In flood risk assessment, there remains a lack of analytical frameworks capturing the dynamics emerging from two‐way feedbacks between physical and social processes, such as adaptation and levee ...effect. The former, “adaptation effect”, relates to the observation that the occurrence of more frequent flooding is often associated with decreasing vulnerability. The latter, “levee effect”, relates to the observation that the non‐occurrence of frequent flooding (possibly caused by flood protection structures, e.g. levees) is often associated to increasing vulnerability. As current analytical frameworks do not capture these dynamics, projections of future flood risk are not realistic. In this paper, we develop a new approach whereby the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies are explicitly accounted for. Moreover, we show an application of this approach by using a socio‐hydrological model to simulate the behavior of two main prototypes of societies: green societies, which cope with flooding by resettling out of flood‐prone areas; and technological societies, which deal with flooding also by building levees or dikes. This application shows that the proposed approach is able to capture and explain the aforementioned dynamics (i.e. adaptation and levee effect) and therefore contribute to a better understanding of changes in flood risk, within an iterative process of theory development and empirical research.
Key Points:
A novel approach to explore flood risk changes is developed
The approach explains the dynamics emerging from human‐flood interactions
Green societies tend to be less affected by increasing flood frequency
Abstract
Flooding is among the most prevalent natural hazards, with particularly disastrous impacts in low-income countries. This study presents global estimates of the number of people exposed to ...high flood risks in interaction with poverty. It finds that 1.81 billion people (23% of world population) are directly exposed to 1-in-100-year floods. Of these, 1.24 billion are located in South and East Asia, where China (395 million) and India (390 million) account for over one-third of global exposure. Low- and middle-income countries are home to 89% of the world’s flood-exposed people. Of the 170 million facing high flood risk and extreme poverty (living on under $1.90 per day), 44% are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Over 780 million of those living on under $5.50 per day face high flood risk. Using state-of-the-art poverty and flood data, our findings highlight the scale and priority regions for flood mitigation measures to support resilient development.
Abstract
We present 2241 exoplanet candidates identified with data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) during its 2 yr Prime Mission. We list these candidates in the TESS Objects of ...Interest (TOI) Catalog, which includes both new planet candidates found by TESS and previously known planets recovered by TESS observations. We describe the process used to identify TOIs, investigate the characteristics of the new planet candidates, and discuss some notable TESS planet discoveries. The TOI catalog includes an unprecedented number of small planet candidates around nearby bright stars, which are well suited for detailed follow-up observations. The TESS data products for the Prime Mission (sectors 1–26), including the TOI catalog, light curves, full-frame images, and target pixel files, are publicly available at the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.
The rapid development of urbanization has led to changes in the morphology and structure of the river system, exacerbating flooding in the basin and seriously affecting the regulation and storage ...capacity of the river system. We propose the evaluation indexes of the regulation and storage capacity, establish a hydrological–hydrodynamic model to investigate the effects of the polder‐type flood control pattern on the regulation and storage capacity during urbanization. The results show that the river system's static regulation and storage capacity exhibits a decreasing trend during the urbanization process. The change in static regulation and storage capacity of low‐grade rivers has a more significant impact on the total regulation and static storage capacity. The construction of polders increases the flood pressure of the river system and reduces the dynamic regulation and storage capacity. The smaller the size of the flood, the more pronounced the effect. With the increase in flood‐protected areas, the dynamic regulation and storage capacity gradually decreases, and minor flooding is more sensitive to the number of polders.
As exposure to coastal hazards increases there is growing interest in nature-based solutions for risk reduction. This study uses high-resolution flood and loss models to quantify the impacts of ...coastal wetlands in the northeastern USA on (i) regional flood damages by Hurricane Sandy and (ii) local annual flood losses in Barnegat Bay in Ocean County, New Jersey. Using an extensive database of property exposure, the regional study shows that wetlands avoided $625 Million in direct flood damages during Hurricane Sandy. The local study combines these models with a database of synthetic storms in Ocean County and estimates a 16% average reduction in annual flood losses by salt marshes with higher reductions at lower elevations. Together, the studies quantify the risk reduction ecosystem services of marsh wetlands. Measuring these benefits in collaboration with the risk modelling industry is crucial for assessing risk accurately and, where appropriate, aligning conservation and risk reduction goals.
Flood risk assessment methodology Šugareková, M
IOP conference series. Materials Science and Engineering,
12/2021, Letnik:
1209, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Abstract
Paper presents a proposal of the flood risk assessment methodology. The theoretical background is based on the multi-index conceptual models, which consists of three layers -objective layer, ...index layer and indicators layer. The fulfilment of the layer is based on the Reports on the course and consequences of floods in the territory of the Slovak Republic.
•Resilience benefit analysis framework proposed for urban flood control programs.•Relationship between urban flood control system resilience and multi-scale urban flood control programs is ...determined.•This framework is based on a Storm Water Management Model.•Entropy & Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method is used.
Urban flood frequencies have increased and will continuously increase due to global climate change and rapid urbanization, causing enormous economic problems and social impact. Resistant strategies are no longer the best option for disaster mitigation. Improving cities' resilience to external disruptions is becoming a more important method for mitigating the impact of urban flooding. However, there are relatively little research has been conducted on the resilience of urban flood control systems. The introduction of the concept of resilience can provide a new way of thinking for urban flood control research, which can help to understand the coping process of the system during heavy rainfall, emphasizing the absorption, resistance, and recovery stages to improve the system's adaptability to the changing environment and effectively alleviate the pressure of urban flooding. This study discusses the impact of the design and configuration of urban flood control programs on the resilience of the system under heavy rainfall. Moreover, the resilience benefit is presented to quantify the phased process of system resilience capacity for measuring the quantitative relationship between programs and system resilience. Finally, the unit annual average cost of the program is combined with the resilience benefit to make decisions and ensure that cities are effectively reducing the risk of urban flooding with the optimal alternatives. The proposed framework was applied to Zhangjiagang City, a highly urbanized and densely populated city in China. The results showed that (1) during the same rainfall event, the hydrological indicators characterizing the system’s resilience process (absorption, resistance, and recovery) have distinct weights; (2) rainfall has an effect on the index weight, and the weight fluctuates when the system responds to rainfall in distinct return periods; (3) rainfall return periods can have an impact on a program’s effectiveness in improving the system's resilience at various stages, and the extent to which different programs are affected by the return period varies; and (4) combining large-scale and micro-scale programs improve the resilience of the system more effectively, whereas concentrating on expanding storage volume without raising the water surface rate improves the resilience of the system less effective. This framework can be used to assess the improvements in resilience acquired from various urban flood control program configurations and to assist city planners in selecting the optimal configuration, so assisting in the decision-making process for urban planning and disaster mitigation.
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