E-viri
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Luo, C; Li, R Z; Xu, Q Q; Xiong, P; Liu, Y X; Xue, F Z; Xu, Q; Li, X J
Zhōnghuá liúxíngbìng zázhì, 2017-Sep-10, Letnik: 38, Številka: 9Journal Article
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. The basic reproduction number ( (0)) for children in schools was 4.49 (95 : 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95 : 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014. Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.
