•The impact of passive measures on heating and cooling was assessed using MLR.•A bioclimatic potential analysis is helpful for future-proofing of single-family homes.•The opaque envelope U-value was the most relevant for the total and heating energy use.•The window area was the most relevant for the cooling energy use in present and future.•The relevance diagrams of passive parameters for the energy use were introduced. In the early phases of building design, it is essential to quantify the relevance of passive design measures in order to assure the desired thermal performance of buildings throughout their lifespan. In the present research work, the authors investigated the relevance of the selected passive design measures for heating and cooling energy use of single-family detached buildings at five European locations. To this end, a multiple linear regression analysis was performed, and least-squares estimates were used to identify the most relevant passive design measures under current and three future periods. The statistical analysis showed that the importance of passive design measures would change under the projected global warming effects. In general, the most relevant for the heating energy use of the analysed building models is the opaque envelope U value. Besides effective shading, the most relevant parameter affecting the cooling energy use is the window-to-floor ratio. Furthermore, relevance diagrams for the influence of passive design parameters on the resulting energy use under the climate change scenario and specific U values of the opaque envelope were defined. Building designers and policymakers can use them as design-support tool to find appropriate ways of converting the number of unknowns in future climate into information for designers and decision-makers to assure low vulnerability of the built environment to global warming.