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Cazzola, Alberto; Pasquini, Lucia; Angeli, Aurora
Demographic research, 2016, Letnik: 34Journal Article
Many analyses demonstrate that rising unemployment rates generate a feeling of uncertainty that can influence fertility behaviour, inducing a short-term reduction in fertility. The authors wish to evaluate whether the recent changes in male and female unemployment are differently linked to fertility in different geographic areas of Italy. They used the following official aggregate data for the period 1995-2012: unemployment quarterly rates from the Labour Force Surveys conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (Istat) and quarterly general fertility rates. They applied a monitoring approach for the identification of structural breaks inside both of the time series and used a dynamic regression to identify specific temporal links between unemployment and fertility. Both male and female unemployment rates are negatively associated with fertility in the northern and central regions of Italy. Unemployment rates seem to be good predictors of fertility in these regions, although male unemployment appears to further reduce fertility beyond the reduction predicted by female unemployment.
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in: SICRIS
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