In this paper we explore the constraints that our preferred account of scientific representation places on the ontology of scientific models. Pace the Direct Representation view associated with Arnon ...Levy and Adam Toon, we argue that scientific models should be thought of as imagined systems, and clarify the relationship between imagination and representation.¹
Despite widespread evidence that fictional models play an explanatory role in science, resistance remains to the idea that fictions can explain. A central source of this resistance is a particular ...view about what explanations are, namely, the ontic conception of explanation. According to the ontic conception, explanations just are the concrete entities in the world. I argue this conception is ultimately incoherent and that even a weaker version of the ontic conception fails. Fictional models can succeed in offering genuine explanations by correctly capturing relevant patterns of counterfactual dependence and licensing correct inferences. Using the example of Newtonian force explanations of the tides, I show how, even in science, fiction can be a vehicle for truth.
Scholars have suggested that counterfactual thinking may play an important role in entrepreneurship; however, empirical research positioned to inform the nature of this relationship has been ...equivocal. In this study, we draw on the tenets of social cognition theory as a basis to investigate the relationship between counterfactual thinking and the dispositional attributes of the entrepreneur, hypothesizing concomitant influences upon the entrepreneur's self–efficacy. Based on a survey of 138 entrepreneurs, our findings suggest that the implications of counterfactual thinking for entrepreneurial self–efficacy are moderated by individual differences based in the dispositional attributes of the entrepreneur.
The Making of Might-Have-Beens Alquist, Jessica L.; Ainsworth, Sarah E.; Baumeister, Roy F. ...
Personality & social psychology bulletin,
02/2015, Letnik:
41, Številka:
2
Journal Article
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Counterfactual thoughts are based on the assumption that one situation could result in multiple possible outcomes. This assumption underlies most theories of free will and contradicts deterministic ...views that there is only one possible outcome of any situation. Three studies tested the hypothesis that stronger belief in free will would lead to more counterfactual thinking. Experimental manipulations (Studies 1-2) and a measure (Studies 3-4) of belief in free will were linked to increased counterfactual thinking in response to autobiographical (Studies 1, 3, and 4) and hypothetical (Study 2) events. Belief in free will also predicted the kind of counterfactuals generated. Belief in free will was associated with an increase in the generation of self and upward counterfactuals, which have been shown to be particularly useful for learning. These findings fit the view that belief in free will is promoted by societies because it facilitates learning and culturally valued change.
Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if Sweden had imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We consider eight ...different indicators, including a novel one that we construct by adjusting recorded daily COVID-19 deaths to account for weakly excess mortality. Correcting for data problems and re-optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects within one week. The much longer delay estimated by two previous studies focusing on the number of positives cases is mainly driven by the extremely low testing frequency that prevailed in Sweden in the first months of the epidemic. This result appears relevant for choosing the timing of future lockdowns and highlights the importance of looking at several indicators to derive robust conclusions. We also find that our novel indicator is effective in correcting errors in the COVID-19 deaths series and that the quantitative effects of the lockdown are stronger than previously estimated.
The idea that spatial cognition provides the foundation of linguistic meanings, even highly abstract meanings, has been put forward by a number of linguists in recent years. This book takes this ...proposal into new dimensions and develops a theoretical framework based on simple geometric principles. All speakers are conceptualisers who have a point of view both in a literal and in an abstract sense, choosing their perspective in space, time and the real world. The book examines the conceptualising properties of verbs, including tense, aspect, modality and transitivity, as well as the conceptual workings of grammatical constructions associated with counterfactuality, other minds and the expression of moral force. It makes links to the cognitive sciences throughout and concludes with a discussion of the relationship between language, brain and mind.
What We Regret Most... and Why Roese, Neal J.; Summerville, Amy
Personality & social psychology bulletin,
09/2005, Letnik:
31, Številka:
9
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Which domains in life produce the greatest potential for regret, and what features of those life domains explain why? Using archival and laboratory evidence, the authors show that greater perceived ...opportunity within life domains evokes more intense regret. This pattern is consistent with previous publications demonstrating greater regret stemming from high rather than low opportunity or choice. A meta-analysis of 11 regret ranking studies revealed that the top six biggest regrets in life center on (in descending order) education, career, romance, parenting, the self, and leisure. Study Set 2 provided new laboratory evidence that directly linked the regret ranking to perceived opportunity. Study Set 3 ruled out an alternative interpretation involving framing effects. Overall, these findings show that people’s biggest regrets are a reflection of where in life they see their largest opportunities; that is, where they see tangible prospects for change, growth, and renewal.
This book provides a critical overview of significant developments in research and theory on counterfactual thinking that have emerged in recent years and spotlights exciting new directions for ...future research in this area. Key issues considered include the relations between counterfactual and casual reasoning, the functional bases of counterfactual thinking, the role of counterfactual thinking in the experience of emotion and the importance of counterfactual thinking in the context of crime and justice.
Part 1: Counterfactuals, Causality and Mental Representation. Counterfactual and Causal Explanation: From Early Theoretical Views to New Frontiers D.R. Mandel. The Relation between Counterfactual and Causal Reasoning B.A. Spellman, A.P. Kincannon and S.J. Stose. The Course of Events: Counterfactuals, Causal Sequences and Explanation D.J. Hilton, J.L. McClure and B.R. Slugoski. The Mental Representation of What Might Have Been C.R. Walsh and R.M. J. Bryne Part 2: Functional Bases of Counterfactual Thinking. Reflective and Evaluative Modes of Mental Simulation K.D. Markman and M.N. McMullen. Scenario Simulations in Learning: Forms and Functions at the Individual and Organizational Levels S. Segura and M.W. Morris. Finding Meaning from Mutability: Making Sense and Deriving Significance through Counterfactual Thinking. A.D. Galinsky, K.A. Liljenquist, L.L. Kray and N.J. Roese Part 3: Counterfactual Thinking and Emotion. When a Small Difference Makes a Big Difference: Counterfactual Thinking and Luck K.H. Teigen. On the Comparative Nature of Regret. M. Zeelenberg and E. van Dijk Part 4: Counterfactual Thinking in the Context of Crime, Justice and Political History. Escape from Reality: Prisoners’ Counterfactual Thinking about Crime, Justice, and Punishment M.K. Dhami, D.R. Mandel and K.A. Souza. When the Social Context Frames the Case: Counterfactuals in the Courtroom P. Catellani and P. Milesi. Theory- versus Imagination-Driven Thinking about Historical Counterfactuals: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions? P.E. Tetlock and E. Henik.
David R. Mandel is a Defence Scientist with the Department of National Defence in Canada. His areas of research expertise include thinking and reasoning, judgment and decision making, and social cognition.
Denis J. Hilton is Professor of Social Psychology at the University of Toulouse-II. His research interests include social cognition, reasoning, judgment, and experimental economics.
Patrizia Catellani is Full Professor of Social Psychology at the Catholic University of Milan, Italy. Her research is focused on the area of cognitive social psychology, with a particular emphasis on applications to the political and judicial contexts.
We define a formal semantics of conditionals based on
normatively ideal worlds
. Such worlds are described informally by Armgardt (Gabbay D, Magnani L, Park W, Pietarinen A-V (eds) Natural arguments: ...a tribute to john woods, College Publications, London, pp 699–708, 2018) to address well-known problems of the counterfactual approach to causation. Drawing on Armgardt’s proposal, we use iterated conditionals in order to analyse causal relations in scenarios of multi-agent interaction. This results in a refined counterfactual approach to causal responsibility in legal contexts, which solves overdetermination problems in an intuitively accessible manner.
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