Volcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400M years of Earth’s ...history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically-driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer-term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model to simulate a four-year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.
Naturally occurring ozone rich Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport (STT) intrusions and biomass burning plumes reaching the surface can contribute to exceedances of the U.S. National Ambient Air ...Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone (70 ppbv implemented in 2015). In addition, fires can inject significant pollution into the free troposphere where it can be transported long distances. The combined air quality impacts from these sources on ozone has only been analyzed in a few case studies for the Midwest U.S. Here we study ozone impacts in a major Midwestern city, for the first time in St. Louis, Missouri, using a series of ozonesonde profiles taken during the SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys) field campaign in August-September 2013. All ozonesondes showed some enhancements above the background profile levels (~55 ppbv) throughout each tropospheric column. Two models were used to estimate and quantify ozone origins within the columns. A chemical transport model identified enhancements from STT equivalent to 10to15 ppbv over the background with a 10 to15% contribution overall to the column. Two FLEXPART-WRF simulations, one with smoke in the boundary layer and the other with smoke above, identified enhancements from biomass burning equivalent to 10to 80 ppbv. Overall, the total biomass burning contribution is 15to 30% of the total column. Five ozonesondes showed signatures of mixed biomass burning plumes and STT intrusions. During this study period, biomass burning in the western U.S. contributed 70% to ozone enhancements in the total column compared to 3% from the central U.S and 27% from other areas.
A magnetosphere controls a planet's evolution by suppressing or enhancing atmospheric loss to space. In situ measurements of Uranus' magnetosphere from the Voyager 2 flyby in 1986 provide the only ...direct evidence of magnetospheric transport processes responsible for this atmospheric escape at Uranus. Analysis of high‐resolution Voyager 2 magnetic field data in Uranus' magnetotail reveals the presence of a loop‐like plasmoid filled with planetary plasma traveling away from the planet. This first plasmoid observation in an Ice Giant magnetosphere elucidates that (1) both internal and external forces play a role in Uranus' magnetospheric dynamics, (2) magnetic reconnection contributes to the circulation of plasma and magnetic flux at Uranus, and (3) plasmoids may be a dominant transport mechanism for mass loss through Uranus' magnetotail.
Understory fires represent an accelerating threat to Amazonian tropical forests and can, during drought, affect larger areas than deforestation itself. These fires kill trees at rates varying from < ...10 to c. 90% depending on fire intensity, forest disturbance history, and tree functional traits. Here, we examine variation in bark thickness across the Amazon. Bark can protect trees from fires, but it is often assumed to be consistently thin across tropical forests. Here, we show that investment in bark varies, with thicker bark in dry forests and thinner in wetter forests. We also show that thinner bark translated into higher fire-driven tree mortality in wetter forests, with between 0.67 to 5.86 gigatons CO2 lost in Amazon understory fires between 2001-2010. Trait-enabled global vegetation models that explicitly include variation in bark thickness are likely to improve the predictions of fire effects on carbon cycling in tropical forests.
The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide ...presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.
A series of eight olivine specimens were fabricated by hot-pressing at 1200 degrees Celsius and 300 megapascals (MPa). Each hot-pressed specimen was then wrapped in Pt, Ni or NiFe foil to vary oxygen ...fugacity (fO2), and interrogated via forced torsional oscillation. Mechanical testing was conducted at 10 oscillation periods between 1 and 1000 seconds, at a confining pressure of 200 MPa, during a slow staged-cooling from a maximum temperature of 1200 degrees Celsius to room temperature. After mechanical testing, each specimen was axially sectioned and EBSD (Electron BackScatter Diffraction) was used for the determination of the representative grain size, and grain size distribution of each sample. In addition, each longitudinal section was mapped via FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy) to determine the spatial distribution and concentrations of chemically bound and molecular water. Amongst these specimens, chemically bound ‘water’ contents were observed to vary between 0 and 1150 atom ppm (parts per million) H/Si, and molecular water concentrations varied between 0 and 245 atom ppm H/Si. Our forced-oscillation results demonstrate that the measured magnitude of anelastic relaxation within the experimental ‘window’ of oscillation periods is unrelated to the water content. Rather, a relationship was observed between the magnitude of anelastic relaxation and the prevailing redox conditions, which is influenced by the choice of metal sleeving used during the mechanical test. Further, regardless of water content or metal sleeving, each specimen exhibits coupled variations in shear modulus and dissipation within the observational window, indicative of ‘high-temperature background’ behavior, that can be described by a Burgers-type model. During initial fitting of the Burgers models, the unrelaxed shear modulus at a reference temperature of 900 degrees Celsius (G (sub UR)) and the temperature derivative of the unrelaxed shear modulus (dG (sub U)/dT), were treated as adjustable parameters. For all Fe-bearing olivine samples (but not a hydrous and oxidized Fe-free sample) we observe deficits of G (sub UR), and increased values of dG (sub U)/dT, relative to the expected elastic (anharmonic) behavior of Fo90 olivine. This behavior is indicative of anelastic relaxation occurring at shorter periods than observable within the ‘window’ of oscillation periods used in the mechanical test. Moving towards a comprehensive seismologically applicable Burgers model, which includes this newly observed effect of redox conditions on anelastic relaxation, we will present our progress in reconciling truly anharmonic and elastic behavior of Fo (sub 90) olivine with our observed forced-oscillation data.
All papers published in this volume have been reviewed through processes administered by the Editors. Reviews were conducted by expert referees to the professional and scientific standards expected ...of a proceedings journal published by IOP Publishing.1. Type of peer review:2. Conference submission management system: Morressier3. Number of submissions received: 211*4. Number of submissions sent for review: 207*5. Number of submissions accepted: 160 *6. Acceptance Rate (Submissions Accepted / Submissions Received × 100): 75.8 % *7. Average number of reviews per paper: 1.00 *8. Total number of reviewers involved: 103*9. Contact person for queries:Name: Linyan GuoAffiliation: China University of Geosciences, Beijing - School of Geophysics and Information TechnologyEmail: guoly@cugb.edu.cn* means value has been edited
Measurements provided by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft are analyzed to investigate the Martian magnetotail configuration as a function of interplanetary magnetic field ...(IMF) BY. We find that the magnetotail lobes exhibit a ~45° twist, either clockwise or counterclockwise from the ecliptic plane, up to a few Mars radii downstream. Moreover, the associated cross‐tail current sheet is rotated away from the expected location for a Venus‐like induced magnetotail based on nominal IMF draping. Data‐model comparisons using magnetohydrodynamic simulations are in good agreement with the observed tail twist. Model field line tracings indicate that a majority of the twisted tail lobes are composed of open field lines, surrounded by draped IMF. We infer that dayside magnetic reconnection between the crustal fields and draped IMF creates these open fields and may be responsible for the twisted tail configuration, similar to what is observed at Earth.
Low-cost particulate mass sensors provide opportunities to assess air quality at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. Established traditional monitoring networks have limited spatial ...resolution and are simply absent in many major cities across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Satellites provide snapshots of regional air pollution but require ground-truthing. Low-cost monitors can supplement and extend data coverage from these sources worldwide, providing a better overall air quality picture. We investigate the utility of such a multi-source data integration approach using two case studies. First, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, both traditional monitoring and dense low-cost sensor networks are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from NASA's MODIS system, and a linear conversion factor is developed to convert AOD to surface fine particulate matter mass concentration (as PM2.5). With 10 or more ground monitors in Pittsburgh, there is a 2-fold reduction in surface PM2.5 estimation mean absolute error compared to using only a single ground monitor. Second, we assess the ability of combined regional-scale satellite retrievals and local-scale low-cost sensor measurements to improve surface PM2.5 estimation at several urban sites in SSA. In Rwanda, we find that combining local ground monitoring information with satellite data provides a 40 % improvement in surface PM2.5 estimation accuracy with respect to using low-cost ground monitoring data alone. A linear AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 conversion factor developed in Kigali, Rwanda, did not generalize well to other parts of SSA and varied seasonally for the same location, emphasizing the need for ongoing and localized ground-based monitoring, which can be facilitated by low-cost sensors. Overall, we find that combining ground-based low-cost sensor and satellite data, even without including additional meteorological or land use information, can improve and expand spatiotemporal air quality data coverage, especially in data-sparse regions.
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