We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and mortality rates. We fit Vector-autoregressions for the overall US population and for ...groups identified based on gender and race. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment shock to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race and gender, resulting in a significant increase in mortality rates and drop in life expectancy. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while the effects for white men will unfold over longer horizons. These figures translate in more than 0.8 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.
This paper employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that ...such a model offers an excellent description of the data compared to the benchmark model and can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy. Our estimates imply that the efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy since July 2009 succeeded in making the unemployment rate in December 2013 1% lower, which is 0.13% more compared to the historical behavior of the Fed.
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 FERNALD, JOHN G.; HALL, ROBERT E.; STOCK, JAMES H. ...
Brookings papers on economic activity,
04/2017, Letnik:
2017, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, even though the unemployment rate has essentially returned to a precrisis, normal level. We use a growth-accounting ...decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: the slow growth of total factor productivity, and the decline in labor force participation. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces that are largely unrelated to the financial crisis and recession—and that were in play before the recession.
We examine whether aggregate cost stickiness predicts future macro-level unemployment rate. We incorporate aggregate cost stickiness into three different classes of forecasting models studied in ...prior literature, and demonstrate an improvement in forecasting performance for all three models. For example, when adding cost stickiness to an OLS regression that includes a battery of macroeconomic indicators and control variables, we find that a one-standard-deviation-higher cost stickiness in recent quarters is followed by a 0.23 to 0.26 percentage point lower unemployment rate in the current and following quarter. In out-of-sample tests, we find significant reductions in the root mean squared errors upon incorporation of cost stickiness for all three models. Additional tests suggest that professional macro forecasters, particularly those employed in nonfinancial industries, do not fully incorporate the information contained in cost stickiness. Finally, we find a stronger predictive power of cost stickiness toward the end of recessionary periods; we also assess cross-sectional variation of this predictive ability.
Human-induced carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) is the main source of global warming. This work is aimed to systematically explore the effects of human factors on CO2. To this end, this paper ...investigates the effects of population aging, life expectancy, population density, unemployment rate, per capita GDP, urbanization on per capita CO2 using linear panel data analysis and panel threshold regression approach for 154 countries. The results show that there is no threshold value between unemployment rate and per capita CO2, and between urbanization and per capita CO2, indicating that the effects of unemployment rate and urbanization on per capita CO2 is linear. Urbanization contributes to the increase in per capita CO2, which is offset by the unemployment rate. In addition, there are threshold values between aging and per capita CO2, between life expectancy and per capita CO2, between population density and per capita CO2, and between per capita GDP and per capita CO2. This means the effects of aging, life expectancy, population density, per capita GDP on per capita CO2 are nonlinear. The contribution effect of per capita GDP on per capita CO2 decreases with the increase in per capita GDP. The inhibitory effects of population aging, life expectancy on per capita CO2 increase with the increase in the degree of aging and life expectancy, respectively. Whereas the inhibitory effect of population density on per capita CO2 decreases with increase in the population density. The empirical analysis of 154 countries further confirms the complexity and heterogeneity of the impact of human factors on carbon emissions.
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This paper develops a new method to estimate the trend unemployment rate in which the duration profile of unemployment hazards is taken into account. The duration profile is characterized by three ...time-varying elements—level, slope, and curvature. The model also recovers the duration component of trend unemployment rate and the trend mean duration of unemployment. The estimated trend unemployment rate declines by about 3 percentage points between 1980 and 2019. Its short-term duration component decreases, whereas the long-term component increases, resulting in a rise in the trend mean duration of unemployment. The opposite trends in duration components suggest falling frictional unemployment but rising structural unemployment.
This study goal to scrutinize the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment in five selected European economies. To this end, the study uses a Fourier causality test for the period of ...December-2019 to December-2020. In Z-test results, Germany, Spain, and the UK have a significant positive change in unemployment due to COVID-19. The finding shows that COVID-19 cases cause unemployment for Germany, Italy, and the UK. Moreover, in terms of deaths, COVID-19 also causes unemployment in Italy and UK. Overall, the study's outcomes highlight that the pandemic increases the unemployment rate robustly in the mostly European economies. That is one of the rare negative effects of the virus on the European labor market. Novel COVID-19 findings provide a reliable guide to the future policy implication for the labor market. An active labor market policy will be needed to be in front of the world urgently.
This study examines the effect of immigration on sector unemployment rates in Japan from 2009 to 2018. While previous studies have explored the effects of immigration using either nationwide or ...regional unemployment rates, analysis by industry units has been rarely conducted. The results of the analysis reveal that unemployment rates decrease with an increase in the number of immigrant workers in industry sectors with labor shortages; otherwise, they are neutral to the labor market. Since the analysis using industry sector units provides different implications from that using geographic units, it underscores industry-specific immigration effects in the study of unemployment rates.
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