Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress Kubiszewski, Ida; Costanza, Robert; Franco, Carol ...
African journal of food, agriculture, nutrition, and development : AJFAND,
09/2013, Letnik:
93, Številka:
5
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While global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than three-fold since 1950, economic welfare, as estimated by the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), has actually decreased since 1978. We ...synthesized estimates of GPI over the 1950–2003 time period for 17 countries for which GPI has been estimated. These 17 countries contain 53% of the global population and 59% of the global GDP. We compared GPI with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), Ecological Footprint, Biocapacity, Gini coefficient, and Life Satisfaction scores. Results show a significant variation among these countries, but some major trends. We also estimated a global GPI/capita over the 1950–2003 period. Global GPI/capita peaked in 1978, about the same time that global Ecological Footprint exceeded global Biocapacity. Life Satisfaction in almost all countries has also not improved significantly since 1975. Globally, GPI/capita does not increase beyond a GDP/capita of around $7000/capita. If we distributed income more equitably around the planet, the current world GDP ($67trillion/yr) could support 9.6billion people at $7000/capita. While GPI is not the perfect economic welfare indicator, it is a far better approximation than GDP. Development policies need to shift to better account for real welfare and not merely GDP growth.
•Global GPI/capita peaked in 1978.•Globally, GPI/capita does not increase beyond a GDP/capita of around $6,500/capita.•With more equitable distribution, current world GDP ($67trillion/yr) could support 9.6billion people at $7,000/capita.•Life satisfaction in almost all countries has also not improved significantly since 1975.
The fading American dream Chetty, Raj; Grusky, David; Hell, Maximilian ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
04/2017, Letnik:
356, Številka:
6336
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We estimated rates of “absolute income mobility”—the fraction of children who earn more than their parents—by combining data from U.S. Census and Current Population Survey cross sections with panel ...data from de-identified tax records. We found that rates of absolute mobility have fallen from approximately 90% for children born in 1940 to 50% for children born in the 1980s. Increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates alone cannot restore absolute mobility to the rates experienced by children born in the 1940s. However, distributing current GDP growth more equally across income groups as in the 1940 birth cohort would reverse more than 70% of the decline in mobility. These results imply that reviving the “American dream” of high rates of absolute mobility would require economic growth that is shared more broadly across the income distribution.
First attempt has been made to find the effects of foreign direct investment on environmental pollution and economic growth, in addition to finding the determinants of foreign direct investment ...inflows in Pakistan using the annual data set for the period of 1980–2014. Simultaneous equation model has been used to find relation between the variables of concern. Results from technique and composition effects show that increase in economic growth leads towards more pollution emissions. Scale effect shows stock of capital and labor have positive effect on the economic growth of Pakistan while pollution has negative effect on growth. In case of capital accumulation effect, economic growth and foreign direct investment have positive and significant effect on stock of capital. Although increase in economic growth increases pollution, however, economic growth declines as pollution crosses a certain limit. Foreign direct investment is also found positively related with pollution.
•Relationship between economic growth and pollution emission in Pakistan is examined.•A 3SLS model is employed.•Physical capital stock matters in economic growth.•Economic growth declines after particular level of pollution emission.
Abstract
Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced ...labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981–2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3–0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981–2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.
We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based ...estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.
Illuminating economic growth Hu, Yingyao; Yao, Jiaxiong
Journal of econometrics,
June 2022, 2022-06-00, 20220601, Letnik:
228, Številka:
2
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This paper seeks to illuminate national accounts GDP growth using satellite-recorded nighttime lights in a measurement error model framework. Using recently developed results in conjunction with ...reasonable assumptions about the exogeneity of the lights data generating process, we identify and estimate the relationship between nighttime light growth and GDP growth, as well as the nonparametric distribution of errors in both measures. We obtain three key results: (i) the elasticity of nighttime lights to GDP is about 1.3; (ii) national accounts GDP growth measures are less precise for low and middle income countries, and nighttime lights can play a big role in improving such measures; and (iii) our new measure of GDP growth, based on the optimal combination of nighttime lights and national accounts data under our identification assumptions, implies that China and India had considerably lower growth rates than official data suggested between 1993 and 2013. We expect our statistical framework and methodology to have a broad impact on measuring GDP using additional information.
What role do local officials’ incentives play in regional economic growth? How do local officials behave under promotion pressure? This paper studies the unintended impact of mayors’ promotion ...incentives on regional economic growth and subnational-level GDP manipulation in China. We employ a regression discontinuity design that accounts for age restrictions in deciding promotions for mayors. We find that when GDP performance is prioritized in officials’ promotion evaluations (before 2013), mayors’ promotion incentives significantly increase the statistical GDP growth rate by 3.4 percentage points. However, their effects on nighttime light and other non-manipulable real economic growth indicators are close to zero. This gap can be attributed to GDP manipulation under our empirical framework. The above pattern no longer persists after 2013, when the role of GDP statistics in mayoral promotions was reduced. Our findings indicate that GDP manipulation makes performance-based competition between mayors devolve into a data manipulation game.
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