Display omitted
•A forecast of mixed municipal solid waste (MSW) and sorted food waste to 2050.•The article combines econometrics and policy scenarios in MSW projections.•Results show mixed MSW from ...159 to 340 million metric tons (MMT) in China by 2050.•Sorted food waste in China is expected up to 74 MMT by 2030 and 109 MMT by 2050.•The analysis suggests near-term MSW incineration over capacity in several provinces.
A shift is underway in China, from perceiving municipal solid waste (MSW) as a strictly environmental concern to identifying MSW as a resource. China exhibits a growing focus on using MSW in the energy sector while putting more emphasis on waste sorting and recycling in general and sorting food waste in particular. Timely planning of MSW treatment capacity requires reliable forecasts of future MSW quantities and their characteristics. This article uses econometric analysis to perform regional specific projections for collected MSW. Four scenarios are presented, three of which include sorting of food waste from the mixed MSW stream and/or capping mixed MSW generation. In the different scenarios, aggregated on a national level, mixed MSW ranges from 159 million metric tons (MMT) to 340 MMT and sorted food waste from MSW from zero to 109 MMT in 2050. Conclusions show that sorting of food waste will create stable levels of mixed MSW in many provinces and that there is a risk of overinvestments in MSW incineration capacity in most provinces.
International tourism of today is considered one of the main levers of job creation, generating income and foreign currency and foreign investment. Over the past few years, international tourism has ...been growing steadily, but at the same time this same growth is threatened by challenges in the form of various external shocks affecting the volatility of tourism. Volatility is described, according to many authors, as an unpredictable measure of the intensity of variations. These variations are associated with unpredictable crisis situations or events commonly referred to as ‘new shocks’ (e.g. terrorism, epidemics, natural disasters, exchange rate volatility, oil price, political (in)stability, wars, and various forms of criminal activities). Such global events have a profound impact on a wide range of political, legal and social dimensions. Tourism is extremely vulnerable to various external and internal shock e. The appearance of exogenous events in destinations changes the characteristics of tourism at the destination level, affecting the tourist demand, but also on the economic situation of the country.
Fiscal Policy in the COVID‐19 Era1 Murphy, Chris
Economic papers (Economic Society of Australia),
June 2023, Letnik:
42, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This paper analyses the COVID recession and the large fiscal policy response by modelling scenarios using a macro‐econometric model. The COVID recession mainly arose from lower household consumption ...of certain services under COVID social distancing. The fiscal response to compensate for income losses in those service industries meant that unemployment was around 2 percentage points lower for 3 years than otherwise would have been the case. However, there was over‐compensation: for every $1 of income the private sector lost under COVID, fiscal policy provided $2 of compensation. Following the end of social distancing, the aftereffects of over‐compensation and over‐prolonged loose monetary policy are modelled to have generated excess demand that temporarily added up to 3 percentage points to the annual inflation rate. Also, three forms of over‐compensation in the JobKeeper program that led the fiscal response created disincentive effects and inequities. The primary lesson for future pandemics is that fiscal policy should compensate, but not over‐compensate, for income losses, both in aggregate and at the program level. The secondary lesson is that monetary policy needs to take more account of the stimulus already provided by the fiscal response, so that interest rates do not remain very low for too long.
Egress behaviour of pedestrians in crowded complex confined spaces is investigated in this study. Despite recent methodological progress in the development of simulation tools for predicting crowd ...egress and evacuation, little is known based on empirical data about the underlying rules that govern exit wayfinding of pedestrians in multi-exit places. Particularly, fundamental differences between behavioural features of emergency and non-emergency egress have not been fully explored by previous studies. Stated-choice data was collected in face-to-face interviews with passengers as they exited a major railway station in Melbourne. Participants were asked what exit decision they would have made given certain hypothetical scenarios at that same station. Econometric models (error-component mixed logit) were developed to quantify the way passengers evaluate and prioritise various contributing factors while accommodating the potential decision heterogeneity. These factors include distance, crowding, visibility of exits, proximity of the exits to their destination, impact of other passengers’ decisions; and spatial distribution of exits. Key findings of our modelling suggest that (1) for nonemergency egress, proximity of the exit points to passenger's destination is a dominant factor although not the sole determinant. (2) In an emergency, passengers place a much higher priority on avoiding crowded exits compared to non-emergency situations. (3) Directional flows of pedestrians do not significantly impact on decisions made in a normal egress. (4) In an emergency evacuation, directional flows are considered as a negative utility factor by majority of individuals, although the perception of this factor is highly heterogeneous and also depends on the visibility of the exits targeted by the flow. The proposed static models can be incorporated with a broad range of crowd simulation methods as alternatives for heuristic modeller-defined exit choice rules. They accommodate the dissimilarities of egress behaviour between emergencies and non-emergencies, thereby enabling planners to conduct virtual simulations under either scenario.
•Studying navigation and wayfinding of pedestrians for exiting complex places•Exploring behavioural differences between emergency and normal egress•Conducting hypothetical navigational choice experiments in a transport station•Using error-component mixed logit model of discrete choice analysis•Estimating separate models for wayfinding under normal and emergency exit
Руководства большинства стран рассматривают динамику ВВП как показатель успешности экономической политики. Несмотря на важность и полезность измерения ВВП, он весьма ограниченно характеризует не ...только положение в обществе, но и ряд экономических характеристик развития. Целью настоящего исследования является изучение взаимосвязи уровня валового регионального продукта (ВРП) на душу населения и качества жизни населения в регионах России. Моделирование влияния ВРП на качество жизни населения на панельных данных с использованием пространственных фиксированных эффектов позволило получить хорошо специфицированные модели с высокой объясняющей способностью различий значений зависимой переменной. В частности, доказано существование постоянной эластичности интегрального показателя качества жизни населения в регионах России по подушевому ВРП (0,588). Расчет и анализ фиксированных эффектов российских регионов в динамике позволили оценить их потенциал обеспечения качества жизни, дополнительно к возможностям, созданным в результате распределения ВРП, а также эффективность региональной политики регионов России в сфере создания условий для поддержания качества жизни их населения. Отмечено, что в регионах, лидирующих по уровню интегрального показателя качества жизни, положительные фиксированные эффекты возрастают в течение периода наблюдения. Обратная динамика наблюдается для отстающих регионов. Поэтому растет неравенство (дифференциация) регионов в этой сфере. Таким образом, показано, что созданный ранее региональный задел в обеспечении качества жизни населения, не связанный с текущим подушевым ВРП, является ключевым фактором качества жизни населения в регионах России. Следовательно, интегральный показатель качества жизни в регионах России определяется в основном не уровнем текущего подушевого ВРП, а спецификой региона, долгосрочной региональной политикой в сфере распределения ВРП и обеспечения качества жизни в регионе. В связи с этим целесообразно, в частности для поддержки отстающих регионов, выявление лучших практик лидирующих регионов и распространение их для остальных.
Analysing household energy-saving behaviours is crucial to improve energy consumption predictions and energy policy making. How should we quantitatively measure them? What are their determinants? ...This study explores the main factors influencing residential energy-saving behaviours based on a bottom-up multivariate statistical approach using data from the recent French PHEBUS survey. Firstly, we assess energy-saving behaviours on a one-dimension scale using IRT. Secondly, we use linear regression with an innovative variable selection method via adaptive lasso to tease out the effects of both macro and micro factors on the behavioural score. The results highlight the impact of five main attributes incentivizing energy-saving behaviours based on cross-variable analyses: energy price, household income, education level, age of head of household and dwelling energy performance. In addition, our results suggest that the analysis of the inverted U-shape impact of age enables the expansion of the energy consumption life cycle theory to energy-saving behaviours.
•We examine the main factors influencing residential energy-saving behaviours.•We use data from the recent French PHEBUS survey.•We use IRT to assess energy-saving behaviours on a one-dimension scale.•We use linear regression with an innovative variable selection method via adaptive lasso.•We highlight the impact of five main attributes incentivizing energy-saving behaviours.
Education is the basis for poverty eradication and economic growth. Education provides the aim of this research is to explore educational and other environmental, economic and social determinants on ...poverty. The aim of this study is to measure an econometric estimation to measure the role of education on poverty reduction. The model was estimated using time series data from 1980 to 2018, using the Engle-Granger two-step co-integration technique, to obtain the economic long-term and short-term dynamic characteristics of education in reducing poverty rate in this era. This model is used to test the hypothesis that how education can uplift the economic progress of the country. Education significantly reduces the level of poverty, whereas the role of higher education seems more significant tool for alleviating poverty. The public and monetary sectors incorporate institutional features with relevant policy actions, while foreign sectors, particularly the oil sector, represent interactions with the rest of the world. A series of policy scenarios influence the industry-wide model, which is used to evaluate the government's various options for increasing economic productivity, resulting in sustained acceleration of growth and poverty reduction in the South Asian economics.
Agriculture production largely depends on weather conditions and is extremely prone to natural hazards. A more frequent and severe occurrence of natural hazards such as storms and floods has put food ...security at increased risk in recent decades. Evaluating the true impact (loss and damage) of disaster in the agriculture sector is very challenging. The present study focusses on using a zrandomized field experimental approach at both district and micro agricultural-plot levels to investigate the impact of floods on agricultural yields in Sri Lanka and its effect on farmers who are averse to taking risks and those who are willing to take risks. A detailed site selection technique has been used in the study. The dissimilarity in difference estimates indicates that flood-affected households have experienced the loss of paddy and non-paddy crops. However, the net loss of non-paddy is higher than that in paddy. Farmers offset this loss by expanding crop cultivated areas zthat utilize soaked fields after the flood, though there are risks of pest attack and diseases. The results are not driven by household-specific characteristics and are robust to several specifications, different crop types and alternative flood-severity measures.
PDF
