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Goenner, Cullen F.
The Financial review (Buffalo, N.Y.), November 2020, 2020-11-00, 20201101, Letnik: 55, Številka: 4Journal Article
The Great Financial Crisis shows that bank failure in the United States, while rare, is a concern during uncertain times. Interest here is in the ability to predict future failures at the start of a crisis, when the recent past has few events on which to base inferences. I show that policy makers using estimates based on the Savings and Loans crisis would identify in early 2009 that 2.0% of banks were in critical condition and 7.0% were unhealthy. This is comparable to the 1.7% of banks that failed within a year and the 3.9% of banks that would fail during the crisis.
