The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between energy production, energy consumption, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in China for the period 1981–2016 (at the disaggregate ...level). The results of the Hatemi-J cointegration and structural-break tests supported long-term co-integration in the consumption and production of coal, oil, and natural gas. Based on the three models (coal, oil, and natural gas) of energy production and consumption, the fully-modified least square (FMOLS) method results confirmed the presence of long-term positive impact of the consumption and production of coal, oil, and natural gas on GDP growth. The CCR model estimations for robustness were found to be consistent with the FMLOS estimations. The vector error correction mechanism (VECM) based Granger-causality tests identified a one-way causality run from coal production and coal consumption to GDP growth; from GDP growth to gas consumption (supporting conservation hypothesis); from natural gas production to natural gas consumption; and from oil production and oil consumption to GDP growth. The paper draws important policy implications for theory, research and practice.
•Energy production, energy consumption and economic growth were examined in China.•The Hatemi-J and FMOLS tests supported long term co-integration among variables.•Both energy consumption and production positively affect economic growth.•A one-way Granger causality observed from coal and oil to economic growth.•A one-way Granger causality observed from economic growth to gas consumption.
•Narratives of new socio-economic pathways translated into a set of quantified long-term GDP projections.•Exploration of the main drivers of future income growth in 32 world regions.•Evaluation of ...GDP scenarios against empirical stylized facts.•Sensitivity analysis showing robustness of the approach.
Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.
Summary
Plant‐derived Vitamin C (l‐ascorbic acid (AsA)) is crucial for human health and wellbeing and thus increasing AsA content is of interest to plant breeders. In plants GDP‐l‐galactose ...phosphorylase (GGP) is a key biosynthetic control step and here evidence is presented for two new transcriptional activators of GGP.
AsA measurement, transcriptomics, transient expression, hormone application, gene editing, yeast 1/2‐hybrid, and electromobility shift assay (EMSA) methods were used to identify two positively regulating transcription factors.
AceGGP3 was identified as the most highly expressed GGP in Actinidia eriantha fruit, which has high fruit AsA. A gene encoding a 1R‐subtype myeloblastosis (MYB) protein, AceMYBS1, was found to bind the AceGGP3 promoter and activate its expression. Overexpression and gene‐editing show AceMYBS1 effectively increases AsA accumulation. The bZIP transcription factor AceGBF3 (a G‐box binding factor), also was shown to increase AsA content, and was confirmed to interact with AceMYBS1. Co‐expression experiments showed that AceMYBS1 and AceGBF3 additively promoted AceGGP3 expression. Furthermore, AceMYBS1, but not GBF3, was repressed by abscisic acid, resulting in reduced AceGGP3 expression and accumulation of AsA.
This study sheds new light on the roles of MYBS1 homologues and ABA in modulating AsA synthesis, and adds to the understanding of mechanisms underlying AsA accumulation.
The potential gross domestic product (GDP), together with the difference between real GDP and its potential amount, are commonly used nowadays for macroeconomic modeling, policy assessment, fiscal ...sustainability evaluation and measuring the structural budget balance. The European Commission, OECD nations and central banks pay attention to identify potential output and GDP gap due to their great significance. The paper provides estimation of potential GDP and GDP gap for the Central and Eastern European region. The strategy is to combine the Cobb-Douglas structural method with other statistical methods of de-trending, in order to determine an aggregation measure for potential GDP, based on a weighting scheme determined with principal component analysis (PCA). Since a regional evaluation of potential economic growth is helpful for drawing well-structured economic policies, the assessment is based on 2000 – 2017 Eurostat aggregated data for all Central and Eastern European countries, except Albania. Using an aggregation method can help assessing economic growth trend in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies, while capturing the useful information provided by different methods.
This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of detrending policies in Turkey using the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and selected indicators from 2010 to ...2021. The HP filter is a commonly used statistical tool for detrending time series data by separating the trend component from the cyclical component of a series. The discussion section shows the observable and physical impact of overlooking the cyclical components over the trend components. It also contains verifiable facts from several trustworthy sources showing the precise impact of detrending the economy. The final section of this work contains the final results and recommendations that make up the entirety of this work’s body. By analyzing the trend in GDP and selected indicators such as inflation, exchange rate, and unemployment rate, we can gain insights into how Turkey’s economy has been affected by detrending policies; and provides a basis from which better policies can be founded.
This paper constructs residents’ attentiveness index of the Belt and Road Initiative by big data, and combines social and economic factors to study the spatial and temporal distribution of initiative ...attentiveness, we can find that (1) the attentiveness of the initiative will be greatly affected by large government conferences, and there is a mismatch between the areas covered by the initiative and the areas. (2) both per capita GDP and the proportion of fiscal investment in GDP have a significantly positive impact on the initiative attentiveness of residents, while CPI has a significantly negative Population size and unemployment rates do not have a significant impact on the initiative’s attentiveness. (3) the impact of initiative attentiveness has obvious regional differences. This paper breaks the habitual cognition of the attention of the initiative, and combines the social and economic conditions, and puts forward some suggestions, such as expanding the boundary of the Belt and Road, taking multiple measures to mobilize the social forces to build the Belt and Road, and treating the different policies.
Proponents of degrowth query the compatibility of ecological sustainability with economic growth and a capitalist system predicated on the ongoing expansion of economic output. This article deploys ...insights from constructivist political economy and recent literature on the politics of technocratic expertise to build upon and challenge this analysis. Using UK national accounting practices as a case study, it explores how current approaches to GDP measurement both facilitate and obstruct the treatment of reduced material throughput as increased economic output, of “less” as “more”. Rather than advancing an alternative to GDP growth, it highlights how tensions between the pursuit of growth and the pursuit of sustainability might be reduced using conceptual resources drawn from within established approaches to national accounting and GDP measurement. Although far from a panacea, changes in technocratic practices of national accounting could reduce economic and political barriers to green transition policies.
Global warming is now the most serious environmental challenge. In the most recent Paris accord, authorities opted to reduce global emissions to a certain level and voiced significant concern for ...China, the world's largest CO2 emitter, accounting for around 29.4% of total emissions. In contrast, coal accounts 65% of the majority of China's energy mix in 2019. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the environmental factors influencing China's CO2 emissions. Hence, the research examines fossil fuel energy, renewable energy, and GDP between 1980 to 2018 using novel dynamic ARDL simulations and Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) models. The empirical findings show that fossil fuel energy intensely boosts CO2 emissions long and short term. On the other hand, GDP increases carbon emissions in the long term but has a significant adverse effect on China's environment in the short run. While renewable energy usage has a short-term detrimental impact on CO2 emissions. The FDC also supports the long-, medium-and short-term causality hypotheses. Overall, our results imply that renewable energy consumption is crucial for achieving sustainable environmental goals and discourages fossil fuel use in the energy mix. We recommend that China consider empirical evidence and initiate long-term strategies to diminish carbon emissions for a sustainable environment.
The main objective of this study is to examine the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis by utilizing the ecological footprint as an environment indicator and GDP from tourism as the economic ...indicator. To achieve this goal, an environmental degradation model is established during the period of 1988–2008 for 144 countries. The results from the time series generalized method of moments (GMM) and the system panel GMM revealed that the number of countries that have a negative relationship between the ecological footprint and its determinants (GDP growth from tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, and urbanization) is more existent in the upper middle- and high-income countries. Moreover, the EKC hypothesis is more present in the upper middle- and high-income countries than the other income countries. From the outcome of this research, a number of policy recommendations were provided for the investigated countries.
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