameters were estimated by inverting displacement fields obtained by InSAR.•The ...earthquake can be explained by slip along two listric normal faults.•Two fault slip sub-events occurred; the second was triggered by the first sub-event.
The northwestern Yunnan rift zone in the Yunnan Province of China is a seismically active region located along the western boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan Block on the eastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.6 (Mw) occurred in this region on February 3, 1996. The Lijiang earthquake was the largest normal-faulting event to occur along the western boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan Block in the last 40years. In this study, we used L-band JERS-1 (Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1) SAR data sets from two descending orbits to detect surface deformation signals surrounding the epicentral region in order to estimate the source parameters through an inversion of the displacement fields. The results indicated that the earthquake can be explained by slip along two segments of the ∼N–S trending listric normal fault, named the Lijiang–Daju fault. Coseismic deformation patterns and slip distributions revealed that the earthquake consisted of two sub-events, which were also suggested by seismological results. Based on an analysis of the static Coulomb stress change, the second sub-event was likely triggered by the first sub-event. The central segment of the Lijiang–Daju fault, which has an eastward-convex geometry, did not rupture during the earthquake. This phenomenon was probably related to a geometrical discontinuity at the fault-bend area of the Lijiang–Daju fault.
The prevention or reduction of the exposure of the population to environmental noise is the fundamental objective of the European Noise Directive (END). To this end, strategic noise maps are ...considered as the basic tool and on-site measurements play an important role in its successful implementation. In this regard, the ISO 1996 standards are the reference for the measurement and assessment of environmental noise, but their application may be complex in many cases. It is therefore necessary to find urban scenarios in which the effects of the placement of the measuring equipment with respect to the façade on noise exposure levels can be analysed.In this study, an educational building was selected for an analysis of the differences in the weekly sound level from road traffic between a microphone flush-mounted on a plate at the façade and another placed between 0.5 and 2.0 m from it. The recommendations in Annex B of ISO 1996-2 were followed in the placement of the microphones. A broadband analysis shows that similar results were found for the four distances analysed, but that variations of up to 0.6 dBA above the reference value arose. An analogous study using frequency octave bands shows differences higher than 2 dB between the measured configurations for bands under 250 Hz. Based on the distance range given in ISO 1996-2 for the position of a microphone in front of a reflecting surface, the results suggest that the most appropriate option for accurately assessing the sound level incident on the façade of buildings is to place the microphone at a distance of 2 m if the guidelines of the ISO 1996-2 standard can be met.
Benchmark indexes have become important in financial markets for portfolio investment. In this paper, we study how international equity and bond market indexes impact asset allocations, capital ...flows, asset prices, and exchange rates across countries. We use unique monthly micro-level data of benchmark compositions and mutual fund investments during 1996–2014. We find that movements in benchmarks appear to have important effects on equity and bond mutual fund portfolio allocations, including passive and active funds. The effects persist after controlling for time-varying industry-level factors, country-specific effects, and macroeconomic fundamentals. Changes in benchmarks not only impact asset allocations, but also capital flows, abnormal returns in aggregate stock and bond prices, and exchange rates. These systemic effects occur not just when benchmark changes are announced, but also later, when they become effective. By impacting country allocations, benchmarks explain apparently counterintuitive movements in capital flows and asset prices, as well as contagion effects.
•We study how benchmark indexes affect equity and bond mutual fund portfolio allocations across countries•Benchmark indexes impact both passive and active mutual fund portfolios•By affecting portfolios, benchmarks also impact capital flows, asset prices, and exchange rates across countries•Systemic effects occur not just when benchmark changes are announced, but also later, when they become effective•Benchmarks explain apparently counter intuitive movements in capital flows and asset prices, as well as contagion effects
El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el ejercicio de la capacidad negocial de personas mayores de 18 años con discapacidades intelectuales y psicosociales en Colombia, a partir de la Ley 1996 de ...2019, con el fin de plantear algunas recomendaciones a tener en cuenta al momento de realizar los ajustes razonables y definir los apoyos para la toma de decisiones, que atiendan tanto al modelo social de discapacidad y al enfoque de derechos humanos, como también a la autonomía privada. Mediante un análisis de contenido documental y de comparación normativa se presentan algunos aspectos que se deberían observar en los ámbitos personal, interrelacional y estructural, para maximizar el ejercicio de la capacidad negocial de las personas con discapacidades, y para hacer efectivos los principios de autonomía, dignidad humana y diversidad.
•We investigated the possible hydrological precursors before 1996 Lijiang earthquake.•Two long short-term memory models were developed in the precursor detection.•The models show similar prediction ...results whether auxiliary data were used or not.•Five hydrological anomalies among the monitoring data were detected by our models.•Four detected hydrological anomalies (80%) were related with Lijiang earthquake.
Historical data on underground fluid can be valuable for detecting potential hydrological precursors. Although different analysis methods have been employed, nonlinear dynamic fluctuations and the lack of auxiliary observations makes hydrological precursors difficult to identify. In this study, we investigated hydrological time series of data from six monitoring sites to identify possible precursors to the Lijiang earthquake. Two long short-term memory (LSTM) models were developed to simulate and forecast hydrological variations, with and without the use of auxiliary data. The results indicate that both models are useful and valid in forecasting short-term hydrological variations. The LSTM model developed using only historical data can provide good accuracy and validity in simulating and forecasting short-term hydrological variations when no auxiliary meteorological observations are available. The results show that observations made during seismically inactive periods can be better modeled than those made during active periods. Furthermore, the exponentially weighted moving average control chart was employed as a detector to identify anomalous signals. The results show that there was a false precursor in the time series from the six monitoring points (wells and springs). Hydrological anomalies at four of the wells occurred 1–6 months before the Lijiang earthquake and can be attributed to changes in tectonic stress. However, the anomalies at one of the other wells may be unrelated to this earthquake. An anomalous signal observed at a spring could not be related to earthquakes and may have been caused by other factors. This study shows that LSTM models are useful in detecting possible hydrological precursor anomalies.
In the United States, tropical cyclones cause destructive flooding that can lead to adverse health outcomes. Storm-driven flooding contaminates environmental, recreational, and drinking water ...sources, but few studies have examined effects on specific infections over time. We used 23 years of exposure and case data to assess the effects of tropical cyclones on 6 waterborne diseases in a conditional quasi-Poisson model. We separately defined storm exposure for windspeed, rainfall, and proximity to the storm track. Exposure to storm-related rainfall was associated with a 48% (95% CI 27%-69%) increase in Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infections 1 week after storms and a 42% (95% CI 22%-62%) in increase Legionnaires' disease 2 weeks after storms. Cryptosporidiosis cases increased 52% (95% CI 42%-62%) during storm weeks but declined over ensuing weeks. Cyclones are a risk to public health that will likely become more serious with climate change and aging water infrastructure systems.
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