This study investigates the relationship between exports and output growth for a sample of 22 less developed Asian and African countries over the period 1969–1999. Our study goes beyond previous ...studies by using modern time series techniques organized around panel unit roots and panel cointegration tests to draw sharper conclusions from the short time series that are typically available in economics. In addition, the structural relationship between output growth and exports is estimated by fully modified OLS techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panel. The empirical findings suggest that output growth causes exports and not the reverse.
Cross-country estimations of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) to empirically
analyze the relationship between income and pollution have generally
assumed a common structure for all countries. ...Since this latter feature is not
supported by economic theory, this paper uses the Random Coefficient Model
proposed by Swamy (1970) and empirically estimates EKCs for sulfur dioxide
with specific turning points from a sample of 73 high and low income countries.
A crucial aspect is that there are large differences between the estimated turning
points of the EKCs for the different countries in the sample, which points to
the relevance of using the approach employed here since assuming a common
structure for all countries erroneously hides this relevant empirical feature.
Moreover, the analysis of the structure of the EKCs estimated suggests that
regulatory processes resembling market mechanisms could induce the empirical
emergence of EKCs. Finally, taking into consideration the most recent concerns
in the literature, we econometrically checked, on the one hand, for the validity of
the usual theoretical assumption of exogeneity of the per capita income variable
in the EKC relationship and, on the other hand, for an eventual structural change
causing the sign change in the pollution-per capita income relationship of the
EKC. The weak exogeneity and the structural break tests employed rendered
plausible that income per capita is really the driver variable determining the
EKC relationship found.
Key words: Environmental Kuznets Curve, random coefficients Las estimaciones que utilizan datos de grupos de países para comprobar la
existencia de la Curva Ambiental de Kuznets (en inglés, the Environmental
Kuznets Curve (EKC)), la que empíricamente analiza la relación entre ingreso
y contaminación, en general asumen una estructura común para todos los
países. Sin embargo, como este supuesto no se deriva de la teoría económica
y contradice la intuición, en este trabajo se emplea el modelo de Coeficientes
Aleatorios propuesto por Swamy (1970) para estimar empíricamente las EKCs
para SO2 (dióxido de sulfuro) y los puntos de quiebre específicos a partir de
una muestra de 73 países de alto y bajo nivel de ingreso. Un hallazgo crucial
es que existen amplias desigualdades entre los puntos de quiebre estimados de
las EKCs para los diferentes países en la muestra, lo cual indica la relevancia
del enfoque empleado porque el supuesto usual de una estructura común para
todos los países erróneamente esconde esta característica empíricamente relevante.
Más aún, el análisis de la estructura de las EKCs estimadas sugiere que
procesos reguladores que replican mecanismos de mercado pueden inducir la
emergencia de EKCs en los países que implementan tales procesos. Finalmente,
para hacerse cargo de los cuestionamientos más recientes en la literatura, este
trabajo testea econométricamente, por una parte, la validez del supuesto teórico
usual de la exogeneidad de la variable de ingreso per cápita en la relación de
EKC, y, por otra, la eventualidad de que un cambio estructural sea responsable
del cambio de signo en la relación contaminación-ingreso per cápita de la EKC.
Los tests de exogeneidad débil y de quiebre estructural empleados indican la
plausibilidad de que la variable de ingreso per cápita sea realmente la variable
causante que determina la relación de EKC encontrada.
Do Regional Price Levels Converge? Dreger, Christian; Kosfeld, Reinhold
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
06/2010, Letnik:
230, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
We investigate price level convergence on the base of regional data for 439 German districts. Prices refer to the overall consumer price index as well as to the index without housing prices. To ...increase the efficiency of the testing framework, the analysis is based on panel unit root tests. First and second generation tests are applied. They indicate a lack of regional price convergence, as the null hypothesis of a unit root is usually not rejected. The second generation tests reveal that the source of the unit root is likely common for all regions. The results are very similar for the overall regional price level and the measure without housing prices, and for the Western and Eastern part of the German economy. The elimination of housing prices is not sufficient to obtain a price index where tradables dominate. One rationale of our findings is the persistent west-east divide in consumer prices. A second argument is related to the persistence of the price gradient between urban and rural regions.
This article estimates whether FDI flows-and other relevant variables-have had a positive and significant effect on Latin America's private investment spending over the 1980-2002 period. It is one of ...the first empirical studies to investigate the complementarity hypothesis between domestic private investment and FDI flows using recently developed panel unit root and panel co-integration analysis for the period in question. The article also addresses the important issue of whether changes in the real exchange rate (expenditure-switching policies) have a contractionary effect on the economies of Latin America. The results suggest that (lagged) gross FDI, public investment spending, and real credit to the private sector have a positive and significant effect on private capital formation, while lagged changes in the real exchange rate, particularly its volatility, as measured by the period standard deviation, have a negative effect. The article also finds that net FDI flows (a variable which deducts repatriation of profits and dividends) remain significant but their impact is reduced by more than half relative to their gross FDI counterpart.
Cross-country estimations of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) to empirically
analyze the relationship between income and pollution have generally
assumed a common structure for all countries. ...Since this latter feature is not
supported by economic theory, this paper uses the Random Coefficient Model
proposed by Swamy (1970) and empirically estimates EKCs for sulfur dioxide
with specific turning points from a sample of 73 high and low income countries.
A crucial aspect is that there are large differences between the estimated turning
points of the EKCs for the different countries in the sample, which points to
the relevance of using the approach employed here since assuming a common
structure for all countries erroneously hides this relevant empirical feature.
Moreover, the analysis of the structure of the EKCs estimated suggests that
regulatory processes resembling market mechanisms could induce the empirical
emergence of EKCs. Finally, taking into consideration the most recent concerns
in the literature, we econometrically checked, on the one hand, for the validity of
the usual theoretical assumption of exogeneity of the per capita income variable
in the EKC relationship and, on the other hand, for an eventual structural change
causing the sign change in the pollution-per capita income relationship of the
EKC. The weak exogeneity and the structural break tests employed rendered
plausible that income per capita is really the driver variable determining the
EKC relationship found.
Key words: Environmental Kuznets Curve, random coefficients
Las estimaciones que utilizan datos de grupos de países para comprobar la
existencia de la Curva Ambiental de Kuznets (en inglés, the Environmental
Kuznets Curve (EKC)), la que empíricamente analiza la relación entre ingreso
y contaminación, en general asumen una estructura común para todos los
países. Sin embargo, como este supuesto no se deriva de la teoría económica
y contradice la intuición, en este trabajo se emplea el modelo de Coeficientes
Aleatorios propuesto por Swamy (1970) para estimar empíricamente las EKCs
para SO2 (dióxido de sulfuro) y los puntos de quiebre específicos a partir de
una muestra de 73 países de alto y bajo nivel de ingreso. Un hallazgo crucial
es que existen amplias desigualdades entre los puntos de quiebre estimados de
las EKCs para los diferentes países en la muestra, lo cual indica la relevancia
del enfoque empleado porque el supuesto usual de una estructura común para
todos los países erróneamente esconde esta característica empíricamente relevante.
Más aún, el análisis de la estructura de las EKCs estimadas sugiere que
procesos reguladores que replican mecanismos de mercado pueden inducir la
emergencia de EKCs en los países que implementan tales procesos. Finalmente,
para hacerse cargo de los cuestionamientos más recientes en la literatura, este
trabajo testea econométricamente, por una parte, la validez del supuesto teórico
usual de la exogeneidad de la variable de ingreso per cápita en la relación de
EKC, y, por otra, la eventualidad de que un cambio estructural sea responsable
del cambio de signo en la relación contaminación-ingreso per cápita de la EKC.
Los tests de exogeneidad débil y de quiebre estructural empleados indican la
plausibilidad de que la variable de ingreso per cápita sea realmente la variable
causante que determina la relación de EKC encontrada.
Using two real exchange rate data sets, we implement a new form of unit root test. In particular, we use a panel unit root test to jointly test for a unit root in a group of OECD real exchange rates ...for the recent floating experience. In contrast to many other unit root tests using a similar data set, we are able to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root.
We explain that China is an “attractor” of FDI because its FDI inflows increased steadily even though the world FDI inflows have decreased considerably in recent years. It is indeed “strange” or ...“chaotic” since its rates of FDI return are below the world average and predictions of its economic crisis or collapse are abundant. We find that Hong Kong and Taiwan are predominant players (40–60% of total FDI), followed by the United States and EU, and the size of investment is generally very small. The concept of the China Circle should be expanded to the East Asia Circle, which is experienced by Taiwan and Korea in earlier decades. We also considered some important characteristics, including the regional distribution, geographic proximity, and cultural similarity of these countries. To avoid spurious regressions, we use panel unit root and cointegration tests developed in the last few years. The results from panel data regressions explain our observations quite satisfactorily.
Using panel data, this paper tests whether public and private capital have a positive and significant effect on aggregate output and labor productivity for Mexico during the 1960-2001 period. The ...richer information set made possible by the sectorial data enables this study to utilize the methodologically sound "group-mean" fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) procedure developed by Pedroni to generate consistent estimates of the relevant panel variables in the cointegrated production (labor productivity) function. The results suggest that, in the long run, changes in the stocks of public and private capital and the economically active population (EAP) have a positive and economically significant effect on output (and labor productivity). The period is also broken down into two sub-periods: 1960-1981 (state-led industrialization) and 1982-2001 (neoliberal model). The estimate for the public capital variables clearly shows that it had a relatively more important economic effect during the earlier state-led period.
In this study we investigate the long run relationship between dividends and corporate valuation with the use of panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. The long run relationship is ...estimated using fully modified OLS for a panel consisting of 479 firms listed on the London Stock Exchange over the time period 1984-2007. The empirical results provide clear support for the hypothesis that there is a single equilibrium relation between market value, book value, earnings and dividends, and that dividends have a positive impact on corporate valuation.
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