Given the importance of crop yield and yield progress, this review endeavours to clearly define the different representations of yield, discuss their measurement, and elucidate some controlling ...factors in yield change. For a field, farm, district or region, average farm or actual yield (FY) is central, but potential (and water-limited potential) yield (PY, PYw) is also an important yardstick. PY is defined here as the measured yield of the best cultivar, grown with optimal agronomy and without manageable biotic and abiotic stresses, under natural resource and cropping system conditions representative of the target area. Economic yield, governed by considerations of profit and risk, and record and theoretical yield, complete the picture. Yield gap is defined as the difference between PY and FY under the same environment. Across most crop-region combinations in the last 2 to 3 decades, FY progress has been associated with both PY progress and yield gap closing, and a simple model, based on linear regression against time, is proposed for understanding this. PY advance is the result of plant breeding and new agronomy (and their interaction, usually positive), while yield gap closing arises with the adoption by farmers of known innovations faster than new ones are invented. Unravelling the true technological component in apparent progress in PY, and especially in FY, is not necessarily simple, and confounding factors are listed and discussed.
ABSTRACT
Climate variability and change can have important impacts for crop production. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate projections of the wheat yield in an increasingly warm ...climate. To address our objectives, we determined relationships between wheat yield in Spain and large‐scale variables. Partial least squares regression was applied to determine the modes of the climate variables that drive wheat‐yield variability, revealing a significant influence of surface solar radiation. Based on seasonal patterns of solar radiation, we determine models to estimate inter‐annual wheat‐yield variability. We find that the performance of the models based on solar radiation is better than that of earlier studies based on temperatures and precipitation variables. In this way, we use simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to project wheat‐yield trend under warming climate by implementing direct statistical downscaling. The expected range of projected wheat yield trend for 21st century indicates decreases of about 6–8% across Spain. The suggested models could be applied for adaptation and planning.
•Cruciform biaxial tensile specimens in RD/TD and 45°/135° directions are tested.•Developed new material parameters calibration procedure for Poly6 yield criterion.•Improved evaluation strategy to ...verify validity and applicability of yield criteria.•Biaxial data measured in RD/TD are insufficient to confirm the material models.•Directions of plastic strain rate are critical to evaluate plastic potential functions.
Uniaxial and cruciform biaxial tensile tests are performed on a face-centered cubic material AA6016-T4 and a body-centered cubic material DP490 under 19 different loading paths, i.e., uniaxial tension in seven directions, simple shear along the rolling direction, and biaxial tension in rolling/transverse and 45°/135° directions, with seven and four stress ratios, respectively. The ability of several yield criteria to describe the plastic anisotropy for the tested materials, under the associated and non-associated flow rules, is evaluated systematically. A new evaluation strategy to check the validity and applicability of the material models is proposed in this study. This strategy is different from the traditional evaluation strategy in that the biaxial tensile mechanical properties measured in the 45°/135° sampling direction are included in the investigation scope, and it is not limited to the rolling/transverse sampling direction, i.e., the yield stress functions are evaluated by comparing the experimental and predicted uniaxial yield stresses and plastic work contours on the normal and diagonal planes. Further, the plastic potential functions are confirmed by the description accuracy of uniaxial rα-values and the directions of plastic strain rate in the rolling/transverse and 45°/135° directions. A new analytical calibration program is developed for the material parameters of the Poly6 yield criterion related to normal (a1,a2,...,a7) and shear stress components (a8,a9,...,a16), which can further introduce the yield stresses under the near plane strain states (σPS0, σPS45, and σPS90) and pure shear yield stress along the rolling direction (τ0). The results indicate that the new calibration strategy of Analytical Poly6-II&2 can accurately describe the anisotropic yield behavior of the tested materials compared with other advanced yield criteria, especially for plastic work contours on the diagonal plane. Significant anisotropic yield behavior was observed under biaxial tensile stress states with the same loading ratio in different sampling directions. Therefore, investigating the prediction accuracy of the biaxial tensile mechanical properties in only the rolling/transverse sampling direction is insufficient for evaluating the effectiveness of the material models; the mechanical properties at the initial yield point cannot fully reflect the plastic anisotropy of the materials. The material parameters of the Analytical Poly6-II&2 yield criterion are expressed as functions of equivalent plastic strain, which can continuously capture the evolution of the anisotropic yield behavior for AA6016-T4 and DP490. Three different calibration strategies of the material parameter a16 are evaluated in this study. These strategies do not affect the description ability of the uniaxial yield stresses, rα-values, and plastic work contours on the normal plane; however, they influence the calculation results of plastic work contours on the diagonal plane. For attaining a balanced prediction accuracy, it is recommended to provide the values of both τ0 and σPS45.
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► We define the concepts relevant for yield gap analysis. ► We review different methods for local and global yield gap analyses. ► Global methods are coarse and local studies use different methods. ► ...A number of methods is compared using data sets from three regions. ► Components of a protocol for global yield gap analysis with local relevance are proposed.
Yields of crops must increase substantially over the coming decades to keep pace with global food demand driven by population and income growth. Ultimately global food production capacity will be limited by the amount of land and water resources available and suitable for crop production, and by biophysical limits on crop growth. Quantifying food production capacity on every hectare of current farmland in a consistent and transparent manner is needed to inform decisions on policy, research, development and investment that aim to affect future crop yield and land use, and to inform on-ground action by local farmers through their knowledge networks. Crop production capacity can be evaluated by estimating potential yield and water-limited yield levels as benchmarks for crop production under, respectively, irrigated and rainfed conditions. The differences between these theoretical yield levels and actual farmers’ yields define the yield gaps, and precise spatially explicit knowledge about these yield gaps is essential to guide sustainable intensification of agriculture. This paper reviews methods to estimate yield gaps, with a focus on the local-to-global relevance of outcomes. Empirical methods estimate yield potential from 90 to 95th percentiles of farmers’ yields, maximum yields from experiment stations, growers’ yield contests or boundary functions; these are compared with crop simulation of potential or water-limited yields. Comparisons utilize detailed data sets from western Kenya, Nebraska (USA) and Victoria (Australia). We then review global studies, often performed by non-agricultural scientists, aimed at yield and sometimes yield gap assessment and compare several studies in terms of outcomes for regions in Nebraska, Kenya and The Netherlands. Based on our review we recommend key components for a yield gap assessment that can be applied at local to global scales. Given lack of data for some regions, the protocol recommends use of a tiered approach with preferred use of crop growth simulation models applied to relatively homogenous climate zones for which measured weather data are available. Within such zones simulations are performed for the dominant soils and cropping systems considering current spatial distribution of crops. Need for accurate agronomic and current yield data together with calibrated and validated crop models and upscaling methods is emphasized. The bottom-up application of this global protocol allows verification of estimated yield gaps with on-farm data and experiments.
For sustainable biomass production of Miscanthus × giganteus (hereafter miscanthus), understanding the impact of stand age and nitrogen (N) fertilization on biomass yield is crucial. This study ...investigated the effects of varying N fertilization rates (0, 56, 112, and 168 kg N ha−1) on yield components (tiller height, density, and weight) and their correlations with end‐of‐season biomass yield in miscanthus. We also explored end‐of‐season biomass yield prediction using in‐season traits (canopy height, leaf area index, and leaf chlorophyll content LCC). The study was conducted at two sites in Illinois: a previously unfertilized 10‐year‐old miscanthus research stand at Urbana and a 16‐year‐old commercial stand at Pesotum with a history of annual 56N application. Results from 2018 to 2021 in Urbana and 2020 to 2021 in Pesotum showed increased biomass yields with N fertilization, varying by rate, year, and location. Biomass yield in Pesotum peaked at 56N, while in Urbana, it increased significantly at 112 kg N ha−1. Biomass yield was strongly correlated with tiller height and weight measured at Urbana across N rates. Morphological traits measured every 2–3 weeks during the 2020 and 2021 growing seasons showed that canopy height was the strongest single predictor of miscanthus biomass yield, followed by LCC. Mid‐August to September measurements of these traits were the best predictors of biomass yield. Multiple regressions involving the canopy height and LCC further improved yield predictions. We conclude that while N enhances biomass yields of aging miscanthus, the optimum rate depends on the site, environmental conditions, and management history.
Nitrogen enhances the biomass yield of mature miscanthus, but optimum rates may vary depending on site‐specific factors, environmental conditions, and management history.
•The effects of fertilization on yield trend and sustainable yield index were studied.•The contribution rate of soil capacity in paddy and wheat fields rose over time.•The combined use of both manure ...and chemical fertilizer can improve crop grain yield.•Mixed manure with fertilizer use can improve crop yield stability and sustainability.•Sustainable yield index indicates that rice yield is more sustainable than wheat yield.
Little is known about the effects of different fertilizers and manure use on the yield stability and sustainability of crop in a rice-wheat cropping system. Therefore, a 34-year field experiment (conducted from 1982 to 2015) was used to evaluate the effect of continuous application of inorganic fertilizers and organic manure, supplied at different combinations, on the stability and sustainability of rice and wheat yields. Eight treatments consisted of unfertilized control (CK), inorganic fertilizers (N, NP, NPK) and organic manure (M) either alone or in combination (MN, MNP, MNPK). There was no significant trend of rice grain yield over time for any of the treatments. Wheat yield had an increasing tendency in all the fertilization treatments, including the unfertilized control. Organic manure in combination with chemical fertilizer supported high rice and wheat yields and sustainable yield index (SYI), with decreased coefficient of variance (CV) of rice and wheat yields. The SYI value clearly indicates that rice yield was more sustainable than wheat yield. In conclusion, the combined use of both organic manure and inorganic fertilizer can improve not only crop grain yield but also yield stability and sustainability.
•A novel approach was developed to investigate causes of yield gap over large regions.•The approach combines producer survey data with a robust spatial framework.•Soybean in the North-Central USA was ...used as study case to evaluate the approach.•Regional yield gap averages 22% (rainfed) and 13% (irrigated) of the yield potential.•Sowing date was the most consistent management factor explaining the yield gaps.
Identification of causes of gaps between yield potential and producer yields has been restricted to small geographic areas. In the present study, we developed a novel approach for identifying causes of yield gaps over large agricultural areas with diversity in climate and soils. This approach was applied to quantify and explain yield gaps in rainfed and irrigated soybean in the North-Central USA (NC USA) region, which accounts for about one third of soybean global production. Survey data on yield and management were collected from 3568 producer fields over two crop seasons and grouped into 10 technology extrapolation domains (TEDs) according to their soil, climate, and water regime. Yield potential was estimated using a combination of crop modeling and boundary functions for water productivity and compared against highest producer yields derived from the yield distribution in each TED-year. Yield gaps were calculated as the difference between yield potential and average producer yield. Explanatory factors for yield gaps were investigated by identifying management practices that were concordantly associated with high- and low-yield fields. Management×TED interactions were then evaluated to elucidate the underlying causes of yield gaps. The chosen spatial TED framework accounted for about half of the regional variation in producer yield within the NC USA region. Across the 10 TEDs, soybean average yield potential ranged from 3.3 to 5.3 Mgha−1 for rainfed fields and from 5.3 to 5.6Mgha−1 for irrigated fields. Highest producer yields in each TED were similar (±12%) to the estimated yield potential. Yield gap, calculated as percentage of yield potential, was larger in rainfed (range: 15–28%) than in irrigated (range: 11–16%) soybean. Upscaled to the NC USA region, yield potential was 4.8Mgha−1 (rainfed) and 5.7Mgha−1 (irrigated), with a respective yield gap of 22 and 13% of yield potential. Sowing date, tillage, and in-season foliar fungicide and/or insecticide were identified as explanatory causes for yield variation in half or more of the 10 TEDs. However, the degree to which these three factors influenced producer yield varied across TEDs. Analysis of in-season weather helped interpret management×TED interactions. For example, yield increase due to advances in sowing date was greater in TEDs with less water limitation during the pod-setting phase. The present study highlights the strength of combining producer survey data with a spatial framework to measure yield gaps, identify management factors explaining these gaps, and understand the biophysical drivers influencing yield responses to crop management.
The face-centered cubic medium-entropy alloy NiCoCr has received considerable attention for its good mechanical properties, uncertain stacking fault energy, etc, some of which have been attributed to ...chemical short-range order (SRO). Here, we examine the yield strength and misfit volumes of NiCoCr to determine whether SRO has measurably influenced mechanical properties. Polycrystalline strengths show no systematic trend with different processing conditions. Measured misfit volumes in NiCoCr are consistent with those in random binaries. Yield strength prediction of a random NiCoCr alloy matches well with experiments. Finally, we show that standard spin-polarized density functional theory (DFT) calculations of misfit volumes are not accurate for NiCoCr. This implies that DFT may be inaccurate for other subtle structural quantities such as atom-atom bond distance so that caution is required in drawing conclusions about NiCoCr based on DFT. These findings all lead to the conclusion that, under typical processing conditions, SRO in NiCoCr is either negligible or has no systematic measurable effect on strength.
There is a critical need for sensitive remote sensing approaches to monitor the parameters governing photosynthesis, at the temporal scales relevant to their natural dynamics. The photochemical ...reflectance index (PRI) and chlorophyll fluorescence (F) offer a strong potential for monitoring photosynthesis at local, regional, and global scales, however the relationships between photosynthesis and solar induced F (SIF) on diurnal and seasonal scales are not fully understood. This study examines how the fine spatial and temporal scale SIF observations relate to leaf level chlorophyll fluorescence metrics (i.e., PSII yield, YII and electron transport rate, ETR), canopy gross primary productivity (GPP), and PRI. The results contribute to enhancing the understanding of how SIF can be used to monitor canopy photosynthesis. This effort captured the seasonal and diurnal variation in GPP, reflectance, F, and SIF in the O2A (SIFA) and O2B (SIFB) atmospheric bands for corn (Zea mays L.) at a study site in Greenbelt, MD. Positive linear relationships of SIF to canopy GPP and to leaf ETR were documented, corroborating published reports. Our findings demonstrate that canopy SIF metrics are able to capture the dynamics in photosynthesis at both leaf and canopy levels, and show that the relationship between GPP and SIF metrics differs depending on the light conditions (i.e., above or below saturation level for photosynthesis). The sum of SIFA and SIFB (SIFA+B), as well as the SIFA+B yield, captured the dynamics in GPP and light use efficiency, suggesting the importance of including SIFB in monitoring photosynthetic function. Further efforts are required to determine if these findings will scale successfully to airborne and satellite levels, and to document the effects of data uncertainties on the scaling.
Quantifying the exploitable gap between average farmer yields and yield potential (
Y
P) is essential to prioritize research and formulate policies for food security at national and international ...levels. While irrigated maize accounts for 58% of total annual maize production in the Western U.S. Corn Belt, current yield gap in these systems has not been quantified. Our objectives were to quantify
Y
P, yield gaps, and the impact of agronomic practices on both parameters in irrigated maize systems of central Nebraska. The analysis was based on a 3-y database with field-specific values for yield, applied irrigation, and N fertilizer rate (
n
=
777).
Y
P was estimated using a maize simulation model in combination with actual and interpolated weather records and detailed data on crop management collected from a subset of fields (
n
=
123). Yield gaps were estimated as the difference between actual yields and simulated
Y
P for each field-year observation. Long-term simulation analysis was performed to evaluate the sensitivity of
Y
P to changes in selected management practices. Results showed that current irrigated maize systems are operating near the
Y
P ceiling. Average actual yield ranged from 12.5 to 13.6
Mg
ha
−1 across years. Mean N fertilizer efficiency (kg grain per kg applied N) was 23% greater than average efficiency in the USA. Rotation, tillage system, sowing date, and plant population density were the most sensitive factors affecting actual yields. Average yield gap was 11% of simulated
Y
P (14.9
Mg
ha
−1). Time trends in average farm yields from 1970 to 2008 show that yields have not increased during the past 8 years. Average yield during this period represented ∼80% of
Y
P ceiling estimated for this region based on current crop management practices. Simulation analysis showed that
Y
P can be increased by higher plant population densities and by hybrids with longer maturity. Adoption of these practices, however, may be constrained by other factors such as difficulty in planting and harvest operations due to wet weather and snow, additional seed and grain drying costs, and greater risk of frost and lodging. Two key points can be made: (i) irrigated maize producers in this region are operating close to the
Y
P ceiling and achieve high levels of N use efficiency and (ii) small increases in yield (<13%) can be achieved through fine tuning current management practices that require increased production costs and higher risk.
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