The regression kink (RK) design is an increasingly popular empirical method for estimating causal effects of policies, such as the effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment duration. Using ...simulation studies based on data from existing RK designs, we empirically document that the statistical significance of RK estimators based on conventional standard errors can be spurious. In the simulations, false positives arise as a consequence of nonlinearities in the underlying relationship between the outcome and the assignment variable, confirming concerns about the misspecification bias of discontinuity estimators pointed out by Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik. As a complement to standard RK inference, we propose that researchers construct a distribution of placebo estimates in regions with and without a policy kink and use this distribution to gauge statistical significance. Under the assumption that the location of the kink point is random, this permutation test has exact size in finite samples for testing a sharp null hypothesis of no effect of the policy on the outcome. We implement simulation studies based on existing RK applications that estimate the effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment duration and show that our permutation test as well as inference procedures proposed by Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik improve upon the size of standard approaches, while having sufficient power to detect an effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment duration. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits Kolsrud, Jonas; Landais, Camille; Nilsson, Peter ...
The American economic review,
04/2018, Letnik:
108, Številka:
4-5
Journal Article
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This paper provides a simple, yet robust framework to evaluate the time profile of benefits paid during an unemployment spell. We derive sufficient-statistics formulae capturing the marginal ...insurance value and incentive costs of unemployment benefits paid at different times during a spell. Our approach allows us to revisit separate arguments for inclining or declining profiles put forward in the theoretical literature and to identify welfare-improving changes in the benefit profile that account for all relevant arguments jointly. For the empirical implementation, we use administrative data on unemployment, linked to data on consumption, income, and wealth in Sweden. First, we exploit duration-dependent kinks in the replacement rate and find that, if anything, the moral hazard cost of benefits is larger when paid earlier in the spell. Second, we find that the drop in consumption affecting the insurance value of benefits is large from the start of the spell, but further increases throughout the spell. In trading off insurance and incentives, our analysis suggests that the flat benefit profile in Sweden has been too generous overall. However, both from the insurance and the incentives side, we find no evidence to support the introduction of a declining tilt in the profile.
We examine how a 16-week cut in potential unemployment insurance (UI) duration in Missouri affected search behavior of UI recipients and the aggregate labor market. Using a regression discontinuity ...design (RDD), we estimate marginal effects of maximum duration on UI and nonemployment spells of 0.45 and 0.25, respectively. We simulate the unemployment rate implied by the RDD estimates assuming no market-level externalities. The implied response closely approximates the decline in the unemployment rate following the benefit cut, suggesting that, even in a period of high unemployment, the labor market absorbed the influx of workers without crowding out other job seekers.
This essay represents the collective vision of a group of scholars in vocational psychology who have sought to develop a research agenda in response to the massive global unemployment crisis that has ...been evoked by the COVID-19 pandemic. The research agenda includes exploring how this unemployment crisis may differ from previous unemployment periods; examining the nature of the grief evoked by the parallel loss of work and loss of life; recognizing and addressing the privilege of scholars; examining the inequality that underlies the disproportionate impact of the crisis on poor and working class communities; developing a framework for evidence-based interventions for unemployed individuals; and examining the work-family interface and unemployment among youth.
This paper develops a new method to estimate the trend unemployment rate in which the duration profile of unemployment hazards is taken into account. The duration profile is characterized by three ...time-varying elements—level, slope, and curvature. The model also recovers the duration component of trend unemployment rate and the trend mean duration of unemployment. The estimated trend unemployment rate declines by about 3 percentage points between 1980 and 2019. Its short-term duration component decreases, whereas the long-term component increases, resulting in a rise in the trend mean duration of unemployment. The opposite trends in duration components suggest falling frictional unemployment but rising structural unemployment.
With the emergence of the Great Recession unemployment insurance (UI) is once again at the heart of the policy debate. In this paper, we review the recent theoretical and empirical evidence on the ...labor market effects of UI design. We also discuss policy issues related to UI design, including the structure of benefits, the role of liquidity constraints and the pros and cons of a UI system in which the generosity of UI benefits is varying over the business cycle. Finally, we identify potential areas of future research.
In response to the recession of 2007–2009, the maximum duration of U.S. unemployment insurance (UI) benefits was extended to an unprecedented 99 weeks. We exploit variation in the timing and size of ...the UI benefit extensions across states to estimate their overall impact on unemployment exits, comparing the most recent and prior extension episodes. We find a small but statistically significant increase in labor force attachment due to extended UI in both periods with little or no impact on job finding. Despite these small estimates, extended benefits can account for a substantial share of the increase in long-term unemployment.
We provide new evidence on the effect of the unemployment insurance (UI) weekly benefit amount on unemployment insurance spells based on administrative data from the state of Missouri covering the ...period 2003-2013. Identification comes from a regression kink design that exploits the quasi-experimental variation around the kink in the UI benefit schedule. We find that UI durations are more responsive to benefit levels during the recession and its aftermath, with an elasticity between 0.65 and 0.9 as compared to about 0.35 pre-recession.
Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) data for 2005–8, we find that unemployed persons who look for work online are re-employed about 25% faster than comparable workers who do not ...search online. This finding contrasts with previous results for 1998–2001, and is robust to controls for cognitive test scores and detailed indicators of Internet access. Internet job search (IJS) appears to be most effective in reducing unemployment durations when used to contact friends and relatives, to send out resumes or fill out applications and also to look at advertisements. We detect a weak positive relationship between IJS and wage growth between jobs.
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