FSS, J. Goričar Central Social Sciences Library, Ljubljana (ODKLJ)
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Kitajci prihajajo: grožnja ali priložnost? : Izzivi tektonskih sprememb v svetu za razvoj SlovenijeSvetličič, Marjan ; Sicherl, PavleIzjemne pretekle in napovedovane stopnje rasti BRIK držav (Brazilija, Rusija, Indija in Kitajska) drastično spreminjajo ekonomsko podobo sveta. Članek analizira priložnosti in grožnje, ki jih taka ... predvidevanja predstavljajo za Slovenijo. Vse to v kontekstu ustreznih teorij ter analize prognoz razvoja svetovnega gospodarstva (med drugimi Goldman Sachs-a in Shell-a). Različni "kaj če" scenariji konvergence teh držav s slovenskim bruto domačim dohodkom na prebivalca (po kupni moči) so analizirani. Izračunana S-časovna distanca pokaže, da lahko Kitajska doseže sedanjo raven slovenskega BDP po prebivalcu nekje med letoma 2016 in 2021 (ob 8% stopnji rasti Kitajske leta 2019), čeprav je sedanja raven dohodkov na prebivalca v Sloveniji več kot 3 krat višja. Če pa bi bila razlika med stopnjami rasti obeh držav 4%, kar se zdi realistična predpostavka, potem bi se realna konvergenca lahko dogodila okoli l. 2034 oz. v 31 letih. Izračunani so scenariji pri različnih razlikah stopenj rasti. Čeprav je Slovenija nova članica EU bi morala skušati izkoristiti visoke stopnje rasti BRIK držav s krepitvijo ekonomskega sodelovanja z njimi. Kajti prirast svetovnega povpraševanja od njih in bo postal večji kot od sedaj razvitih držav.Source: Teorija in praksa : revija za družbena vprašanja. - ISSN 0040-3598 (Let. 43, št. 5-6, 2006, str. 690-715)Type of material - article, component partPublish date - 2006Language - slovenianCOBISS.SI-ID - 25647197
Author
Svetličič, Marjan |
Sicherl, Pavle
Topics
Mednarodno gospodarstvo |
International economy |
Ekonomske spremembe |
Economic changes |
Svetovno gospodarstvo |
World economy |
Kitajska |
China |
Slovenija |
Slovenia
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source: Teorija in praksa : revija za družbena vprašanja. - ISSN 0040-3598 (Let. 43, št. 5-6, 2006, str. 690-715)
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Database name | Field | Year |
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Links to authors' personal bibliographies | Links to information on researchers in the SICRIS system |
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Svetličič, Marjan | 09610 |
Sicherl, Pavle | 03881 |
Source: Personal bibliographies
and: SICRIS
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