The article explores oil and natural gas development in the Arctic. While several commentators have argued that an increase in Arctic petroleum production in the years to come will follow directly from an increased demand for energy, our study finds that oil and natural gas production in the Arctic is dependent on a range of variables. By using climate-driven changes as a baseline, we examine spill-over effects and conditions that are important for further Arctic hydrocarbon production. Using the available literature from different scientific fields, this article provides a broad and nuanced perspective on the much debated question of whether or not the Arctic will become a region driven by oil and gas production. ► We study Arctic oil and gas activity. ► We consider climate changes, economic conditions, and political institutions. ► Increased Arctic activity is conditioned on several factors. ► Climate changes, energy prices, energy demand, and political incentives drives Arctic activity.