•Rotary screw trap and spawning data can be integrated during analyses.•Juvenile survival, growth, and movement estimates had minimal bias under simulated conditions.•Integrated models allow for the ...estimation of unobserved demographic rates.•Integrated models are useful in facilitating adaptive management.
Managers invest substantial resources to promote recovery of declining anadromous fish stocks. Recovery strategies are manifold and often include management actions intended to stimulate somatic growth, increase in-river survival, and motivate juvenile outmigration during favorable environmental conditions. Evaluating the efficacy of these management actions is difficult, however, because monitoring data that explicitly track individuals from egg deposition to juvenile outmigration are typically lacking. We developed an integrated population model that links two different and often collected types of anadromous fish monitoring data: spawning ground surveys and rotary screw trap juvenile catch data. The integrated model accounts for incomplete detection and uses the two sources of data to estimate juvenile demographic parameters in a multistate framework. We evaluated the model's performance using simulated data under a range of conditions typically encountered in similar surveys. Simulation results indicated that the model estimated juvenile survival, growth, and movement with no-to-minimal bias (i.e., ≥ 50 % of simulations ± 0–0.05). As an example case study, we fit the model to empirical fall-run Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) monitoring data collected in California's Central Valley, U.S.A. In doing so, we evaluated the influence of environmental conditions (e.g., discharge, water temperature) and habitat availability on juvenile demographic rates. We demonstrated that through our integrated approach we could estimate state transition probabilities that are typically inestimable for naturally produced, unmarked juvenile fish when using traditional statistical approaches to analyze these types of monitoring data. Furthermore, the structure of our model can serve as a useful foundation for decision-support models within adaptive management programs by directly linking management actions, decision-support-model predictions, and monitoring.
The management of social-ecological systems often presents a complex and wicked problem due to interactions between natural processes and varied, sometimes opposing, stakeholder goals. The adaptive ...management and participatory modelling processes are often used either to manage or in support of the management of social-ecological systems but are not always used in concert. We suggest that these processes are naturally complementary with overlapping components and between-process feedback. As such, we advocate that adaptive management should make use of participatory modelling for the management of social-ecological systems to increase stakeholder communication, confidence, and participation, streamline management strategy development, and improve management strategy application and durability. We present a translation of the typical adaptive management cycle concept to a spiral format, as well as a representation of adaptive management and participatory modelling proceeding together as interconnected spirals.
A conceptual representation showing the relationship between the adaptive management (AM) spiral (blue curve) and the participatory modelling (AM) spiral (green curve, modified after Parrott, 2017). The PM spiral is constrained by the trajectory of the AM spiral, but model development and management processes can proceed at independent rates. With each revolution of the spirals, the radii of both the AM and PM spirals increase, indicating the improved management effectiveness as learning occurs over time and models and management approaches grow more appropriate to the system under evaluation. This representation highlights that the modelling spiral does not occur at a single specific stage during the adaptive management spiral and instead that the two processes iterate at independent rates with constant potential for feedback within and between processes. Display omitted
•Adaptive management and participatory modelling have common methods and goals.•We propose linking the two processes as intertwined spirals.•This linkage may increase stakeholder engagement and management impact.
The purpose of this article is to investigate effective reformism: strategies that innovation networks deploy to create changes in their environment in order to establish a more conducive context for ...the realization and durable embedding of their innovation projects. Using a case study approach, effective reformism efforts are analyzed in a technological innovation trajectory related to the implementation of a new poultry husbandry system and an organizational innovation trajectory concerning new ways of co-operation among individual farms to establish economies of scale. The findings reinforce the idea, emerging from a complexity perspective on agricultural innovation systems, that interaction between innovation networks and their environment is only steerable to a limited extent. Nonetheless, innovation networks can enhance effective reformism by creating tangible visions that serve as vehicles to create understanding about the innovation and mobilize support for it, and by employing several kinds of boundary spanning individuals that are able to forge effective connections between innovation networks and their environment. Because innovation networks can only partially influence their institutional environment, and because unintended consequences of actions and random events influence the course of the innovation process, innovation network actors need to continuously re-interpret the contexts in which they move. This constant reflection by the innovating actors on their position vis-à-vis their environment needs to be supported by dedicated facilitators and monitoring and evaluation methods aimed at system learning. This implies that agricultural innovation policies should, instead of aiming to fully plan and control innovation, foster the emergence of such flexible support instruments that enable adaptive innovation management.
There is an increasing interest in introducing ecosystem services (ESs) and landscape ecological risk (LER) into environmental policies and governance. Yet, we know little about how to integrate LER ...into real decision-making and ESs management. Using the ESs valuation method and the models of InVEST and LER, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of cropland food production, carbon storage, water yield, biodiversity index and LER of Bailongjiang watershed (BLJW), China in 1990, 2002 and 2014, and the relationship between them. We found clear spatial differences in both ESs and LER levels in BLJW during the study period. The cropland food production service kept rising, and the areas of high yield mainly distributed in the loessal regions of BLJW with intensive human population. The carbon storage, water yield and biodiversity index first decreased and then increased. The LER was higher in the areas along the valleys with low elevation and intensive human activities. The regional ecological zoning based on overlay analysis of ESs with LER is effective for providing interactive spatial knowledge for adaptive landscape management. Our results illustrate the integrative approach on linking landscape ecological risk with ecosystem services is a comprehensive and helpful methodology for both regional risk reduction and ecosystem services enhancement at landscape scale.
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•Watershed ecosystem services and landscape ecological risk were assessed and mapped.•Clear spatial changes in ecosystem services and landscape ecological risk were found.•A novel method proposed to link landscape ecological risk with ecosystem services.•Overlay zoning lays scientific foundation to implement adaptive landscape management.
Iterative near-term ecological forecasting Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
02/2018, Letnik:
115, Številka:
7
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering ...these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfra-structure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.
Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ...ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social‐ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social‐ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean.
ABSTRACT
Seagrass meadows are vital ecosystems in coastal zones worldwide, but are also under global threat. One of the major hurdles restricting the success of seagrass conservation and restoration ...is our limited understanding of ecological feedback mechanisms. In these ecosystems, multiple, self‐reinforcing feedbacks can undermine conservation efforts by masking environmental impacts until the decline is precipitous, or alternatively they can inhibit seagrass recovery in spite of restoration efforts. However, no clear framework yet exists for identifying or dealing with feedbacks to improve the management of seagrass ecosystems. Here we review the causes and consequences of multiple feedbacks between seagrass and biotic and/or abiotic processes. We demonstrate how feedbacks have the potential to impose or reinforce regimes of either seagrass dominance or unvegetated substrate, and how the strength and importance of these feedbacks vary across environmental gradients. Although a myriad of feedbacks have now been identified, the co‐occurrence and likely interaction among feedbacks has largely been overlooked to date due to difficulties in analysis and detection. Here we take a fundamental step forward by modelling the interactions among two distinct above‐ and belowground feedbacks to demonstrate that interacting feedbacks are likely to be important for ecosystem resilience. On this basis, we propose a five‐step adaptive management plan to address feedback dynamics for effective conservation and restoration strategies. The management plan provides guidance to aid in the identification and prioritisation of likely feedbacks in different seagrass ecosystems.
The Natural Sediment Regime in Rivers WOHL, ELLEN; BLEDSOE, BRIAN P.; JACOBSON, ROBERT B. ...
Bioscience,
04/2015, Letnik:
65, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Water and sediment inputs are fundamental drivers of river ecosystems, but river management tends to emphasize flow regime at the expense of sediment regime. In an effort to frame a more inclusive ...paradigm for river management, we discuss sediment inputs, transport, and storage within river systems; interactions among water, sediment, and valley context; and the need to broaden the natural flow regime concept. Explicitly incorporating sediment is challenging, because sediment is supplied, transported, and stored by nonlinear and episodic processes operating at different temporal and spatial scales than water and because sediment regimes have been highly altered by humans. Nevertheless, managing for a desired balance between sediment supply and transport capacity is not only tractable, given current geomorphic process knowledge, but also essential because of the importance of sediment regimes to aquatic and riparian ecosystems, the physical template of which depends on sediment-driven river structure and function.
Background
Climate change and human activities continue to drive a widespread decline in global mangrove coverage, undermining their capacity to provide ecosystem benefits. While global and local ...scale drivers of change on mangroves are widely acknowledged, the relative importance and the exposure of mangroves to climatic, geomorphological, and direct human threats vary spatially. Understanding the role and relative importance of the multiscale and multiple threats to mangroves and how these vary spatially is fundamental for formulating a spatially adaptive approach to their management and conservation.
Aim
Our study investigated the role of multiple threats on mangroves and the relative exposure.
Location
Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region.
Time period
Recent past (2002–2019 and future (2050–2060).
Major taxa studied
Mangrove.
Methods
Using satellite‐derived indicators of mangrove condition aggregated over 19 years (2002 to 2019) and 14 proxies of climate, human activity, and geomorphology, we applied machine learning methods to determine the role and relative importance of the change drivers. Using outputs from this deductive statistical process, we applied inductive methods to map mangrove exposure spatially.
Results
Model results highlight the importance of catchment erosion, human pressure, sea level, and macroclimate as the main drivers of the present‐day ecological condition of mangroves in the WIO. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was more sensitive to the identified drivers than the vegetation condition index (VCI), with the relative importance of variables varying across the two vegetation indicators.
Main conclusions
In anticipation of a stronger manifestation of climate change impacts, the resilience of mangroves in the WIO could be improved through adaptive management over time and space. Testing the efficacy of the essential biodiversity variables (EBV) is critical for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem change and managing biodiversity change.
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