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Vigeland, Magnus D.; Marsico, Franco L.; Herrera Piñero, Mariana; Egeland, Thore
Forensic science international : genetics, 11/2020, Letnik: 49Journal Article
Display omitted •Methods for selecting relatives most informative for genotyping.•Estimates of inclusion and exclusion power are obtained by conditional simulation.•Tailor-made power plots aid interpretation and decision making.•Examples based on unsolved cases of “Missing grandchildren of Argentina”.•All methods are freely available in the R package forrel. Missing person identification typically involves genetic matching of a person of interest against relatives of the missing person. In cases with few available relatives, exhumations or other substantial efforts may be necessary in order to secure adequate statistical power. We propose a simulation approach for solving prioritisation problems arising in such cases. Conditioning on the already typed individuals we estimate the power of each alternative, both to detect the true person, and to exclude false candidates. Graphical summaries of the simulations are given in complementary power plots, facilitating interpretation and decision making. Through a series of examples originating from the well-known Missing grandchildren of Argentina we demonstrate that our method may untangle complex prioritisation problems and other power-related questions. In particular we offer novel insights in recent cases where only children of the potential match are available for testing. We also show that X-chromosomal markers may give high statistical power in missing person identification, but that this requires careful selection of relatives for genotyping. All simulations, power calculations and plots are done with the R package forrel.
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