Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from ...small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions, with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.
We analyze the auto-correlations of all European Union (EU) indices and the cross-correlation between the UK stock market and the other EU markets. This analysis took into account the BREXIT ...referendum, on the 23rd of June 2016 and the entire period was partitioned in two periods, before and after the BREXIT referendum. First of all, we applied the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis method (with the regular and with a sliding windows approach) in order to evaluate market efficiency. In this case, we found that in general the referendum did not change efficiency levels significantly. With the main purpose of measuring the markets interdependence in relation to the UK index, following the referendum, we calculated the ΔρDCCA coefficient. Our results point to a decrease in the cross-correlation coefficient (ΔρDCCA<0), meaning that the UK is more segmented now, in relation to other EU partners, than in the past. With ΔρDCCA it was possible to identify how much the referendum influenced the interdependence, but not the efficiency, of European markets.
•The BREXIT referendum is study by DFA method for the Euro zone.•In general, the referendum did not change efficiency levels significantly.•We also calculated the ΔρDCCA coefficient, and our results point to ΔρDCCA<0.•This meaning that the UK is more segmented now than in the past.
In 2018, Ireland voted to remove its constitutional ban on abortion in almost all circumstances. This overturned a previous decision by referendum to institute such a ban in 1983. The scale of the ...change in Irish society that this vote has displayed is significant, representing an even further shift towards a more socially liberal outlook than that seen in the marriage referendum of 2015. As with the previous referendum, this referendum is also of interest to scholars of deliberative processes, given the key role played by Ireland's Citizens' Assembly in progressing the debate and shaping both the referendum question and the draft legislation that was to follow. This report provides the historical context of this referendum with regard to Ireland's previous abortion regime and antecedent referendums on this topic, as well as discussing the deliberative processes and the dynamics of the referendum campaign itself.
In direct democracies, voters are faced with considerable information demands. Although search engines are an important gateway to political information, it is still unclear what role they play in ...citizens’ information behavior regarding referendum campaigns. Moreover, few studies have examined the search terms that citizens use when searching for political information and the potential “user-input biases” in this regard. Therefore, we investigate to what extent citizens search online for information about upcoming referendums and what differences emerge between proponents, opponents, and non-voters regarding the search terms they used and the results they visited, related to three national ballot proposals voted on in Switzerland on November 28, 2021. The study combines cross-sectional survey data with longitudinal digital trace data containing participants’ Google Search histories obtained through data donations. Our findings show that participants rarely used Google to search for information about upcoming referendums. Moreover, most ballot-related searches employed rather neutral search terms. Nevertheless, a qualitative analysis of the search terms points to differences between different voting groups, particularly for the most prominent proposal around a Covid-19 law. The study provides interesting insight into how citizens search for information online during national referendum campaigns.
Scotland is not the only sub‐state unit in Europe where relevant political actors make claims for independence. To generate insights on these independence demands, we compare the drivers, arguments ...and popular support for secession in Scotland, the Basque Country, Catalonia and Flanders. We argue that national identity, party politics and the economy are behind the independence requests, and the exact articulation of these elements varies from case to case. Currently, the most salient of these demands are the ones from Catalonia; Basque demands for self‐determination are less prominent than in the past, whereas the demand for a vote on independence is much less articulated in Flanders. Although the Scottish independence referendum has set a precedent for solving independence disputes, we argue that the possibilities of exporting the Scottish referendum experience to other realities are limited.
The victory of the radical-left SYRIZA in the September 2015 election confounded expectations given the failure of the SYRIZA-ANEL government formed in January either to deliver on its central ...promise of reversing austerity policies or to capitalise on its major victory in the July referendum. The article examines both the election and the referendum that preceded it, offering an explanation for SYRIZA's victory. It also attempts to trace the trajectory of the current party system in Greece and its ongoing realignment process in light of the 2015 electoral contests and the busy political timeline since the formation of the first SYRIZA-ANEL government.
Despite the outpouring of scholarship on the motivations behind the 2016 EU referendum result and the preliminary impact of Brexit on British politics, comparatively little time has been spent ...analysing the government(s) entrusted with implementation. This article aims to address this gap in the literature, examining government management of the Brexit process as a case study through which to illustrate the continued relevance of the British Political Tradition in British politics. It argues that through Brexit implementation, the May government initiated a process of centralisation of both policy-making influence and administrative resources within Whitehall. This process was shielded externally by appeals to the referendum result as an imperative mandate parliament was obliged to implement. Although the political landscape of May’s premiership was characterised by flux, these internal shifts towards centralisation in the executive are proposed to have had a more sustained impact through the reassertion of aspects of Britain’s ‘power-hoarding’ constitutional settlement.
Much research on Brexit has studied whether the vote to leave the EU is a marker of growing prejudice. In this article, we study instead how the relationship between support for Brexit and prejudice ...is constructed, negotiated and contested in lay discourse. Our analysis of focus groups (N = 12) conducted prior to and following the EU referendum shows that support for Brexit was predominantly constructed as based on nationalism and anti‐immigration prejudice, especially in Remain‐supporting accounts. This prompted identity management strategies and counter‐arguments by Leave supporters, such as providing alternative constructions of prejudice and racism; relating Brexit with “progressive” values; and presenting it as rational and economically sound. In our discussion, we draw attention to the “ideological creativity” that underpins these accounts and also reflect on the possibilities and constraints of developing alternative political narratives under conditions of political polarisation.
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